G.O.P. Seen to Be in Peril of Losing House

GOP vulnerability in House races. From New York Times

This is off The New York Times:

WASHINGTON, Sept. 3 — After a year of political turmoil, Republicans enter the fall campaign with their control of the House in serious jeopardy, the possibility of major losses in the Senate, and a national mood so unsettled that districts once considered safely Republican are now competitive, analysts and strategists in both parties say.

Sixty-five days before the election, the signs of Republican vulnerability are widespread.

Indiana, which President Bush carried by 21 percentage points in 2004, now has three Republican House incumbents in fiercely contested races. Around the country, some of the most senior Republicans are facing their stiffest challenges in years, including Representative E. Clay Shaw Jr. of Florida, the veteran Republican on the House Ways and Means Committee; Representative Nancy L. Johnson of Connecticut, a state increasingly symbolic of this year’s political unrest; and Representative Deborah Pryce of Ohio, the No. 4 Republican in the House.

Two independent political analysts have, in recent weeks, forecast a narrow Democratic takeover of the House, if current political conditions persist. Stuart Rothenberg, who had predicted Democratic gains of 8 to 12 seats in the House, now projects 15 to 20. Democrats need 15 to regain the majority. Charles Cook, the other analyst, said: “If nothing changes, I think the House will turn. The key is, if nothing changes.”

Republican leaders are determined to change things. Unlike the Democrats of 1994, caught off guard and astonished when they lost control of the Senate and the House that year, the Republicans have had ample warning of the gathering storm.

The Republicans have controlled all three branches of government for about five years. Now with conditions turning sour on the war in Iraq, the economy, globalization and the loss of jobs, and the impact of high energy and gas prices, American citizens are getting worried and angry at the direction this country is heading. Hence, the Republican vulnerability in the House, and the talk of the Democratic takeover of the House. The Democrats will have a much tougher time in taking over the Senate though. According to the Times article, the Democrats would have to take the Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Montana, Rhode Island, Ohio, Missouri, and possibly Arizona or Virginia --which are both strong Republican states. At the same time, the Democrats would have to beat back Republican challenges in New Jersey, Maryland, and Minnesota. But it is still possible, considering the mood of the electorate. Continuing with the Times article:

In the latest New York Times/CBS News Poll, just 29 percent said the country was headed in the right direction, a measure of national pessimism that rivals the 26 percent who felt that way in October 1994. The war in Iraq, the price of gas and a sense of economic unease all play roles, analysts say. The mood is particularly sour in states like Indiana and Ohio, where it is stoked by local issues and the Republican governors’ political difficulties.

The strategic imperative facing the Republicans, many analysts say, is clear: transform each competitive race from a national referendum on Mr. Bush and one-party Republican rule into a choice between two individuals — and define the Democratic challengers as unacceptable.

“Democrats are trying to indict an entire class of people, who happen to be called Republican candidates for Congress,” said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster handling dozens of House races. “We have to bring individual indictments with different cases and different pieces of evidence.”

Mr. Bolger added, “If you like positive campaigns, you’re going to be let down.”

The question, analysts say, is whether the Republicans’ race-by-race strategy can overcome what is shaping up, so far, as a classic midterm election driven by national issues. “I don’t really care what the national climate is,” said Representative Tom Reynolds of New York, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. “At the end of the day, House races are a choice between two people.”

It is interesting how the Republicans are trying to transform the election from a national referendum on their party towards the choices of individual races. The Republicans know that as a national party, they have focused their attention towards the corporate interests, rich elites, the Religious Right, and the PNAC neocons, rather than to the country as a whole. For the past six years, the Bush administration has been a divider--and not a uniter. The country no longer believes any of the Republican PR-spin. So the only way they can hang on to control of Congress is to shift the entire debate away from the national referendum towards the individual basis. What is ironic is that for the past six years, the Republicans have been focusing their election strategy towards the national debate--Republicans are stronger at national security. Republicans will win the war in Iraq--Democrats will surrender to the terrorists, or "cut and run." Republicans have guided this new booming economy with tax cuts--Democrats will raise taxes and destroy the economic expansion.

Will the Republicans be able to maintain control of Congress? Stay tuned....