Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Obama poised to claim victory

That is the headline from Reuters News:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Barack Obama was close to clinching the Democratic presidential nomination on Tuesday, gaining support from a steady parade of uncommitted delegates and pushing rival Hillary Clinton to the verge of defeat.

A dozen superdelegates -- party officials free to back any candidate at the August nominating convention -- announced their support for Obama, putting him within 30 delegates of the 2,118 he needs.

The Illinois senator, who would be the first black nominee of a major U.S. political party, hopes to clinch the honor after polls close in the final two contests in Montana and South Dakota. Those states have 31 delegates at stake.

I think what is happening with the Obama campaign is that Barack Obama is trying to get enough super delegates to commit to him before the Montana and South Dakota primaries close down. Then if Obama can get enough pledged delegates from these two states to send him over 2,118 top, he could then claim victory with the pledged delegates from both states, rather than having the super delegates give him the win. It is all about political PR here.

Now over at the Clinton campaign, there is some serious top-spinning:

The Clinton campaign said she did not plan to concede to Obama at a New York rally later on Tuesday.

"The nomination fight goes on until somebody gets the magic number and that isn't there today and that is not at all what Senator Clinton is going to talk about tonight," Clinton campaign chairman Terry McAuliffe told CNN.

[....]

Clinton and her campaign have sent mixed signals over the last two days about how long she would stay in a presidential race that she began as a heavy favorite but now has little chance of winning.

Campaigning in South Dakota, she said the end of the voting marked "the beginning of a new phase of the campaign" in which she will seek to convince superdelegates that she would be the strongest candidate against McCain in November.

With no more campaign trips to plan, workers who handle Clinton's advance travel arrangements have been told to go to New York or head home until further notice, aides said.

I'm guessing that the Clinton campaign will try one last hope of convincing the super delegates that she is the better candidate, even as Obama is about ready to cinch the nomination. In other words, the campaign spin is nothing more than the Clinton campaign grasping at straws here. Will she take this race all the way to the convention? I can't say. Perhaps over the next couple of days she may try to convince the super delegates to vote for her, but Hillary Clinton will have to end her campaign this week if Obama does get the 2,118 delegates. This is a last-minute sprint for both campaigns to get the last remaining delegates and super delegates. Once one candidate achieves the goal of gaining support of 2,118 pledged and super delegates, then the race is over. And Barack Obama is very close to that finish line. But until the Obama campaign reaches the 2,118 magic number, I'm not concerned if Hillary Clinton wants to continue her campaign. It will only be after Obama succeeds in gaining the 2,118 delegates that Hillary Clinton must concede, and drop out of the race.

So on to Montana and South Dakota!

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