I found this interesting story off
the New York Times:
In
Manhattan, the upscale clothing retailer Barneys will replace the
bankrupt discounter Loehmann’s, whose Chelsea store closes in a few
weeks. Across the country, Olive Garden and Red Lobster restaurants are
struggling, while fine-dining chains like Capital Grille are thriving.
And at General Electric, the increase in demand for high-end dishwashers
and refrigerators dwarfs sales growth of mass-market models.
As
politicians and pundits in Washington continue to spar over whether
economic inequality is in fact deepening, in corporate America there
really is no debate at all. The post-recession reality is that the
customer base for businesses that appeal to the middle class is
shrinking as the top tier pulls even further away.
If
there is any doubt, the speed at which companies are adapting to the
new consumer landscape serves as very convincing evidence. Within top
consulting firms and among Wall Street analysts, the shift is being
described with a frankness more often associated with left-wing
academics than business experts.
“Those
consumers who have capital like real estate and stocks and are in the
top 20 percent are feeling pretty good,” said John G. Maxwell, head of
the global retail and consumer practice at PricewaterhouseCoopers.
In
response to the upward shift in spending, PricewaterhouseCoopers
clients like big stores and restaurants are chasing richer customers
with a wider offering of high-end goods and services, or focusing on
rock-bottom prices to attract the expanding ranks of penny-pinching
consumers.
“As
a retailer or restaurant chain, if you’re not at the really high level
or the low level, that’s a tough place to be,” Mr. Maxwell said. “You
don’t want to be stuck in the middle.”
In one sense, I am not surprised.
When 85 of the richest people on Earth have the same amount of wealth as the bottom half of the global population, why wouldn't businesses start selling luxury items to cater to the wealthy?
General Electric is selling a Cafe line of refrigerators for $1,700 to $3,000--aimed at the top quarter of the market. “This is a person who is willing to pay for features, like a double-oven
range or a refrigerator with hot water,”
said Brian McWaters, a general
manager in G.E.’s Appliance division.
According to the NY Times:
Although
data on consumption is less readily available than figures that show a
comparable split in income gains, new research by the economists Steven
Fazzari, of Washington University in St. Louis, and Barry Cynamon, of
the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, backs up what is already apparent
in the marketplace.
In
2012, the top 5 percent of earners were responsible for 38 percent of
domestic consumption, up from 28 percent in 1995, the researchers found.
Even
more striking, the current recovery has been driven almost entirely by
the upper crust, according to Mr. Fazzari and Mr. Cynamon. Since 2009,
the year the recession ended, inflation-adjusted spending by this top
echelon has risen 17 percent, compared with just 1 percent among the
bottom 95 percent.
More
broadly, about 90 percent of the overall increase in inflation-adjusted
consumption between 2009 and 2012 was generated by the top 20 percent
of households in terms of income, according to the study, which was
sponsored by the Institute for New Economic Thinking, a research group
in New York.
The
effects of this phenomenon are now rippling through one sector after
another in the American economy, from retailers and restaurants to
hotels, casinos and even appliance makers.
The question I would ask here is just how many $3,000 refrigerators with hot water, or double-oven ranges, or steak dinners at the Capitol Grill, are these upper 5 percent, or even 20 percent earners are willing to consume? Yes, they are spending now.
More wealth is flowing upwards. But there is only so much demand for such luxury products. The hollowed out middle class, working class and poor? They don't have the money to spend on such products. They don't have the money to consume at the stores selling to such market segments--hence the troubles at J.C. Penny and Sears. Even WalMart, the ultimate big box retailer which sells to low working class and poor,
is now reporting that cuts to the government food stamps is hurting their bottom line:
Walmart Friday said bad weather and cuts in food stamp support for
the poor weighed on US sales and would hit earnings for its
November-January fourth quarter.
Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer and the country’s
largest single private sector employer, said it now expects sales at its
namesake US stores and its Sam’s Club chain to be “slightly negative”
for the quarter, which included the crucial holiday shopping period.
Previously the company forecast “relatively flat” sales at Walmarts and 0-2 percent growth at Sam’s Clubs.
Walmart reports fourth-quarter earnings on February 20. The company
had previously forecast underlying earnings of $1.60-$1.70 per share.
“Despite a holiday season that delivered positive comps, two factors
contributed to lower comp sales performance,” said Walmart chief
financial officer Charles Holley — referring to sales at comparable
stores.
Holley cited deeper-than-expected cuts to benefits under the US
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program — food support for the poor —
and heavy weather in some areas that had forced some temporary store
closings and kept consumers away.
I am starting to wonder when this entire economic house of cards will start crashing down. Then again, they can always go to Eko Atlantic.
UPDATE: Charles P. Pierce has a more profound take on this NY Times story in his
The Politics Blog:
American "business," a concept that runs from your local pharmacist to Goldman Sachs, which then steals it all and runs away, pronounces itself
startled that, having worked diligently at its highest levels to burn
the entire house down, it is now difficult to see the TV clearly through
all the smoke.
As politicians and pundits in Washington continue to
spar over whether economic inequality is in fact deepening, in corporate
America there really is no debate at all. The post-recession reality is
that the customer base for businesses that appeal to the middle class
is shrinking as the top tier pulls even further away. If there is any
doubt, the speed at which companies are adapting to the new consumer
landscape serves as very convincing evidence. Within top consulting
firms and among Wall Street analysts, the shift is being described with a
frankness more often associated with left-wing academics than business
experts.
Perhaps because the former have been right all along, and the latter
have been in the thrall of thieves and mountebanks, and almost 40 years
of retrograde economic policy that have shoved the nation's wealth into a
smaller and smaller place at the very toppermost of the poppermost.
Suddenly, lo and behold, the blog's First Law Of Economics -- Fk The Deficit. People Got No Jobs. People Got No Money -- kicks in and, unless, you're selling yachts, business goes sour because...wait for it...nobody can afford to buy anything! Hoocodanode?
And he's completely right. This really is a demand issue. When wages have remained stagnant, with all the productivity gains going to the ubber-rich and corporations, ordinary people do not have money to purchase the middle-class goods and services that corporations have been trying to sell them. Now that only the rich have all the money, corporate business has decided to abandon the middle and working class to sell luxury products to the ubber-rich. But still, the rich are not going to purchase 10 or 20 or 30 G.E. Cafe line of $4,000 refrigerators. Interestingly enough, in reading a lot
of comments on Charles Pierce's post, and on the
NY Times story, there are plenty of comments on Henry Ford paying his factory workers higher wages to build his Ford cars, then those same factory workers would be purchasing Ford cars, thus generating more demand for his Ford cars. Will Corporate America ever learn this lesson?
Probably not.