Thursday, March 27, 2008

Iraq is coming apart again

This is off The Guardian:

The Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, vowed to keep up the fight against Shia militias in Basra today despite deadly clashes killing 200 people across the oil-rich south and Baghdad, according to reports.

His defiance came as anti-government protests by tens of thousands of followers of radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr continued on a fourth day of Iraqi military operations in Basra.

George Bush praised Maliki for the attacks. "Prime minister Maliki's bold decision, and it was a bold decision, to go after the illegal groups in Basra shows his leadership and his commitment to enforce the law in an even-handed manner," he said.

"It also shows the progress the Iraqi security forces have made during the surge."

Sadrist lawmakers in Baghdad issued a strong statement calling for an end to Maliki's assault. "We call on our brothers in the Iraqi army and the brave national police not to be tools of death in the hands of the new dictatorship," Falah Shanshal said at a news conference.

Heavy gunfire and explosions resounded across Basra today, while an interior ministry source said 51 people had been killed and more than 200 wounded in the city alone.

The city's police chief escaped an assassination attempt late today but three of his bodyguards were killed in the roadside bombing.

No other casualties were reported today but the military said a US soldier, two American civilians and an Iraqi soldier were wounded yesterday.

One of southern Iraq's two main oil export pipelines was also severely damaged in a bomb attack, officials said today.

Do you notice the contradiction within the story? President Bush is praising Maliki's "bold decision" to attack Shia militias this week, claiming "the progress the Iraqi security forces have made during the surge." And yet, I seriously wonder whether the Maliki government is actually winning this latest war, considering the anti-government protests by "tens of thousands of followers of radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr" that are continuing on the fourth day of the Iraqi government's push into Basra. The fighting is still taking place between the Iraqi military and police forces verses the shia militia. Even more ominous, there are renewed attacks against the U.S. fortified Green Zone in Baghdad by rockets and mortars. The six-month cease fire agreement between the Iraqi government and Sadr's Mahdi Army has fallen apart. Expect to see an even greater level of violence take place within Iraq over the course of this year--with an increasing number of U.S. casualties.

This Reuters News story has some more interesting details regarding the fighting in Iraq:

BASRA, Iraq (Reuters) - Iraq's U.S.-backed Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki vowed on Thursday that security forces would battle Shi'ite militia in Basra "to the end", despite huge demonstrations to demand his resignation.

Mehdi Army fighters loyal to cleric Moqtada al-Sadr remained in control of much of Basra, Iraq's second biggest city and main oil hub, defying a three-day government offensive that has led to violence spreading across the south and Baghdad.

Authorities imposed a three-day curfew in the capital to contain the clashes.

Saboteurs blew up one of Iraq's two main oil export pipelines from Basra, cutting at least a third of the exports from the southern oilfields, a Southern Oil Company official said. U.S. oil prices briefly rose more than $1 a barrel.

Maliki, who has traveled to Basra to oversee the crackdown, told tribal leaders it was sending "a message to all gangs that the state is in charge of the country".

[....]

Tens of thousands of Sadr supporters marched in Baghdad in a massive show of force for the cleric, demanding Maliki's removal. In the vast Sadr City slum, named after the cleric's slain father, crowds of angry men chanted slogans.

"We demand the downfall of the Maliki government. It does not represent the people. It represents Bush and Cheney," marcher Hussein Abu Ali said.

The slum of 2 million people is in a virtual state of siege.

"We are trapped in our homes with no water or electricity since yesterday. We can't bathe our children or wash our clothes," said a resident who gave his name as Mohammed.

Demonstrations were also held in the Kadhimiya and Shula districts, among the largest anti-government protests Maliki's government has faced. An Interior Ministry source said hundreds of thousands took part.

A Reuters correspondent in Basra said Iraqi forces had cordoned off seven districts but were being repelled by Mehdi Army fighters inside them. Helicopters swooped overhead.

Reuters television pictures showed masked Mehdi fighters firing mortars, waving rocket launchers in the air and dancing with children in the streets. Some showed off captured government vehicles sprayed with Mehdi Army slogans.

A couple of interesting points. First, the Mehdi Army still controls Basra, even after four days of intense fighting by the Iraqi government forces. This makes me wonder if the Iraqi government forces are losing the Battle for Basra--I mean, Maliki even takes a special trip to Basra to oversee the fighting there. According to Reuters, Iraqi forces in Basra had "cordoned off seven districts but were being repelled by Mehdi Army fighters inside them." Mehdi fighters had even captured some government vehicles during the fighting, and were celebrating by "waving rocket launchers in the air and dancing with children in the streets." Obviously the Iraqi military has not yet defeated the Mehdi Army in Basra.

The second point is the protest demonstrations against the Maliki government--they are sprouting up everywhere in Baghdad, the Kadhimiya and Shula districts. This is not just one simple protest movement here, but large multiple protest movements against the Maliki government. Essentially, the Maliki government has lost whatever support they had with the Shiite people (They probably never had any such support). But now this crackdown is causing the Shiite people to rise up in both protest, and revolt against the Maliki government. I seriously wonder just how many more Shiites will be joining the Shia militias against the Iraqi government forces?

And the third big point on both of these stories is the continued fantasy of this Bush administration's insistence of the success of the U.S. surge in Iraq, verses the events that are being reported in these two news stories. President Bush wants to keep this Iraq war going until after he leaves office, and dumps this mess onto his successor. Bush will achieve this selfish and callous goal. But this U.S. war in Iraq will not be "lost" by any successor administration of Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama--this Iraq war has been started and lost by George W. Bush. These news stories show that this U.S. war in Iraq has been lost. It is just a question of when are we going to accept this disaster, and start pulling out of this war.

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