Wednesday, June 07, 2006

Business execs say economy is....Good....Bad?

Let's see if you can make any sense of these two stories. I'll start with the first story, titled Survey: Execs expect good business climate. The story is from the Associated Press, on Yahoo News website:

WASHINGTON - Despite rising prices for energy and other materials, America's chief executives feel pretty good about the business climate and are bullish about their sales prospects, according to a survey released Wednesday.

The Business Roundtable's survey also said executives believe the national economy will log solid growth this year of 3.4 percent. That would be slightly less than the 3.5 percent registered last year.


"Our survey shows that CEOs believe the U.S. economy has the strength and stamina to withstand the challenges of high oil prices and rising interest rates," said Hank McKinnell, chairman of the Business Roundtable and chief of Pfizer Inc.

The Business Roundtable is an association of chief executive officers of major corporations, representing a combined workforce of more than 10 million employees and $4.5 trillion in annual revenues. The quarterly survey was based on the responses of 116 of the group's 160 member companies.

Eighty-two percent said their companies were expecting sales to increase in the next six months. Fifteen percent forecast no change and just 3 percent thought sales would decline, the survey found.

The story came out today, June 7, 2006, at 12pm ET. Business execs are happy about the economy. They believe that economic growth will come in at 3.4 percent, and that their sales will increase or maintain their current levels. So they are bullish.

Now check out this little story, titled Execs worried about economy. This story was published on June 7, 2006 at 7:13pm ET. The story is from Reuters, and can be found on the CNN.Com website:

BOSTON (Reuters) - Top U.S. executives are concerned that rising oil prices and interest rates, as well as a possible easing in consumer spending, could bring slower economic growth, according to a pair of surveys released Wednesday.

"There is no doubt that high energy prices, especially in the last several months have posed a challenge to the economy and the nation's leading companies," said Hank McKinnell, chairman of the Business Roundtable and CEO of drug maker Pfizer Inc. (Research), on a conference call with reporters.

A survey of Roundtable members - CEOs from large U.S. companies - found the overall CEO Economic Outlook index was 98.6 in June, down from a 102.2 reading in March. Any number higher than 50 indicates economic expansion.

CEOs expect overall economic growth to be 3.4 percent in 2006, compared with 3.5 percent in 2005 and above their prior view of 3.2 percent. The improved growth outlook for the year largely reflects the strong U.S. 5.3 percent increase in first-quarter gross domestic product, McKinnell said.

A separate study, the Duke University/CFO Magazine Business Outlook, showed that 46 percent of U.S. chief financial officers had grown less optimistic about the economy during the quarter ended June 1, compared with 25 percent who had reported a loss of confidence three months earlier.

McKinnell said that, on balance, CEOs seemed more confident than Wall Street, a difference he attributed to a belief in CEOs' ability to improve productivity to offset rising costs.

Oh My GOD! Rising fuel prices are going to pose a challenge for the U.S. economy! Business execs are worried! But didn't Hank McKinnell say that the same business execs believed that the U.S. economy had the strength and stamina to withstand those same energy costs, and rising prices? Which story should I believe in? Will the U.S. economy soar into the clear blue sky? Or will the U.S. economy get flushed down the toilet?

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