From the New York Times:
A constitutional amendment that would allow Congress to outlaw debasing the American flag is again before lawmakers, and lobbyists on both sides say the conservative tilt of this Senate give the measure its best chance of Congressional approval since the Supreme Court ruled 16 years ago that flag burning was a form of protected speech.
The House, which has repeatedly passed the measure in earlier sessions, began debating it again on Tuesday and is expected to approve it overwhelmingly on Wednesday.
In the Senate, where it has never passed but where the Judiciary Committee is expecting to take it up right after the Fourth of July holiday, 65 member, only two fewer than needed if all 100 are present and voting, have voted for it in the past or said they will support it this time, lobbyist for the competing sides say.
Say hello to your next wedge issue. With the 2005 midterm elections coming up, the Republicans are worried that the American public will hold them responsible for such major issues as the war in Iraq, the economy, jobs, and high gas prices. Much of their agenda has stalled in the Senate, where they are facing a united Democratic opposition. Just yesterday, the Senate Republicans again failed to break the Democratic filibuster over John Bolton's nomination as United Nations ambassador. So when your agenda is stalled, what do you do? You could blame the Democrats for being obstructionist--as the Republicans and the Bush White House have repeatedly tried. But the problem there is that the Republican Party controls both Congress and the Presidency. They are responsible for finding a way to solve the nation's problems. Blaming the Democrats, who are now the minority party, shows the Republicans as being weak and petty-minded.
So we come to the wedge issues. This is an old page from the Republican campaign playbook. The Republicans play up the social issues as a means to both galvanize public support to their platform, and to deflect the American public's attention away from the serious political and economic problems this country faces. The Republicans have done this for abortion, gay marriage, Terri Schiavo, and now we have the constitutional amendment to flag burning. Ironically, this issue has now been raised as the president's poll numbers have been sinking, Bolton's nomination has failed, and the violence in Iraq still continues. The House will obviously pass this amendment. The Senate may pass this amendment by the end of this year, which George Bush will declare its passage as a great victory for patriotism, and for our sons and daughters fighting for American values and freedom. If the Senate does not approve the flag burning amendment, you can be the Republicans will use this a major campaign issue in key Senate races, possibly where Democratic Senators voted against this amendment.
I'm getting tired of listening to these insidious wedge issues. This country has far more serious problems to solve than burning a flag.
Fling93: There is a possibility that it may split the Republican Party. You are certainly right that the libertarian fiscal conservatives are disgruntled with the administration's generous fiscal spending, and the extreme Religious Right's lock on the party platform. The question is will these moderate and libertarian Republicans bolt to the Democrats?
ReplyDeleteIf the Democratic Party can provide concrete solutions towards the economy, the budget, and the war in Iraq, while stressing tolerance on the social issues, then I can see the shift. If the Democrats play the obstructionist game, as they are currently doing, then the only way for this issue to backfire and split the Republican ticket is for the economy to suffer a major financial crisis, or for the U.S. to have a major setback in Iraq (similar to how the Tet offensive changed U.S. public opinion in Vietnam). At this point, everything is in an uncertain flux.
What is certain is that both parties are playing the predictable political games--Republicans playing the wedge issues to divert public attention from their inability to solve the country's problems, and the Democrats playing the minority obstructionist game. The only variable that is going to resolve the outcome of this game is the uncertain future events to take place before the elections.
Fling: You're right. If the disgruntled Republicans stay at home, we're going to end up where we were in 2004--both parties catering to their extremist base, with moderate and independents disenfanchised again. The problem with both parties catering to their extremists is that the Republicans are better able to mobilize their hard-line supporters than the Democrats.
ReplyDeleteI suspect there is a large chunk of the voting electorate that is neither Democratic, or Republican, but rather centrist in their views of issues. These are the individuals who may oppose abortion (As a Republican issue), but support some form of gun control (as a Democratic issue). They are the individuals who may be willing to compromise certain issues for the good of the whole country. If the country remains committed to a middle pathway, then they could be content with the direction the country is heading. Unfortunatly in our extremist, win-at-all-costs, no compromise political battleground, the moderate base is disappearing.