Monday, June 12, 2006

Al Qaeda in Iraq chooses Zarqawi successor

Well, it didn't take that long for al Qaeda choose a Zarqawi successor. From Yahoo News:

BAGHDAD (Reuters) - Al Qaeda in Iraq said its new leader named on Monday would keep up a campaign of beheadings and suicide bombings begun by the Jordanian militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who was killed by U.S. bombs last week.

The warning came on a day when violence, including two car bombs, killed at least 34 people.

"The shura council of al Qaeda in Iraq unanimously agreed on Sheikh Abu Hamza al-Muhajir to be a successor to Sheikh Abu Musab al-Zarqawi," said a statement signed by al Qaeda and posted on a Web site frequently used by Islamist militants.

"Sheikh Abu Hamza al-Muhajir is a good brother, has a history in jihad and is knowledgeable. We ask God that he ... continue what Sheikh Abu Musab began," it said.

First, you can expect the bombings, beheadings, and violence to continue in Iraq. But there is also an interesting little detail regarding this story:

Muhajir was not among the names al Qaeda experts had expected to succeed Zarqawi, a Sunni militant who U.S. and Iraqi officials said was seeking to spark a sectarian civil war.

Al Qaeda expert Fares bin Houzam said Muhajir could be a pseudonym for Egyptian militant Abu Ayyub al-Masri, who U.S. officials have said could succeed Zarqawi, or Saudi-born Sheikh Abu Hafs al-Qarni, whom al Qaeda named as Zarqawi's deputy last year in an Internet statement later retracted.

I'm wondering if al Qaida is adapting its command and PR structure? Zarqawi's name and face was probably fairly well known inside of Iraq. Zarqawi was likely working on both creating and expanding the military strategy for al Qaeda in Iraq, and he also presented himself as the public face for al Qaeda in Iraq. In short, Zarqawi became a high profile target for the U.S. military.

Now al Qaeda claims that this Muhajir will be the new leader for al Qaeda in Iraq. The problem is that nobody knows who Muhajir is. Since Zarqawi, and the next al Qaeda leader in Iraq, would continue to be a high profile target for the U.S. military, you can bet that al Qaeda would hide the identity of their leader from the U.S. military. In fact, I would also say that al Qaeda would also present their propaganda through a spokesman, and not through Muhajir--no more propaganda stunts such as Zarqawi firing machine guns in the desert. The problem here is that this top al Qaeda leadership position is being hidden under further layers of disinformation, making it even more difficult for the U.S. to even identify and track this Muhajir. The U.S. has had enough trouble tracking down Zarqawi over the past three years.

It may be next to impossible to determine who Muhajir really is.

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