DEL MAR, Calif. - A Democratic school board member easily advanced to a runoff in the special election to replace convicted U.S. Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham, while lobbyist and former Republican Rep. Brian Bilbray appeared to have secured the chance to challenge her.
The second- and third-place finishers were fewer than 900 votes apart in the unofficial tally, though, and Republican Eric Roach considered that too close to call.
The winner of the June 6 runoff will serve the remaining eight months of Cunningham's term. Cunningham, a longtime Republican congressman who was convicted of tax evasion and bribing defense contractors, will be in federal prison.
"People know that this district today voted for change in Washington," election winner Francine Busby told supporters Tuesday night. "We sent a message that we will no longer accept business as usual."
Busby, who was trounced by Cunningham at the polls two years ago, topped an 18-candidate field Tuesday in the wealthy, heavily Republican Southern California district, but she didn't get the 50 percent of the vote necessary to prevent a runoff.
With 100 percent of the precincts reporting early Wednesday, Busby had 56,147 votes, or 44 percent. Bilbray had 19,366 votes, or 15 percent, followed by Roach, a political newcomer who spent $1.8 million on his own campaign, who had 18,486 votes, or 14 percent, according to unofficial results.
So Busby received 44 percent of the vote, while both Bilbray and Roach both received 15 and 14 percent of the vote. I will say that I'm surprised at how wide a lead Busby received in the vote percentages to Bilbray. Now consider this little detail in the story:
Turnout appeared light at the polls. Volunteers at a polling place in San Diego's Del Mar Heights neighborhood reported only 16 people had voted by lunchtime, and voters were scarce at a sampling of polling places.
John Towers, a 51-year-old Republican who voted for Roach, said he felt betrayed not only by Cunningham, but by the policies of the Bush administration.
"I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of Republicans are so disgusted they just stay home," said Towers, of Cardiff.
So turnout was light in this special election, and there is the possibility that the Republicans were disgusted at this mess, so they stayed home. I wonder how disgusted the Republicans are, and who are they directing their disgust against?
Looking at this election, I'm reminded of the memo Republican pollster Jan van Lohuizen sent to RNC chairman Ken Mehlman. Lohuizen linked President Bush's image with that of the Republican Party's image. This is from Lohuizen's memo:
We don't see signs of a depressed Republican turnout yet, but we have every reason to believe Democrats will turn out in high numbers. Anything we do to depress turnout, by not running as a unified party for instance, could very well lead to serious consequences in November.
I'm starting to wonder if Lohuizen's prediction of depressed Republican turnout is starting to become true. Over the past month, we have seen more and more revelations of White House lies and disinformation campaigns regarding the Iraq war. We have seen the New Hampshire phone-jamming scam of 2002 being linked to both the White House and RNC chairman Mehlman. Even this special election was undertaken to replace a Republican congressman convicted of taking bribes. We have the continued Abramoff scandal, the Tom DeLay scandal and resignation, and the Scooter Libby trial--which also revealed that the Bush administration authorized intelligence leaks to the press. All of this is placing pressure against the Republican Party. Republican Party politicians and officials are being forced to defend themselves, and the Republican Party, against these continued scandals, rather than trying to craft and project their own party image and policies.
And it is only going to get worst. If the scandals continue to batter the Bush White House, then you can expect the Republican congressmen to back away from appearing with President Bush in campaign rallies. President Bush could be viewed as "damaged goods," regarding campaign appearances, fundraising rallies and such. Republican congressmen may also start voting on legislation based on their own political survival, rather than toeing the White House line. And while Republicans would not attack President Bush by initiating congressional investigations into the many scandals, they may just distance themselves to legislation the Bush White House favors. So in one sense, the Republicans are starting to drive this wedge against the President, calculated as a means of survival for the congressional Republicans. Will this help them survive a possibly resurgent Democratic Party?
I can't say.
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