SAN FRANCISCO (June 29) - A majority of California voters does not want to see Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger re-elected, according to the latest poll showing the Republican's political appeal sliding.
The nonpartisan Field Poll of registered voters found that just 39 percent said they were inclined to give Schwarzenegger a second term, while 57 percent were not. As recently as February, the numbers were almost reversed, with 56 percent saying they were inclined to re-elect Schwarzenegger and just 42 percent were not.
A series of polls released by Field researchers indicates Schwarzenegger has lost considerable ground among voters in recent months. The drop in the governor's popularity has coincided with his push for a fall special election for voters to consider several ballot measures aimed at curbing the power of Democrats and public employee unions in state government.
Earlier installments of the poll have shown that Schwarzenegger's job approval ratings have tumbled amid voters expressing skepticism about the special election and tepid support for his ballot measures.
Governator, like it or not, you're in trouble!
The biggest problem Schwarzenegger has is that he's aligned himself too far to the right with the special interest groups, and big business. These ballot issues are the perfect examples--teachers having five-year probation periods, redistricting maps drawn up by retired California judges, unions required to have permission slips signed by members before giving money to political campaigns? They've all been defeated before as initiatives by California voters. Why are they now so suddenly important for the Governator's reform that they must have a special ballot?
The only positive aspect in the AP story is that the Governator enjoys support among Republicans, with 71 percent inclined to re-elect him. But that's not much comfort when the majority of the state's registered voters are Democrats, and 83 percent of those Democrats would oppose a second term.
I would say that Schwarzenegger is pinning his political future in this special election, however, he is working subtly with this election. With about four months to go before the special election, I have not seen or heard anything about these ballot initiatives--either with local press coverage, or any type of political literature. This special election is quiet. In fact, I'm not sure what the ballot numbers are. With an election, there is always some form of campaign staff and money to be use to elicit votes for either a candidate or a ballot initiative. There has been nothing so far.
This makes me wonder. The only way for the Governator to push these initiatives through is to generate enough support among his own Republican base, while trying to keep the opposition quiet. Schwarzenegger may try a two-prong approach for this special election campaign. The first would be the big media-friendly-rally stops, where the Governator will be surrounded by adoring, American flag-waving fans, as he rants on the evil Democratic legislature who is obstructing California's reform. He probably won't say anything specifically about the ballot initiatives, but would rather say "Support me in my efforts at reforming California." It would be a sly, back-handed approach at asking for the Republicans to vote for his initiatives in the special election. The second approach would be a targeted marketing campaign towards those Republicans, with either email, or mass-mailed brochures, to also ask them to vote. Certain conservative talk-radio, or television shows could also have commercials supporting these propositions--targeted directly towards the conservative Republicans to vote for the Governator. Of course, these marketing campaigns would be targeted towards predominantly Republican voter districts. And while all this campaigning is going on, the Governator would be hoping these ballot initiatives don't get too much media press time, nor would the opposition campaign staff be given the media coverage to present their views against these ballot initiatives.
You could almost say that Schwarzenegger is trying his hand at a "stealth election" campaign.
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