NBC News projected Tuesday night that Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton had won Pennsylvania’s presidential primary, a victory that analysts said she had to have if she were to remain a credible candidate for the Democratic nomination.
Clinton, independent analysts and the campaign of Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois had predicted ahead of time that Clinton would win the state, where she enjoyed large leads in opinion polls until recently. But after closing the deficit in the last few weeks, Obama’s advisers said he would have the momentum unless Clinton won by a sizable margin.
Former Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe, a senior adviser to Clinton, maintained that “this was a big win in Pennsylvania.”
I love how Terry McAuliffe thinks that this is a big Hillary Clinton win here. It is not, considering that even Barack Obama's campaign was predicting that Clinton would win the state. The big question is by how much will Clinton win the state? If it is within 5-10 percentage points, then both campaigns are still at the status quo from when they started the Pennsylvania campaign--with Obama ahead of Clinton by around 140 pledged delegates. There is no way that Hillary Clinton can get ahead of Barack Obama in the pledged delegate count before the convention. And the super delegates know that Obama is ahead in the delegate count over Clinton. They are not going to do anything until the final state caucus and primary is finished, and we will know what the final delegate tally will be. Obama will be ahead in that count.
Does that still mean Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race? Not exactly. We still have a Democratic Party that is split between the two candidates, and that I expect, would be happy with either candidate, or even be thrilled with both candidates on the same ticket. So even though Barack Obama is getting closer to wrapping up the Democratic nomination, he still needs Hillary Clinton in order to rally her supporters to his camp. There will need to be some type of reconciliation between the two candidates, before the convention, because they both need each other. They need a unified Democratic Party, where Obama supporters will need work with Clinton supporters in order to defeat the potential third Bush term under John McCain. Both sides need each other to get a Democrat in the White House. And if the two candidates can't reconcile their differences and come before their supporters, united in the common goal of winning the White House...well, then this country is truly in a state of disaster.
But the writing may be on the wall for the Clinton campaign. The only way for Hillary Clinton to win the nomination now is to convince the super delegates to her side. But the super delegates know that if they throw their support to Clinton when Obama has the lead in the pledged delegate count, the super delegates are courting a political disaster of tearing the Democratic Party apart by voting against the wishes of the states' caucus and primary voters. This is how you destroy the Democratic Party and hand the White House to McCain on a silver platter. Of course, this is also the only way for Hillary Clinton to win the nomination at this point. The real question is whether the super delegates are willing to risk a political disaster, and the potential loss of the White House for the next four to eight years, by quickly jumping over to the Clinton side. At this point, they are staying quiet until all the state primaries and caucuses are finished. After which when they are positively certain that Obama is ahead in the delegate count, they may end up throwing their support for Obama. And while the Clinton campaign may not be ready to drop out of the race, they may have to suspend their race within the next couple of months, depending on the money situation. It is going to come down to the last seven states, and how much money both candidates have to spend in those states.
One final quick comment. As for Hillary Clinton talking about how Barack Obama could not win big states and how she can--that is all pretty much desperate talk from the Clinton campaign in a move to sway the super delegates to her side. Yes, Clinton has been winning the big states, but they have been close wins of around 10 percent or less. In California, Clinton won over Obama, 52-42 percent--the difference of 10 percentage points. In Ohio, Clinton won over Obama 54-44 percent, and Texas was even closer at 51-47 percent. Clinton blew Obama out in her home state of New York, 57-40 percent. And the Pennsylvania returns are showing Clinton's projected win over Obama at 54-46 percent win--a seven percentage point difference. Aside from Clinton's win in New York, these are not blow-out wins for the Clinton campaign. These are close, big state wins that really show a divided Democratic Party supporting both candidates. And I still suspect that whoever the Democratic nominee is, these Democratic voters may just rally around the Democratic nominee for the purpose of keeping the White House out of a third Bush term under John McCain. The Democratic base is energized for this 2008 race--look at the heavy turnout in Democrats for voting in the Pennsylvania primary, and the previous state primaries and caucuses that have taken place. The key point here is to unify both the Clinton and Obama campaigns for the common goal of electing either Hillary, Barack, or even both into the White House for 2008.
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