McCain is an abortion-rights foe but his failure to support a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage and backing of embryonic stem-cell research are among the political heresies that some conservative evangelicals cannot forgive him for.
With the influential James Dobson, the founder of the conservative advocacy group Focus on the Family, already saying he will not vote for McCain, analysts say evangelical turnout -- or lack thereof -- could be key on November 4.
"It's possible that the lack of enthusiasm for McCain could lead to a lower turnout among evangelicals in the fall," said Scott Keeter of the Pew Research Center.
That scenario could tilt the election in favor of the Democrats as Republicans have come to rely heavily on an evangelical community energized to get out and vote by its opposition to abortion rights and gay rights.
Their vote was widely seen as the difference for President George W. Bush in his two successful White House runs.
"Anything short of a fully engaged and mobilized Republican base will spell disaster for the Republican nominee," said Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, a conservative lobby group with strong evangelical ties.
"Evangelicals do more than vote ... they volunteer, they work in campaigns. They'll do volunteer phone work and pass out flyers," he said.
Evangelicals comprise about a fifth of the U.S. population and according to Pew surveys account for at least a third of the Republican electorate, giving them serious clout in politics.
The key to a McCain victory, in the general election, is a combination of rallying the GOP base, and to skim enough moderates and independents to his campaign. McCain still has enough of that "maverick" status in the media to possibly attract the moderate and independent vote. The real problem for McCain is his "right" flank. The evangelicals still do not like McCain. Focus on the Family's James Dobson has said that he would not support a McCain nomination. If the evangelicals stay home on Election Day, then McCain has no chance of winning the White House.
McCain knows this, and it is the reason why he is reaching out to bring the evangelicals into his campaign. Consider this New York Times story on McCain's speech at the CPAC conference:
Mr. McCain stepped forward two hours later [After Mitt Romney's speech] before the same gathering to try to make peace with a group deeply skeptical of him, if not outright hostile. In a moment that will long be remembered by Republicans, he was greeted with jeers as well as cheers.
[....]
When Mr. McCain took the stage, he reached out to conservatives in conciliatory remarks.
“Many of you have disagreed strongly with some positions I have taken in recent years,” Mr. McCain told the group in an enormous, overflowing hotel ballroom, where people were held back from entering by security guards who said the raucous crowd exceeded fire code violations. “I understand that. I might not agree with it, but I respect it for the principled position it is.”
Nonetheless, Mr. McCain said, “it is my sincere hope that even if you believe I have occasionally erred in my reasoning as a fellow conservative, you will still allow that I have, in many ways important to all of us, maintained the record of a conservative.”
I think because of this split in the Republican Party base, we could see McCain select a running mate with strong support from the evangelical base. McCain needs to find a way to regain the evangelical base of the GOP, and one possible way is to pick a vice president with strong evangelical credentials. The obvious choice here would certainly be Mike Huckabee. Huckabee ran strong in the Deep South states during Super Tuesday. And much of that strength came from the evangelical voters. Would McCain choose Huckabee as his running mate? I can't say. But I'm guessing that as we move towards the GOP conventions, we're going to hear more speculation on McCain's choice for VP.
No comments:
Post a Comment