A backlash?

This New York Times column by Charles M. Blow is especially fascinating. Charles Blow asked this very simple question:

The question is this: Have white Democrats soured on Obama? Apparently not. Although his unfavorable rating from the group is up five percentage points since last summer in polls conducted by The New York Times and CBS News, his favorable rating is up just as much.

On the other hand, black Democrats’ opinion of Hillary Clinton has deteriorated substantially (her favorable rating among them is down 36 percentage points over the same period).

Graph showing favorable and unfavorable ratings for both white and black Democratic voters to Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. From The New York Times.

So what is happening here? Since January, Senator Hillary Clinton has pummeled Senator Barack Obama with just about every negative ad, scandal, rumor, insult, and both the kitchen and bathroom sinks. The race card was even thrown at Obama--especially with all the flack coming from the Jeremiah Wright scandal. Wright has been a huge story for the mainstream media, endlessly speculating on how Wright's controversial statements will bring fear to white Americans of a potentially racist Obama presidency. But when you look at the graph here for white Democratic voters favorable and unfavorable ratings for Barack Obama, both have increased by around 5 percentage points since January 2007. There is not much change here.

But there is a huge change in Hillary Clinton's numbers for black Democratic voters. Since January 2007, Clinton's favorable ratings among black Democratic voters have dropped 36 points, while her unfavorable ratings among black Democratic voters have increased by 17 points. If there is any backlash, it is Black America that is turning against Hillary Clinton. I suspect that a good part of this backlash is because of the Clinton negative campaigning against Obama. Barack Obama has become an inspiration to black Americans as being the first credible African American to potentially win the White House. And black Americans are becoming angry at how the Clinton campaign has relentlessly attacked Obama--consider former president Bill Clinton's semi-racist attack just after the South Carolina primary, comparing Obama's campaign with Jesse Jackson's '84 and '88 campaigns, or Clinton adviser, former vice presidential candidate, Geraldine Ferraro's statement that Obama is only a contender because he is black. These are not the kind of statements you want to present if you're trying to rally Democratic votes to your side--especially since the African American vote is a strong constituency within the Democratic Party. There is a fascinating, internal dynamic taking place here with how race is shaping these two Democratic candidates. The candidate that is trying to use race as a means of an attack is finding her own support deteriorating.