Moderate GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee (news, bio, voting record) of Rhode Island faces a serious challenge Tuesday as the last big flurry of primary elections provides another test of the depth of anti-incumbent sentiment and the erosion of the political middle ground.
In all, nine states and Washington, D.C., hold primary elections. Maryland Democrats choose a Senate candidate to go up against Republican Michael Steele, the lieutenant governor. An open House seat in Arizona has drawn a contentious crowd of GOP candidates, as well as several hopefuls on the Democratic side. Minnesota Democrats will pick a candidate for a House seat left open by retiring 14-term Democratic Rep. Martin Sabo.
Many races won't be close, but will set up important November contests that include Senate seats in Arizona and Minnesota, and the race for governor in Maryland, Minnesota, Rhode Island and Wisconsin. Other states holding primaries are Delaware, New Hampshire, New York and Vermont, while the District of Columbia will select mayoral candidates.
Chafee's bid for a second term is the latest race with a moderate targeted by his own party's hard-line critics. Connecticut's Democratic Sen. Joe Lieberman was beaten by anti-war candidate Ned Lamont, though the incumbent is still running as an independent, and Michigan Rep. Joe Schwarz, a moderate Republican targeted by the anti-tax Club for Growth, also was defeated.
Chafee has also been targeted by the Club for Growth, a Washington-based group that has tried, not always successfully, to force candidates to vote against taxes. The group is backing Steve Laffey, a former investment banker and mayor of Cranston, R.I.
Chafee has drawn a remarkable amount of support from national Republicans, especially for a senator who has often been at odds with the party, bucking the administration on tax cuts, civil liberties and the Iraq war. He has the distinction of being the only Republican to vote against the use of military force in Iraq.
Polls a month before the primary showed the two Republicans running even.
Chafee himself acknowledged that the race could hinge on turnout in heavily Democratic Rhode Island, saying a low turnout could mean his defeat. His campaign has encouraged Democrats to drop their party registration so they could vote for him.
Now while this race isn't going to be as big as the Ned Lamont/Joe Lieberman race, it will be interesting to see whether a moderate Republican can hold on to his seat in an increasingly polarized electorate, and government. In fact, Chafee could be considered the Republican opposite of the Democratic Party's own Joe Lieberman. Lieberman was forced out of his Senate seat by an angry Democratic Party with his own loss to Ned Lamont in the Connecticut Democratic primary--although Lieberman is currently running for the U.S. Senate seat in Connecticut as an independent. Will Chafee be able to hold on to his own Senate seat--especially since Chafee faces a strong Republican challenger, and the needed support from Rhode Island Democrats, who may already be angered and disgusted by the Republican Party's leadership in Congress?
There is a bit of irony here. Joe Lieberman was pretty much a conservative Democrat who sided with the Bush administration on the war in Iraq, and many terrorism-related issues. It was Lieberman's cozying up with the Bush White House that caused him to lose the Connecticut Democratic primary. Now we come to Chafee--a moderate Republican who has not just opposed the Bush administration's war in Iraq, but a number of other issues. Chafee is fighting a tough, close race against a more conservative Steve Laffey. Just as Lieberman's cozying up to the Bush administration has angered liberal Democrats, Chafee's distancing himself from the Bush administration may also be angering conservative Republicans. The polarization of this country is not only splitting Congress, but it is also splitting the two political parties--destroying the moderate center that was so useful in bringing compromised legislation. We're going to see more confrontations by Democrats and Republicans in Congress for the next two years than we may have ever seen.
Stay tuned.
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