Americans are in an anti-incumbent mood

I found another story off the Washington Post, titled House Incumbents at Risk, Poll Finds:

Most Americans describe themselves as being in an anti-incumbent mood heading into this fall's midterm congressional elections, and the percentage of people who approve of their own representative's performance is at the lowest level since 1994, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Eighty-one percent of Democrats say the war was not worth fighting, and 70 percent feel that way "strongly." A majority of Democrats, 54 percent, say a candidate endorsing Bush's Iraq policy would be less likely to get their vote, compared with 37 percent for whom it would not make much difference. Two in three Democrats say it is time to begin decreasing troop levels in Iraq, although only one in four supports immediate withdrawal.

Especially worrisome for members of Congress is that the proportion of Americans who approve of their own representative's performance has fallen sharply. Traditionally, voters may express disapproval of Congress as a whole but still vote for their own member, even from the majority party. But 55 percent now approve of their lawmaker, a seven-percentage-point drop over three months and the lowest such finding since 1994, the last time control of the House switched parties.

"That's dramatic," said Republican consultant Ed Rollins, who was White House political director under President Ronald Reagan.

Some Republican strategists said they fear it may be enough for Democrats to hammer home on the troubles of the country. "There's just a frustration that a lot of things are going wrong and nobody in Washington understands," Rollins said. "Even though the Democrats haven't really picked up the ball and offered an alternative, the numbers keep getting worse and worse."

The poll mirrored results of surveys at this point 12 years ago, just three months before Republicans swept out Democratic majorities from both houses of Congress. Fifty-three percent now call themselves anti-incumbent, while 29 percent describe themselves as inclined to reelect lawmakers -- almost precisely the same percentages as in June 1994.

The Republicans are pretty much convinced that the "War on Terror" is an issue that favors them over the Democrats. The problem with the Republican thinking is that they've been constantly linking the "War on Terror" with the war in Iraq. With reports coming out showing that Iraq has pretty much degenerated into an ethnic and religious civil war, it destroys the Republican's argument that they are the stronger political party to fight this "War on Terror." Consider that 80 percent of the Democrats feel the Iraq war is not worth fighting for, and that 2/3rds of the Democrats feel it is time to start pulling out. This is a major political shift, polarizing the party lines. You can bet that the Republicans are going to have trouble trying to steal away conservative Democrats, moderates or perhaps even independents if they are also feeling the same anger against President Bush and the Republican Party. And with the country in such a sour, angry mood, the Republican Party may find it hard to call out their own base of support--who may just stay home and not vote out of anger against Bush and the Republicans. Whereas, the Democrats may find it easier to turn out their own base because of the anger against Bush and the Republicans. So this is an interesting situation developing.