The big drama now facing the Democratic Party in the presidential contest is how, when and even whether Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton will depart the race.
The contest is coming to a close as Puerto Rico votes on Sunday and Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday, finishing a process that began five months ago in Iowa. Even if those results do not put Senator Barack Obama over the top, aides to both Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton said they expected enough superdelegates to rally behind Mr. Obama in the 48 hours after the final primaries to allow him to proclaim himself the nominee.
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Mrs. Clinton has kept her counsel about what she might do to draw her campaign to a close. But when the rules committee of the Democratic Party divided up delegates from Michigan and Florida on Saturday night, Harold Ickes, a committee member and Clinton adviser, said she was reserving the right to contest the decision into the summer.
Still, despite the fireworks, Mrs. Clinton’s associates said she seemed to have come to terms over the last week with the near certainty that she would not win the nomination, even as she continued to assert, with what one associate described as subdued resignation, that the Democrats are making a mistake in sending Mr. Obama up against Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee.
Perhaps there is light at the end of the tunnel. The Puerto Rico primary is being held today, and the Montana and South Dakota primaries will be held on Tuesday. Barack Obama will need around 63 delegates in order to cinch the nomination. Hillary Clinton needs around 238 delegates. Hillary Clinton is staring at the end of this long, hard-fought, close race, with Barack Obama becoming the nominee.
So the question for Hillary Clinton will be how will she exit this race? According to the NY Times:
Her associates said the most likely outcome was that she would end her bid with a speech, probably back home in New York, in which she would endorse Mr. Obama. Mrs. Clinton herself suggested on Friday that the contest would end sometime next week.
Assuming Mr. Obama reaches the number of delegates and superdelegates he needs to secure the nomination in the coming week, Mrs. Clinton will be faced with three options, associates said: to suspend her campaign and endorse Mr. Obama; to suspend her campaign without making an endorsement; or to press the fight through the convention. Several of Mrs. Clinton’s associates said it was unlikely she would fight through the convention, given the potential damage it would do to her standing in the party, which is increasingly eager to unify and turn to the battle against Mr. McCain.
Mrs. Clinton would almost surely face the defection of some of her highest-profile supporters, as well as some members of her staff. She would no doubt also face anger from Democratic leaders.
“In order for us to be successful in November, the runner-up is going to have to go all out in support of the nominee,” said Representative Chris Van Hollen of Maryland, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. “The runner-up is going to have to be there from Day One. The support is going to have to be more than just lip service.”
The best outcome would be for Clinton to continue campaigning through Tuesday, and then go back to New York to end her campaign at her home state. As Clinton ends her campaign, she should immediately endorse Obama in an attempt to unify the Democratic Party and bring her supporters into the Obama camp for an even tougher showdown with Republican candidate Senator John McCain. To suspend her campaign without an Obama endorsement or to continue the nomination fight into the convention would certainly destroy her political standing within the Democratic Party, and create even more problems for the Democrats in unifying their party to attack McCain for the White House. Is Hillary Clinton willing to destroy the Democratic Party, and their best chance for taking the White House, out of sheer ambition? I hope not.
Already, both campaigns have shifted their strategies for this final week. According to the NY Times:
Mr. Obama has already turned his campaign away from Mrs. Clinton to face Mr. McCain. Mrs. Clinton is barely mentioned by Mr. Obama anymore, and his schedule is now focused as much on general election battlegrounds as it is on the remaining primaries. Mr. Obama is planning to mark the final election night of this primary season in St. Paul.
“That’s where the Republican convention is going to be,” said David Axelrod, the campaign’s chief strategist. “It seems like a good place to start the discussion about which direction we’re going to go as a country.”
Similarly, Mrs. Clinton and her aides have all but stopped their attacks on Mr. Obama, and the once vigorous Clinton war room has gone into a slumber.
Indeed, the talk in Mrs. Clinton’s headquarters has turned from the primary to more mundane matters: the next job, whom Mr. Obama might hire from the Clinton campaign, and even where to go on vacation.
All of this is good news for the Democrats. Obama can concentrate on the general election campaign without having to face attacks from Clinton. Clinton can continue to campaign on her own signature issues for the next couple of days until she decides to exit the race. Both candidates have stopped their attacks against each other as they turn towards the general election campaign. Clinton's chief strategist Howard Wolfson has hinted that Clinton will not carry the campaign fight into the convention. If this is true, then it tells us that Clinton knows the nomination fight is just about over, and that Barack Obama will be the nominee. Clinton will drop out in her own time and choosing over this next week.
Another piece of important information to consider is that both the Clinton and Obama camps are starting to talk to each other:
While there are sore feelings on both sides, Mr. Obama has directed his aides to begin reaching out to their counterparts in the Clinton camp.
Mr. Obama’s advisers said he would make no formal statement of victory, with the assumption that the moment would be elaborately marked by the media.
With this primary race just about ending, there is certainly hurt, anger, and sore feelings in both camps. Both campaigns will need to join together for the general election push against McCain. It is a good sign that Obama will not make any formal statement of victory, which would certainly anger the Clinton supporters. The Clinton supporters will also need to realize that this race isn't over with this nomination fight, and that their support will be needed if the Democrats are to take the White House in November. Here is where the negotiations between the two campaigns will be especially important in considering what role Hillary Clinton will play in the Obama campaign--be it a vice presidential ticket, a potential Senate Majority leader, or whatever. We could be looking at the start of the reconciliation between both campaigns with the new focus of taking down John McCain in November.
Update: Hillary Clinton conceded the Democratic nomination for president to Barack Obama on Saturday, June 7, 2008. You can watch Clinton's concession speech here on YouTube:
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