The White House, along with the rest of the country, has known for months that President Bush was likely to have the chance to name a new chief justice.
But the president and his associates could not have known that when the opportunity arrived last night with the death of Chief Justice William H. Rehnquist, that Bush would be in a weakened state, thanks not only to the war in Iraq, but to rising gas prices and the spectacle of Hurricane Katrina and its aftermath.
President Bush has a major problem on his hands. His administration has been lurching from one crisis to the next, trying to fight forest fires with a garden hose. He has had to deal with continued violence and chaos in Iraq, while at the same time public support for the war has plummeted. His vacation at Crawford Texas has been plagued with Cindy Sheehan. While he was able to successfully introduce John Roberts as a replacement for Sandra Day O'Conner, new allegations of Robert's past judicial work for the government--and the White House stalling of releasing documents regarding Robert's work in the solicitor general's office--has started generating opposition to Robert's confirmation. And now Hurricane Katrina has destroyed New Orleans, with the administration being criticized for not quickly providing help to the Gulf Coast. And as a result of the destruction caused by Katrina on the nation's energy infrastructure, gas prices have started to rise at the pump, causing more anger among consumers.
To top it off, Chief Justice William Rehnquist dies.
So instead of one Supreme Court justice for Bush to select, he will have to choose two Supreme Court justices--with the Court slated to convene on the first Monday in October. Bush may choose to elevate one of the sitting justices to the top position--either Antonin Scalia or Clarence Thomas to Chief Justice. But even elevating Scalia or Thomas to the Chief Justice's chair would mean that Bush would still have to select another associate justice to their former associate justice seats. And elevating Scalia or Thomas to the Chief Justice position would not cause a major political fallout--both individuals would have an extensive Supreme Court judicial records, and would easily be confirmed. The problem would be finding an associate justice with the legal and ideological viewpoints that Bush and the Religious Right favors--i.e. opposing abortion--who would have an almost non-existent judicial record that Senate Democrats would be unable to pick over and force a confirmation hearings fiasco similar to the one that destroyed Robert Bork's confirmation hearings. And to see that these confirmation hearings will be completed--possibly by the end of this year, and certainly before the 2006 midterm election campaigning gets underway. Oh, and by the way, this Supreme Court selection is taking place under a backdrop of a war in Iraq, the Katrina disaster, high gas prices, and whatever other crisis may take place in the coming months (Hurricane Maria is already forming 530 miles east-southeast of Bermuda).
The Religious Right will continue to pressure Bush in selecting a hard-lined conservative to achieve their goal of overturning Roe. Senate Democrats, however, may just want to stall Robert's confirmation hearings until they learn who Bush will select as a new Chief Justice (Or an associate justice if Scalia or Thomas are elevated). Both political parties have a major stake in determining the ideological make-up of this court. The Republicans, under the Religious Right, will want to shift this court hard right with a conservative view. The Democrats want to maintain the court's status quo. However, the continued lurching from one crisis to another has politically weakened the Bush White House. His poll numbers have dropped dramatically, causing a large number of the American electorate to wonder if George Bush is living in a fantasyland. All of this has hurt Bush politically, and would cause another firestorm if Bush chooses to confront Senate Democrats with a politically controversial choice to the court. You could end up seeing both Roberts and the controversial nominee being stalled.
We will just have to wait and see who will Bush choose.
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