Americans are gloomier about the direction of the country than they have been at any point in 15 years, and Democrats hold their biggest advantage since early 1993 as the party better able to deal with the nation's main problems, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Despite more than eight in 10 now saying the country is headed in the wrong direction, coupled with growing disaffection with the Republican Party, Sen. John McCain, the GOP's presumptive presidential nominee, remains competitive in a hypothetical general-election matchup with Sen. Barack Obama, the favorite for the Democratic nomination, and he runs almost even with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Those findings indicate that McCain continues to elude some of the anger aimed at his party and at President Bush, whose approval ratings dipped to an all-time low in Post-ABC polling. Maintaining a separate identity will be a key to McCain's chances of winning the White House in November. Overall, Democrats hold a 21-percentage-point advantage over Republicans as the party better equipped to handle the nation's problems.
There are a lot of interesting statistics within this story, of which you can find the results here. But the important point to remember is that as Americans' mood continues to sour with the direction this country's economy is heading, that anger is going to be reflected against President Bush, the Republican Party, and GOP presidential nominee John McCain. So far McCain has avoided the brunt of Americans' anger because the election focus is on the Democratic race between Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. According to the ABC/WaPost poll, six out of 10 Democrats say that Obama has the better shot at winning the general election, however two-thirds of the Democrats also say that Clinton should stay in the race. Democrats really don't want the Clinton-Obama race to be decided yet, even though they know that Obama will be the Democratic nominee. What is especially interesting here is that the Democrats seem unconcerned that the protracted nomination battle is actually hurting the party's chanced in November, with 56 percent saying the contest had no impact on the party's prospects, and 15 percent saying the contest has been helpful. Only 27 percent say that protracted battle will cause long-term damage to the party. Democrats like that the media is focused on this horse race, giving all the spotlight to both Clinton and especially Obama. The ABC/WaPost poll shows Obama with a 12-point advantage over Clinton in a national race. In a hypothetical general-election race, Obama leads McCain by a slim 51-to-44 percent margin, while they split with 49 percent for Clinton and 46 percent for McCain. But this particular stat really shows McCain's problem:
McCain romps against Obama among the 16 percent who think the country is headed in the right direction, but among the near-record 82 percent who hold a pessimistic view, Obama runs more than 20 points ahead of McCain. Similarly, about seven in 10 of those who disapprove of Bush said they would back Obama over McCain, while McCain picks up most of those who are still behind the president. The trouble for McCain is that Bush's approval has slipped to 31 percent, and has been lower than 50 percent for 38 consecutive months.
The economy remains the biggest issue on Americans' minds, although its importance dipped for the first time since last fall. In the new survey, 36 percent cited the economy and jobs as their top voting issue; 21 percent named the Iraq war. All other issues remained in single digits, including health care and the price of oil and gasoline.
Talk about bad news for the McCain campaign. Americans who hold the pessimistic views of the country going on the wrong track are pummeling McCain by giving their support to Obama, who runs 20 points ahead of McCain. Even more, the seven in 10 who disapprove of President Bush said that they would back Obama over McCain--the Bush albatross is sinking McCain, and we haven't even gotten to the general election yet. The McCain campaign has tied itself to the Bush administration on both the U.S. war in Iraq and the economy (Supporting Bush tax cuts). So far McCain is sinking badly.
Barack Obama also holds double-digit leads over McCain on domestic issues of health care, gas prices and the economy, while McCain has a 21-percent lead on handling the U.S. battle against terrorism. Both Obama and McCain run almost even in managing the U.S. war in Iraq and on immigration. The Great War on Terrorism was McCain's signature issue for jumping into the 2008 race, the issue which would propel McCain into the White House. McCain would lead the U.S. through the war in Iraq and our battle against the evil terrorists! The big problem for McCain is that the war in Iraq took second stage to the slowing U.S. economy, giving Obama huge double-digit leads on both the economy and domestic issues. And with a majority of Americans wanting to pull out of the Iraq war, Obama has pulled to almost even with McCain on the Iraq war. So even McCain's single issue campaign of leading the U.S. through the war in Iraq has started to crumble, as Americans are demanding an end to the war.
Certainly not very promising for John McCain.
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