Sen. Barack Obama crossed another threshold last night in his march toward the Democratic presidential nomination, splitting a pair of primaries with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and claiming a majority of the pledged delegates at stake in the long nomination battle.
Obama scored an easy victory in Oregon after being trounced by Clinton in Kentucky. The results left him fewer than 100 delegates short of the 2,026 currently required to win the party's nomination after one of the closest contests that Democrats have staged in a generation.
The senator from Illinois stopped short of claiming the nomination, a milestone he may not be able to reach until the end of the primaries on June 3. But he staged a victory rally in Iowa, the site of his first big win of the year, to highlight his near-lock on the nomination and to continue to shift his focus to a general-election campaign against Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee.
Recalling the lengthy road he has traveled, Obama told a boisterous crowd gathered near the Iowa State Capitol: "Tonight, Iowa, in the fullness of spring, with the help of those who stood up from Portland to Louisville, we have returned to Iowa with a majority of delegates elected by the American people, and you have put us within reach of the Democratic nomination for president of the United States."
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A total of 103 pledged delegates were at stake in yesterday's primaries. Under current rules, there are a total of 3,253 pledged delegates, which means Obama needs 1,627 to claim a majority. Current rules, which do not include delegates from Michigan or Florida, require the nominee to win at least 2,026 delegates -- pledged and superdelegates.
This primary is now over. Barack Obama is now the Democratic nominee. The two states of Montana and South Dakota will hold their primaries on June 3rd, while the territory of Puerto Rico will hold its primary on June 1st. Even if Hillary Clinton were to win big in both states and Puerto Rico (Let's say 100 percent of the vote and all the delegates), she will still not be able to overtake Obama in the pledged delegate count. Hence, Barack Obama will have the pledged delegate lead coming into the Democratic convention.
Should Hillary Clinton drop out now? Not yet. Hillary Clinton knows that she has an extremely long shot at taking the nomination--basically Barack Obama will have to do something really stupid that would force him to withdrawal out of the race. And what we can see of the Obama campaign, I doubt that will even happen. But there are important reasons for Clinton to stay in the race. The most obvious reason is that with Clinton in the race, all the media attention has been focused on the Democratic race, leaving Republican nominee John McCain out in the cold. That will slightly change know, as Obama shifts his campaign from a primary election to a general election. The second reason Clinton should stay in the race is that if she wins the last remaining states, or takes a close second-place finish to Obama, she still wins votes and delegates that she can use to position herself for a vice presidential spot on Obama's ticket, or to demand her policy positions to be incorporated in Obama's party platform. Hillary Clinton is staying in this race now as a political bargaining strategy with the Obama campaign and the Democratic Party. And you can bet that there will be some horse trading taking place between the Clinton and Obama campaigns just before the Democratic National Convention starts. It is going to take place because Clinton has already shifted her own campaign now. According to the WaPost:
As Clinton carries on her campaign, she has toned down direct attacks on Obama and has made it clear to her advisers that she does not want to do or say anything at this point that could hurt him in a general election. She also hopes to keep alive her case that she would be a stronger candidate in the fall, but she has indicated that she will have a better chance to rally her supporters to Obama's side, if he is the nominee, if she is allowed to finish out the nomination battle on her own terms.
Obama has been similarly careful, telling his staff not to do or say anything that appears to pressure Clinton to leave the race prematurely. Nonetheless, the Obama campaign's decision to stage its celebration in Iowa last night and claim a majority of pledged delegates rankled Clinton and her advisers.
The Clinton "kitchen sink" negative attacks against Obama are finished. Clinton will probably finish out her campaign with the last states in a positive way, talking about why she will be the stronger candidate for the nomination. She has already told her advisers that she doesn't want to do or say anything that will now hurt Obama in the general election. Clinton knows that she has probably lost the nomination, however she will not concede until after all the primary elections in Montana, South Dakota, and Puerto Rico. Only then will she concede the race to Obama. At the same time, Obama is making nice to Clinton, telling his staff not to do or say anything that will pressure Clinton to leave the race prematurely. Obama is allowing Clinton to leave the race in her own time and choosing. Okay, so the Obama celebration in Iowa may have rankled the Clinton campaign, but there is not much the Clinton campaign can do, knowing that Obama has taken the lead in delegates. And while Obama may have celebrated with his victory rally in Iowa, even he knows that he has not completely cinched the Democratic nomination, with the super-delegates watching, uncommitted, until all the primaries are finished. Obama's focus is no longer on Hillary Clinton, but rather John McCain with the general election. Both Democratic candidates will play nicely with each other in the final two weeks of this primary season.
Let the general election season begin.
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