Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Clinton wins Ohio, Texas, and Rhode Island, Obama wins Vermont

Here are the results from yesterdays primaries. From MSNBC News:

WASHINGTON - Hillary Rodham Clinton scored three victories in a night of revival that denied Barack Obama a ripe opportunity to drive her from the Democratic presidential race. Clarity came only to the Republican side, where John McCain made the nomination his own.

Meanwhile, Clinton, fresh off big primary victories, hinted Wednesday at the possibility of sharing the Democratic presidential ticket with Obama — with her at the top. Obama played down his losses, stressing that he still holds the lead in number of delegates.

In a night that failed to clarify the Democratic race, McCain clinched the Republican nomination. Clinton won primaries in Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island, halting Obama's winning streak. Obama won in Vermont.

Both Democrats insisted on Wednesday they had the best credentials to go head to head — or as Clinton put it, "toe to toe" — against McCain.

For the past three weeks, there has been a lot of talk in the mainstream news media for Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race and cede the nomination to Barack Obama. Clinton has refused to do so. And what is more interesting is that the American people are still saying that they like both candidates here. After the 11-straight wins that Obama gained, he still has not yet shown that he can bury Clinton away in this nomination. And yet, for the big wins that Clinton gained in Texas and Ohio, she still doesn't have the time, or the delegate math, to catch up to Obama's pledged delegate lead before the convention. So what we have here is half of the Democrats voting for Obama, and half of the Democrats voting for Clinton, with Obama taking a slight lead of around 100 delegates into the convention. Both candidates will press hard in selling themselves to the super-delegates for the nomination. And the super-delegates will be faced with an extremely difficult situation--who to choose between two closely divided, and equally popular, Democratic candidates?

This is where I think the brokered convention is going to be played out. The super-delegates are going to be faced with two important issues--the first is certainly who will be chosen for the Democratic nomination. But a more serious issue is the question of which candidate candidate can beat John McCain, who is now the heir apparent for the continuation of the Bush regime. Both candidates have their own set of strengths and weaknesses. For Hillary Clinton, her strength is certainly her experience in the Washington political scene--having served eight years as First Lady, and almost eight years in the U.S. Senate, whereas Obama has been in the U.S. Senate for only four years. John McCain's Senate career dwarfs them both at 26 years. She is one of the smoothest debaters I have seen, and she has the Democrat's fondness for former president Bill Clinton's two terms in office. Hillary Clinton's greatest weakness is the fact that she is a Clinton--the Republicans are going to dredge up every piece of dirt and mud that they can on the Clinton's, in order to anger their own base into voting for McCain. Hillary has very high negative numbers, with a number of people claiming that they will never vote for Hillary. In addition, there is some concern for having almost 28 years of a combined Bush/Clinton/Bush/Clinton presidencies (If Hillary gets elected for two terms). Hillary Clinton is both a strong candidate, that also comes with serious issues.

There are strengths and weaknesses with Barack Obama as well. Barack Obama is an incredible candidate--young, great looking, intelligent, charismatic, incredible stump speaker, and he has an incredibly beautiful, intelligent wife. Barack Obama is almost like an African-American equivalent of a John F. Kennedy--if Obama gets elected to the White House, will we see a resurgence of a new Camelot? And yet, Obama also has his own set of weaknesses. Like it or not, Obama is still inexperience--he has only been in the U.S. Senate for four years. Obama has not been the best debater when compared to Clinton. Obama stammers as he is saying one sentence, while his brain is thinking about the third or fourth sentence. Hillary Clinton has a very smooth presentation style in her debates with Obama. And I think that the single greatest strength and weakness Obama brings is his African-American heritage. It would be an incredible achievement to have either an African-American, or a woman, to be elected to the Oval Office. But if Barack Obama gets the nomination, the Republicans will pull out all stops in slinging the most racist dirt they can against Obama, that it would make the GOP attacks against Harold Ford in the 2006 Tennessee Senate race seem like a tea party. We have already seen a preview of these attacks against Obama, suggesting that Obama is a Muslim, or he will secretly side with the terrorist, or that he is not a true American. The Obama campaign has been sharp at counter-attacking some the negative campaigning by the Clinton camp. But that will be nothing compared to the crap that the GOP will fling against Obama in the general election.

I like both candidates. I can be happy both voting, and supporting, either Hillary Clinton, or Barack Obama, for the White House. And looking at how close some of these state primaries and caucuses have been, I believe the Democrats are happy with either choice--the Democratic Party is split down the middle with half supporting either candidate. This brings up the question of a combined Clinton/Obama or Obama/Clinton ticket. Just look at the audience response to the possibility of a dream ticket with both candidates at the CNN debate before Super Tuesday:



The Democrats love these two candidates, and are especially supportive of both of them. It is the reason why neither candidate can put the other away. And it is the reason why there is an enthusiastic response to a combined ticket. In one sense, both Clinton and Obama complement each other in bringing the best of the Democratic voters' support for winning the White House. Of the two, I would say that a Clinton president/Obama vice-president would make the best sense. It would provide Obama 4-8 years of vice presidential experience under a Hillary Clinton administration. When Hillary Clinton steps down, Obama could then become a powerful Democratic candidate that may continue the Democratic Party's hold on the Oval Office for another 4-8 years. Either way, both are great candidates for the office.

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