BAGHDAD, Jan. 7 — The new American operational commander in Iraq said Sunday that even with the additional American troops likely to be deployed in Baghdad under President Bush’s new war strategy it might take another “two or three years” for American and Iraqi forces to gain the upper hand in the war.
The commander, Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, assumed day-to-day control of war operations last month in the first step of a makeover of the American military hierarchy here. In his first lengthy meeting with reporters, General Odierno, 52, struck a cautious note about American prospects, saying much will depend on whether commanders can show enough progress to stem eroding support in the United States for the war.
“I believe the American people, if they feel we are making progress, they will have the patience,” he said. But right now, he added, “I think the frustration is that they think we are not making progress.”
The general laid out a plan to make an impact in Baghdad with the additional troops. Several other military plans since the fall of Baghdad in 2003 have faltered. He said he wanted the new American units, working with three additional Iraqi combat brigades that Iraqi officials say will be deployed in the capital, to move back into the city’s toughest neighborhoods and show that they can “protect the people,” which he said coalition forces had previously failed to do.
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The plans laid out by General Odierno appeared aimed at meeting several goals in what American commanders here say has become a highly complex interplay of American and Iraqi politics, in addition to stabilizing a situation that has threatened to spiral out of control as Iraqi Shiites and Sunnis move ever closer to all-out civil war.
The commanders have acknowledged privately that the new Bush plan is almost certain to represent a last-chance option for persuading Americans that it is worth persisting with the heavy burdens of the war, with more than 3,000 American troops dead and overall costs that are nearing $450 billion.
So the American operational commander, Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, now claims that President Bush's new war strategy will take about two to three years for U.S. and Iraqi forces to gain the upper hand against the insurgents. And it will probably take another two or more years for the U.S. to declare victory in Iraq against the insurgents--giving an estimate of four or more years. Of course, President Bush will be long gone from office, handing this entire Iraq mess to his 2008 successor. If the 2008 president is a Democrat, then President Bush and the Republican Party will blame the Democrats for losing the war. Even if the 2008 president is a Republican, Bush can still wash his hands clean of this mess, saying that the Republican successor will win the war in Iraq. And such a Republican successor will continue escalating this war, rather than "cutting and running." This is nothing more than a last-ditch political effort for President Bush to save his legacy.
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