Nov. 4, 2006 - As President George W. Bush jets across Red State America this weekend, Republican candidates are falling further behind Democratic rivals, according to the new NEWSWEEK poll. While the GOP has lagged behind Democrats throughout the campaign season, the trend in the past month—when NEWSWEEK conducted four polls in five weeks—had suggested the Republicans were building momentum in the homestretch.
No more. The new poll finds support for Republicans (and for President Bush) receding. For example, 53 percent of Americans want the Democrats to win enough seats to take control of one or both houses of Congress in the midterm elections on Tuesday. Those results are close to early October levels, while less than a third of Americans (32 percent) want Republicans to retain control. If the elections were held today, 54 percent of likely voters say they would support the Democratic candidate in their district versus 38 percent who would vote for the Republican-a 16-point edge for the Democrats.
Despite round-the-clock coverage of John Kerry’s Iraq gaffe this week and non-stop rallies in which the President paints Democrats as weak-on-terror tax lovers, the political momentum has returned to the Democrats. Maybe that’s because nearly a third of registered voters (32 percent) now say Iraq is the most important issue in deciding their vote. The economy comes in second at 19 percent. And just 12 percent say terrorism, the Republican trump card in the last three elections, is their most important issue. In fact, as millions of Americans fill in their employers’ health-care selection forms for next year, terrorism is statistically tied with health care at 11 percent.
Meanwhile, the President’s approval has fallen back to 35 percent, after a slow but steady rise from 33 percent at the beginning of October to 37 percent in the NEWSWEEK poll last week.
The good news for Republicans is that their voters are coming home; 90 percent of likely Republican voters say they would vote for the GOP’s candidate if the elections were held today, not far behind the 95 percent of Democrats who back their party’s nominee. But independents say they would vote for the Democrat over the Republican in their district nearly 2 to 1 (26 percent versus 51 percent.)
And the President’s campaign stops this weekend suggest that the GOP has given up on reaching beyond its base and that the strategy now is focused on getting supporters to the polls come Election Day. Most of Bush’s stops are in the reddest of the red states: Kansas, Montana, Texas.
Also in a column by Newsweek reporters Richard Wolffe and Holly Bailey:
Four years ago, Bush and the GOP were not weighed down by worries over Iraq or ethical scandals. The White House has worked hard to squelch talk that Bush’s low poll numbers have made him politically radioactive on the campaign trail. But the numbers don’t lie.
In 2002, Bush hit 17 cities in 15 states in the final five days of the campaign. This year, a tentative schedule released by the White House has Bush working at half that pace: eight cities in seven states between now and Election Day.
In 2002, Bush devoted the final days of the campaign to helping his party’s most vulnerable candidates—a list that included four Senate candidates, nearly a dozen House races and a handful of Republican gubernatorial candidates. His itinerary included public rallies in states like Tennessee, Missouri, Minnesota, Illinois, Florida and Iowa.
Today most of those stops are scheduled in what has been traditionally regarded as Bush country, a list that includes Iowa, Kansas, Montana and Texas. This week alone, Bush held rallies in what should be friendly territory—including Tom DeLay’s old congressional district in Texas and two straight days of campaigning in Georgia.
Administration officials have said they are keeping Bush’s schedule flexible to aid any last-minute political maneuvering, so additions to his itinerary may yet come.
Both of these stories show a relationship between the rapidly dropping poll numbers of the Republican Party, and President Bush's campaign schedule. In a sense, President Bush has become politically radioactive for this campaign year. His job approval rating has remained within the 33 to 40 percent for the past year--depending upon which poll you examine. For example, a February 2006 CBS poll measured President Bush's approval rating at 34 percent. AnApril 20th, Fox News poll measured Bush's approval rating at 33 percent. A May 8th, 2006 USA Today/Gallup poll show's Bush's approval rating at 31 percent. An August 22, 2006 New York Times poll shows Bush's approval rating at 36 percent. A September 13, 2006 Pew Research poll shows President Bush's job approval rating at 37 percent. And finally, a November 2, 2006 New York Times/CBS News poll reveals President Bush's job approval rating at 34 percent--Bush's job approval ratings are exactly the same as the February 2006 CBS poll. The last thing President Bush is going to do is travel to the battleground states where the GOP candidates are most vulnerable--you're not going to see President Bush attending a campaign rally for Tennessee Senate race for Bob Corker--instead First Lady Barbara Bush campaigns at a Corker rally. President Bush campaigns in GOP-safe states, attacking the Democrats from afar. It is a liability for both the president and the Republican Party.
We'll soon see if it is a great enough liability to allow the Democrats to capture control of Congress.
No comments:
Post a Comment