Prodi Wins; Berlusconi Not Conceding Yet

L'Unione center-left coalition leader Romano Prodi, center, raises an Italian and EU flag with ally Arturo Parisi, right, as they celebrate on stage outside the coalition's headquarters in Rome, early Tuesday, April 11, 2006. Prodi claimed victory in Italy's election early Tuesday, but Premier Silvio Berlusconi's conservative forces contested the claim. 'We have won, and now we have to start working to implement our program and unify the country,' said a jubilant Prodi speaking to his supporters. Berlusconi's spokeman, Paolo Bonaiuti, contested the claim, saying, 'The center-right contests that the center-left has won,' according to reports. Near final results showed each coalition ahead in one of the two houses of parliament. (AP Photo/Andrew Medichini)

This is interesting. From Yahoo News:

ROME - Challenger Romano Prodi's center-left coalition won the Italian parliamentary election, official results showed Tuesday, but Conservative Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi refused to concede defeat.

The Interior Ministry assigned Prodi's coalition four Senate seats chosen by Italians voting abroad, giving him the margin he needs to win both houses of Italy's parliament. But shortly afterward, Berlusconi said: "Nobody now can say they have won."

Final returns had already given Prodi's coalition--an unwieldy alliance ranging from Catholics to communists--the lower Chamber of Deputies, although Berlusconi's forces had already contested that result.

The ministry stressed the results must still be confirmed by Italy's highest court, and that parliament's election committees would have to rule on any challenges.

Prodi told a news conference that his government would be "politically and technically" strong, rebutting concerns about his slim margin of victory and concerns that it would be too weak to enact necessary reforms to bring Italy out of its economic slump.

The former European Commission president also said his government would put Europe at the center of its policies.

"This is a profoundly European result, and as I said, Europe will be the center of the policy of my government," Prodi said, also promising "constructive relations with the United States."

Prodi was strongly opposed to the U.S.-led war in Iraq, while Berlusconi supported Washington and sent 3,000 troops after the ouster of Saddam Hussein.

Graphic showing Italian election results by number of seats won by the main parties in the lower house of parliament. Opposition leader Romano Prodi claimed victory in Italy's knife-edge election, confident he had snatched the Senate to complete a defeat of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.(AFP/Graphic)

Please note that Berlusconi's government was connected with the passing of forged documents regarding the sale of Niger uranium yellowcake to Iraq, as revealed by the La Repubblica expose. The original scam was hatched by SISMI (Italian intelligence) agents to sell old Iraqi WMD files to the CIA for profit, in the wake of the terrorist attacks and the White House arguments for going to war in Iraq. This intelligence scam for profit moved its way up through the Italian government, where Berlusconi realized he could use these Niger documents to cement Italy's relationship with the U.S. at the forefront in the Bush administration's war on terror.

Italian Prime minister Silvio Berlusconi answers journalists' questions, during a press conference at Rome palazzo Chigi, on April 6. Italian elections appeared to have stripped President George W. Bush of another Iraq war ally in Silvio Berlusconi, with staunch US partner Tony Blair barely holding on in Britain.(AFP/File/Andreas Solaro)

My how fortunes have changed. Italian opposition to the war has forced Berlusconi to withdrawal Italian troops from Iraq by September. In fact, the referendum on Berlusconi's government rests on the sluggish Italian economy, rather than Iraq. According to TimesOnline:

Last month, Italy'’s economy failed to grow--an even worse performance than the eurozone'’s sluggish 1.3 per cent. For 14 of the past 15 years, it has grown more slowly than the eurozone average.

Public debt is more than 100 per cent of GDP, the third worst among industrialised countries, and Italy spends more than 4.5 per cent of GDP on paying the interest.

Its share of world trade is dropping fast, to 2.7 per cent in 2005, down from 4.3 per cent a decade before. Those beautiful handbags and shoes, made by small family firms across the North, are being swept away in a tide of imports from China and other Asian countries.

One government official said recently that the only strategy to counter the Chinese threat was “to make nicer handbags”.

And the Yahoo News story also notes that Italians voted their pocketbooks in this election:

Italians were mainly preoccupied with finances when they cast their ballots Sunday and Monday.

Berlusconi, 69, a billionaire whose business empire includes TV networks, failed to revitalize a flat economy but promised to abolish a homeowner's property tax. Prodi, 66, said he would revive an inheritance tax abolished by Berlusconi, but only for the richest; he also promised to cut payroll taxes.

So this is an interesting election, and a setback for the Bush administration since the White House lost a key foreign leader who supported the Iraq war. Now the White House will have to deal with a new Italian government, with a new political leader who will certainly not share the Bush administration's ideology regarding terrorism, Iraq, or even Iran. It will be interesting to see where the Italian-US relationship will go from here.

One final little detail to talk about. With Italy's Berlusconi now ousted, the only other strong ally who has supported the U.S. war in Iraq is Great Britain's Prime Minister Tony Blair. And his popularity in Britain has plummeted. According to the April 4th edition of the Washington Post:

A poll published Tuesday found that 47 percent of British voters think Blair should quit by the end of the year, including 34 percent who say he should do so now. Fifty-seven percent agreed with the statement that Blair had "run out of steam" and was unlikely to achieve anything else as prime minister, according to the survey by the Populus polling firm, published in The Times.

However, support within his party _ key to Blair's ability to hold onto office _ remains strong. Half of Labour backers say he should stay until just before the next election, expected in 2009, and only 28 percent want him to go this year.

Voter support for Labour is also healthy. Thirty-six percent of those polled said they backed Labour, up a point from a month ago, and ahead of the Tories' 34 percent. Most of the rest were undecided or supported the third party, the Liberal Democrats.

So Tony Blair is also starting to feel some heat. How long will he last as Prime Minister?