A new National Intelligence Estimate depicts an Iraq involved in a multi-faceted struggle among religious groups and sects and says that without a sharp reversal in the violence and changes among the Shiite, Sunni and Kurd leadership, the situation could further deteriorate.
The estimate, which represents the views of all elements of the intelligence community, presents a much grimmer picture of the situation in Iraq than the Bush administration has acknowledged in the past.
Here is the PDF file of the NIE summary.
The NIE report is rather devastating for the Bush White House. Here is the first key point in the summary:
Iraqi society’s growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides’ ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism. Unless efforts to reverse these conditions show measurable progress during the term of this Estimate, the coming 12 to 18 months, we assess that the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006.
In other words, Iraq is pretty much screwed. The polarization between the Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds are continuing. The Iraqi government is powerless to stop the ethnic violence. And in the next 12 to 18 months, "the overall security situation will continue to deteriorate at rates comparable to the latter part of 2006." The violence will continue to increase, the war will continue grinding on, and young Americans will continue to come home in flag-draped coffins as the 2008 presidential primaries begin. The report claims that efforts must take place to reverse these conditions--specifically that the Iraqi Security Forces should become more loyal to the government, and Coalition forces "able to reduce levels of violence and establish more effective security for Iraq’s population, Iraqi leaders could have an opportunity to begin them process of political compromise necessary for longer term stability, political progress, and economic recovery." This certainly plays into the Bush troop surge plan. For without the troop surge, the Bush administration will claim that the Iraqi Security Forces will not be able to reduce the sectarian violence, resulting in the continued deterioration of the war. Even better, the Bush White House will link the coming Senate debate on the resolution opposing the troop surge as to increasing the deterioration of the war.
Of course, the NIE report goes downhill for the Bush administration. The devil is in the details. According to the NIE report:
Decades of subordination to Sunni political, social, and economic domination have made the Shia deeply insecure about their hold on power. This insecurity leads the Shia to mistrust US efforts to reconcile Iraqi sects and reinforces their unwillingness to engage with the Sunnis on a variety of issues, including adjusting the structure of Iraq’s federal system, reining in Shia militias, and easing de-Bathification.
Many Sunni Arabs remain unwilling to accept their minority status, believe the central government is illegitimate and incompetent, and are convinced that Shia dominance will increase Iranian influence over Iraq, in ways that erode the state’s Arab character and increase Sunni repression.
The absence of unifying leaders among the Arab Sunni or Shia with the capacity to speak for or exert control over their confessional groups limits prospects for reconciliation. The Kurds remain willing to participate in Iraqi state building but reluctant to surrender any of the gains in autonomy they have achieved.
The Kurds are moving systematically to increase their control of Kirkuk to guarantee annexation of all or most of the city and province into the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) after the constitutionally mandated referendum scheduled to occur no later than 31 December 2007. Arab groups in Kirkuk continue to resist violently what they see as Kurdish encroachment.
Nobody trusts anyone here. The Shiites don't trust either the Sunnis or the U.S., the Sunnis reject their minority status in Iraq, and the Kurds are taking over Kirkuk to control the oil reserves within the region. There is almost no way for the Bush White House or the Malaki government to get these three ethnic groups to reconcile. A Bush administration surge of 21,500 troops will not improve or reduce the security situation in Iraq--not with these three ethnic groups fighting each other for land, resources, ethnic cleansing, or against the Iraqi government and the U.S. occupation.
We've got some more fun with this NIE report:
The Intelligence Community judges that the term “civil war” does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq, which includes extensive Shia-on-Shia violence, al-Qa’ida and Sunni insurgent attacks on Coalition forces, and widespread criminally motivated violence. Nonetheless, the term “civil war” accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethnosectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements.
Iraq is not in a state of "civil war." Iraq is in a state of something more complex than a "civil war." What could be a more accurate description of the state of something more complex than a "civil war" that Iraq is currently in? Anarchy? Chaos? Screwed?
And finally, this little paragraph is the most damaging to the Bush administration:
Iraq’s neighbors influence, and are influenced by, events within Iraq, but the involvement of these outside actors is not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq’s internal sectarian dynamics.
In other words, Iran is not a major factor that is driving the ethnic violence taking place in Iraq. This completely contradicts the Bush administration's insistence that Iran is aiding the terrorists in Iraq. Remember President Bush's troop surge speech?
Succeeding in Iraq also requires defending its territorial integrity and stabilizing the region in the face of extremist challenge. This begins with addressing Iran and Syria. These two regimes are allowing terrorists and insurgents to use their territory to move in and out of Iraq. Iran is providing material support for attacks on American troops. We will disrupt the attacks on our forces. We will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria. And we will seek out and destroy the networks providing advanced weaponry and training to our enemies in Iraq.
We are also taking other steps to bolster the security of Iraq and protect American interests in the Middle East. I recently ordered the deployment of an additional carrier strike group to the region.
In that speech, President Bush accused Iran of supporting terrorists and insurgents in Iraq and practically declared war on Iran. President Bush authorized an attack on an Iranian consulate in Northern Iraq, arresting five Iranians in the process. President Bush has ordered a second aircraft carrier battle group into the Persian Gulf. He has authorized that U.S. troops can kill suspected Iranian operatives in Iraq. And there have been several reports of the Bush administration planning for war with Iran. And while all this Bush White House war planning against Iran is taking place, the NIE report contradicts everything the Bush administration has accused of Iran of aiding the Iraqi insurgents. There is no diplomatic, foreign, or a security reason for the U.S. to go to war with Iran. There are, however, plenty of political reasons for the Bush administration to go to war with Iran--with the main reason being to shift American attention away from the disaster of Iraq to Iran, to continue American imperialism in the Middle East, or perhaps even to salvage President Bush's legacy as the father of the Global War on Terror. Take your pick. The NIE report continues to show Iraq as a complete disaster--a basket case. And this Bush administration has no clue as to how to resolve this war.
We're still walking over the cliff.
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