Westly Leads Angelides in Primary Race

AHEAD: State Controller Steve Westly talks with reporters on the first day of the California Democratic State Convention in Sacramento. Westly leads State Treasurer Phil Angelides in a Times Poll.
(Rich Pedroncelli / AP)

Time for some California politics here! Here in the Golden State, we've got ourselves a nice little race going on to see who the Democratic challenger will be to take on Arnold Schwarzenegger for the governor's office this year. And the two Democratic challengers who are duking each other out are State Controller Steve Westly, and Treasurer Phil Angelides. For the past year, I haven't seen much in the news, or even the internet sites, regarding either candidate. I haven't even seen any campaign commercials from either candidate until this last month. I have not seen any campaign literature mailed to me from either candidate. So for the moment, this battle has been waged pretty much out of sight, out of mind.

Now we have this Los Angeles Times article:

State Controller Steve Westly has taken a double-digit lead over Treasurer Phil Angelides in the Democratic contest for governor, but nearly half of likely voters in the June 6 primary are undecided, a new Los Angeles Times poll has found.

The race remains highly volatile: More than half of those who support Westly or Angelides say they could change their minds.

With both still unfamiliar to many Californians, Westly has gained an edge in part by outspending Angelides on biographical television ads. But neither man has started airing negative commercials, which could yet scramble the dynamics of the race. Voting by mail starts in nine days.

For now, Westly leads Angelides among likely Democratic primary voters, 33% to 20%, with 45% undecided.

VOLATILE RACE: State Treasurer Phil Angelides trails Westly by 13% in a Times poll, but 45% of those surveyed were still undecided, and almost half said they could change their minds.
(Rich Pedroncelli / AP)

Now this is fascinating. Westly is leading Angelides? I would have expected Angelides to be leading Westly, simply because of name recognition. But that's not the case. As the Times has said, Westly has gained an edge in part by outspending Angelides on biographical television ads. I've seen a couple commercials that Westly aired that were the equivalent of a video depiction of his resume, both in business and government service. A Phil Angelides commercial that aired last night was also very similar, showing his highlights in government service.

So we've got ourselves a fun Democratic race here!

But there's some more interesting details here in this Times story. Continuing on:

On the Republican side, the poll found signs of a rebound for Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, whom the Democratic nominee will face in November. Schwarzenegger's popularity has risen across a broad spectrum of voter groups since the last Times poll in October, when he was pushing a conservative ballot agenda roundly defeated weeks later.

Now, 44% of California's registered voters approve of Schwarzenegger's job performance, up from 37% in October. But his recovery is shaky: 53% still give him negative job ratings.

More troublesome for the governor: 48% say they will definitely or probably not vote for him in November. Just 31% say they will definitely or probably support his reelection.

Another difficulty for the incumbent is the surly mood of California voters. The poll found that 61% of them see the state as seriously on the wrong track, their grimmest outlook since they ousted Gov. Gray Davis in the 2003 recall.

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger speaks at the annual California Chamber of Commerce Host Breakfast in Sacramento, Calif., Tuesday, April 25, 2006.(AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli)

The Governator is in trouble. First, his approval ratings have moved up, since Schwarzenegger has shifted his policies towards the center. But the Governator still has a problem. For the past two years, Schwarzenegger has been governing far to the right of California politics. In his vow to clean up the corruption of Sacramento politics, Schwarzenegger tried to force down special election ballot measures that not only angered those on the center and left of the California political spectrum, but would have stripped political power away from Democratic legislators, liberal interests, unions, and just about anyone who wasn't involved in big business, or with the Religious Right. The Governator made some powerful enemies when he tried to push those special election ballot measures through last year, and failed. Now Schwarzenegger doesn't have any legislative accomplishments that he can tout as a reason for Californians to re-elect him. That's why he's got a 53 percent negative job ratings, and 48 percent saying they will not vote for him in November.

Now back to the Democratic primary. Some more fun details here:

With the election a little more than five weeks away, voters are paying scant attention to the Democratic primary for governor. Barely a third of likely Democratic primary voters say they are very interested.

Although many have no opinion of the two Democrats, Westly already leads Angelides among every major group of likely voters in the primary, including men, women, Latinos and residents of all California regions.

The controller runs ahead even among groups targeted by Angelides, such as liberals and union members — a sobering turn given Angelides' endorsement by organized labor. Likely voters in the Democratic primary say Westly would do a better job than Angelides on schools, the economy, the state budget and the environment.

Overall, Westly has left a favorable impression on 58% of likely voters in the primary; Angelides, 52%.

For now, in the absence of attack ads, just a sliver of Democrats hold unfavorable opinions of either candidate.

So a majority of voters are not paying attention to the primary, Westly leads among all groups targeted by Angelides, both candidates have favorable impressions among the voters, and there is no unfavorable opinions of either candidates--since they haven't aired any attack ads. Expect the attack ads to hit in May or June. But here's a real great detail to ponder on:

Schwarzenegger's fate could indeed hinge partly on who wins the Democratic nomination, the poll suggests. In a hypothetical match-up among registered voters, Westly would unseat the governor, 48% to 39%, if the general election were held today, while Angelides and Schwarzenegger would be tied at 43% apiece.

Now this is an interesting detail. Westly would beat the Governator by about 9 percentage points, while Angelides and Schwarzenegger would be tied. Why does Westly have a greater approval ratings over Schwarzenegger than that of Angelides? Is it because Westly is more of an unknown name--a fresh face over that of Angelides, who may have greater name recognition in California, and perhaps a greater image negativity among voters?

This Times article provides a great little round-up of what is on the California ballot. I myself, as a registered Democrat, have not formed an opinion as to who I would choose between Westly or Angelides. At this moment, I subscribe to the ABA school of thought--Anybody But Arnold! Both Westly and Angelides are probably well qualified to sit in the governor's office. The differences between them is in their political philosophies, of which I have not researched yet. So as this race heats up in the next month or so, I'll certainly be watching it with delight.