World seafood supply to be depleted in 2048

Well, this is scary. From The Washington Post:

The world will run out of seafood by 2048 if steep declines in marine species continue at current rates, according to a study released today by an international group of ecologists and economists.

The paper, published in the journal Science, concludes that overfishing, pollution, and other environmental factors are wiping out important species across the globe, hampering the ocean's ability to produce seafood, filter nutrients and resist the spread of disease.

"We really see the end of the line now," said lead author Boris Worm, a marine biologist at Canada's Dalhousie University. "It's within our lifetime. Our children will see a world without seafood if we don't change things."

The 14 researchers from Canada, Panama, Sweden and the United States spent four years analyzing all the available data on fish populations and ocean ecosystems to reach their conclusion. They found that by 2003 -- the last year for which data on global commercial fish catches is available -- 29 percent of all fished species had collapsed, and that the rate of population collapses has accelerated in recent years.

As of 1980, just 13.5 percent of fished species had collapsed, even though fishing vessels were pursuing 1,736 fewer species back then. Today, the fishing industry harvests 7,784 species commercially.

"It's like hitting the gas pedal and holding it down at a constant level," Worm said in an telephone interview. "The rate accelerates over time."

If this is true, then the world has been overfishing, causing these species to collapse. What I find even more amazing about this story is the decrease in the number of species being fished. In 1980, the fishing industry was harvesting 9,520 species of fish. Now the industry is harvesting 7,784 species of fish. That is a major reduction in the species of fish being harvested.

Of course, the industry doesn't see the world supply of fish being depleted. Continuing with the WaPost story:

Some American fishery management officials, industry representatives and academics questioned the team's dire predictions, however, saying countries such as the U.S. and New Zealand have taken steps in recent years to halt the depletion of their commercial fisheries.

"The projection is way too pessimistic, at least for the United States," said Steven Murawski, chief scientist for the National Marine Fisheries Service. "We've got the message. We will continue to reverse this trend."

The National Fisheries Institute, a trade group representing seafood producers as well as suppliers, restaurants and grocery chains, said in a statement that most wild marine stocks remain sustainable. It added that its members could meet the rising global demand for seafood in part by relying on farmed fish: "To meet the gap between what wild capture can provide sustainably and the growing demand for seafood, aquaculture is filling that need."

I'd say the industry is going to have to start changing its business model from decreasing the amount of fishing in the ocean, towards increasing the production of farmed fishing. If the industry is overfishing, and the world seafood supply is being depleted, then we should start seeing a gradual increase in the price of seafood for consumers. The real danger here for the fishing industry is that if the seafood supply is being depleted, then the fishing industry is destroying both their main resource, and their primary source of income. If the study is valid, then the best thing the industry could do is to shift their resources away from fishing ocean fish towards farming fish.