Turkey plans to enter Iraq

I've seen this posted on Americablog, Shakespeare's Sister, Suburban Guerrilla, and I'm pretty sure a bunch of other blogs are picking this up. The actual source of the story is an Associated Press story on Forbes.com. The story is titled Turkey Signals It's Prepared to Enter Iraq:

Turkish officials signaled Tuesday they are prepared to send the army into northern Iraq if U.S. and Iraqi forces do not take steps to combat Turkish Kurdish guerrillas there - a move that could put Turkey on a collision course with the United States.

Turkey is facing increasing domestic pressure to act after 15 soldiers, police and guards were killed fighting the guerrillas in southeastern Turkey in the past week.

"The government is really in a bind," said Seyfi Tashan, director of the Foreign Policy Institute at Bilkent University in Ankara. "On the one hand, they don't want things to break down with the United States. On the other hand, the public is crying for action."

American officials, including Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, have repeatedly warned Turkey against entering northern Iraq, one of the few stable areas of the country.

A Turkish push into northern Iraq could also threaten relations with European Union countries, which have been pressing Turkey to improve rights for minority Kurds.

The Turkish Kurdish guerrillas are mostly based in the Qandil mountains, an area 50 miles from the Turkish border with Iran. From Iraq, the guerrillas infiltrate southeastern Turkey to stage attacks.

Turkey has long had some 2,000 troops in northern Iraq near the border monitoring the area. But if Turkey sent in military units they would have to travel through territory controlled by Iraqi Kurds.

If Turkey invades Northern Iraq, you can bet that the Kurds will ask for U.S. assistance in stopping this invasion. If the U.S. gives assistance to the Kurds in Northern Iraq, this certainly puts the U.S. on a military collision course with its NATO ally Turkey. If the U.S. refuses to assist the Kurds and allows Turkey to move into Northern Iraq, the Kurds will turn against the U.S. We'll have a Kurdish insurgency in Northern Iraq, a Sunni insurgency in the Golden Triangle, and a Shiite movement in Southern Iraq that is becoming more under the influence of Iran.

Then again, I wonder if this is just the Turkish government posturing as a means to satisfy the domestic pressure it is facing after its guards and soldiers have been killed in southeastern Turkey?

Either way, it is a complete clusterfrack.