Is it:
A) Proposition 75: Requires public-employee unions to get members written consent before donating to political campaigns.
B) Proposition 76: Permits governor to reduce state spending of his own choosing.
c) Proposition 77: Amends California constitution where retired judges redistricting plans.
D) All of the above.
If you chose D--all of the above, then you probably don't have a snowball's chance in Heck to be working in the Governator's office. From the Los Angeles Times:
By and large, the survey found the public siding with organized labor and its Democratic allies in their clash with the Republican governor. Only about a third of likely voters favor Proposition 76, his flagship proposal to curb state spending, and Proposition 77, his plan to give retired judges the job of drawing district maps for lawmakers.
Also in trouble is Proposition 75, Schwarzenegger's plan to require public-worker unions to get written consent from members each year before spending dues on political campaigns: 40% are for it, and 51% against it.
Beyond the ballot contests, the poll confirmed a steep dive in Schwarzenegger's popularity. His 69% job approval rating a year ago has plummeted to 40%. He remains popular with Republicans, but his support among Democrats has all but collapsed.
Like President Bush, another Republican with scant support beyond his party base, Schwarzenegger has polarized Californians, the poll found, with voters split starkly along party and ideological lines. Across the voter spectrum, his ratings are roughly in sync with Bush's.
In a state dominated by Democrats, the partisan rupture is harming Schwarzenegger's ballot measures. Democrats overwhelmingly oppose all four, while Republicans support all four, although not by such crushing margins.
Ironically, Proposition 74--the waiting period for school teachers would be increased from two years to five years--is a toss-up. The Times claims that:
More ambivalent are independents, a group that can sway California elections. Their support for Proposition 74, which would lengthen the time it takes teachers to get tenure from two years to five, is a key reason for the tight race on the measure.
The Governator's got a huge problem on his hands. His propositions are going down in flames, with less than a week to go before the special election. He's pretty much lost support for the moderates and independents. The only way for the Governator to get these propositions passed is to rally enough of his core Republican supporters down in the Republican-dominated southern California, while pretty much ignoring the rest of the state--and hoping that the liberals and Democrats who oppose his propositions will stay home on Election Day.
It is also ironic that most voters don't know what the propositions are in the first place. The Times continues on:
[T]he poll found voter opinion on his ballot measures less than solid, heightening the possibility of wide shifts in the campaign's final days. When read only the title of each initiative, more than one in five likely voters were undecided or had not heard enough to make up their minds. It was only after being read the full ballot description of each measure — a traditional polling technique — that many took a stand.
This can be both an advantage and disadvantage for the Governator. The key here is who is going to turn out to vote. If the Governator can get his core Republican constituents in Southern California out to vote in numbers, while hoping the rest of the state does not have a large turn-out, he may be able to get some propositions through. The problem is that he's alienated a large number of special interest groups that have mobilized against him. Big Labor, police, fire, nurses, and teacher's unions are against Prop 75 and have tarred Schwarzenegger with attempting to:
weaken unions and give business more clout in Sacramento. Given a choice, nearly two-thirds see it as an attempt to curb labor's influence in state politics, while a quarter say it is designed to protect union members' rights.
The poll also found that conservatives and Republicans are the only major voter groups that believe that unions wield too much influence in California, underscoring the appeal of Schwarzenegger's agenda to that segment of the electorate.
Those groups were also the only ones more likely to support his reelection because of his vetoes of bills that would allow same-sex couples to marry and grant driver's licenses to undocumented immigrants.
They also are his strongest supporters for Proposition 76, which would cap state spending growth, change minimum school funding rules and expand the governor's budget powers.
But Proposition 76 is losing handily, with 31% supporting it and 60% opposed. Of all the governor's proposals, it has generated the fiercest resistance: 92% of liberal Democrats are against Proposition 76. And even Republicans are split. Most conservative Republicans support it, but nearly six in 10 moderate Republicans oppose it.
Proposition 76 is an even bigger problem for the Governator. This initiative allows the Governator to reduce appropriations of the Governator's choosing. Basically, he can strike down whatever spending he chooses to, giving him incredible power. Instead of working with the Democratic legislature to craft compromised bills, the Governator is trying to make an end-run around the legislature by proposing this initiative. And it's going down in flames, along with Proposition 77--redistricting drawn up by retired judges. The Times reports:
Proposition 77 fares only slightly better, with 34% in favor of the redistricting measure and 56% opposed. Schwarzenegger argues that the current system of state legislators setting district boundaries for themselves and members of Congress has rigged elections for incumbents. He enlisted U.S. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) to make that case in a television ad, while foes have portrayed it as a Republican power grab.
The survey, overseen by Times Poll Director Susan Pinkus, was conducted by telephone from Oct. 26 to Oct. 31. The survey interviewed 1,405 registered voters, including 940 deemed likely to vote. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points for both groups.
We'll see what happens come Tuesday.
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