California Special Election: Voters Support Parental Notice

This is from the Los Angeles Times:

California voters narrowly favor an initiative on Tuesday's ballot to bar abortions for minors unless parents are notified, but are leaning against two prescription-drug discount measures, according to a new Los Angeles Times poll.

Likely voters also tilt strongly against Proposition 80, which would impose new rules on the electric power industry, the survey found.

The abortion, drug and electricity measures have been eclipsed for months by initiatives sponsored by Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and opposed by organized labor. A Times poll published Wednesday showed three of the governor's ballot measures losing and the fourth a tossup, in part hurt by a slump in his popularity.

Amid the raging television-ad fight between Schwarzenegger and the unions, many voters are unfamiliar with — or confused by — the prescription-drug and electricity proposals, said Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus. That has complicated efforts by the initiatives' proponents.

"When voters don't understand an initiative, they tend to vote no," she said.

Views are more set, however, on Proposition 73, the abortion measure, which 51% of likely voters support and 39% oppose. It would prohibit abortions for those younger than 18 until 48 hours after a doctor notified a parent or guardian. There would be some exceptions, including medical emergencies or a parental waiver of the notification rule.

Men tend to support parental notification more than women do, the poll found. Nearly six in 10 men back Proposition 73, but women are split almost evenly.

The measure is also favored by nearly two-thirds of those who attend religious services at least once a month, underscoring the potential value of the Republican Party's promotion of the measure among evangelicals and other conservative Christians. The proposal is most popular among Republicans, conservatives and the elderly.

The measure is least popular among Democrats and liberals, but their opposition is slightly outweighed by more intense support for the measure among Republicans and conservatives.

The No on 73 campaign, sponsored by abortion rights groups, began running a television ad against the proposal last week in the state's coastal areas, where voters are roughly split on the measure. In California's inland counties, a majority favors the proposal.

The poll results on the measure did not signal a change in the state's views about abortion; the survey found that 58% of likely voters believe abortion should be legal in most cases, while 39% say it should not. Fewer than one in 10 say it should be illegal even in cases of rape, incest or endangerment of a mother's life.

The poll also found no change in California's long-standing divisions over abortion. Though 87% of liberals and 65% of moderates favor legal abortion, 66% of conservatives oppose it. Roughly two-thirds of Democrats support it, while two-thirds of Republicans oppose it. Independents side with Democrats on abortion.

A couple things interest me about this story. The first is that the No On 73 campaign didn't start running TV advertising until last week in the coastal areas where the measure is split between voters. It is certainly getting pretty late in the game to start your television advertising, considering that the advertising campaigns for some of the other no campaigns (such as the written consent for union contributions, or teacher tenure changes) have been running for months now. They are going to have to really blanket the coverage in the coastal areas if they are going to have a chance in defeating this measure. There's also the standard poll results--men support the measure while women oppose it, Republicans and religious right-wingnuts support it, Democrats and liberals oppose it. And the inland and Southern California counties support it.

So I wonder if the No on 73 campaign had shot themselves into the foot?