Concern is building among the military and the intelligence community that the US may be preparing for a military strike on Iran, as military assets in key positions are approaching readiness, RAW STORY has learned.
According to military and intelligence sources, an air strike on Iran could be doable in June of this year, with military assets in key positions ready to go and a possible plan already on the table.
Speculation has been growing on a possible air strike against Iran. But with the failure of the Bush administration to present a convincing case to the UN Security Council and to secure political backing domestically, some experts say the march toward war with Iran is on pause barring an "immediate need."
"In March/April of this year [the US] was pushing for quick closure, a thirty day window," says a source close to the UN Security Council, describing efforts by the Administration to "shore up enough support" to get a UN Chapter 7 resolution.
A UN Chapter 7 resolution makes it possible for sanctions to be imposed against an uncooperative nation and leaves the door open to military action.
So the Bush administration has been pushing to get both the military and diplomatic ducks in their rows for a possible air strike against Iran. It is interesting that the Bush administration has been pushing to get this UN Chapter 7 resolution passed before April. If the resolution was passed by April, or even by May, this would give the Bush White House a slim legal justification for imposing economic sanctions against Iran for three months or so, before declaring that sanctions were not having a desired affect. This would open the way for the Bush administration to attack Iran before the November midterm elections. Continuing on:
The UN source also says that a military analysis suggests that no military action should be undertaken in Iran until spring of 2007, but that things remain volatile given this administrationÂ’s penchant for having "their own way."
Other military and intelligence sources are expressing concern both privately and publicly that air strikes on Iran could come earlier than believed.
Retired Air Force Colonel and former faculty member at the National War College Sam Gardiner has heard some military suggestions of a possible air campaign in the near future, and although he has no intimate knowledge of such plans, he says recent aircraft carrier activity and current operations on the ground in Iran have raised red flags.
"I would expect two or three aircraft carriers would be moved into the area," Gardner said, describing what he thinks is the best way air strikes could be carried out without disengaging assets from US fronts in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Two air-craft carriers are already en route to the region, RAW STORY has found. The USS Abraham Lincoln, which recently made a port call in Singapore, and the USS Enterprise which left Norfolk, Virginia earlier this month, are headed for the Western Pacific and Middle East. The USS Ronald Reagan is already operating in the Gulf.
In addition to aircraft carrier activity, Gardiner says, B-2 bombers would be critical.
"I would expect the B-2's, the main firepower asset, to be flown on missions directly from the United States," Gardiner explained. "I would expect B-52's to be flown in strikes from the UK and Diego Garcia."
Intelligence sources confirm hearing the allegations of a June attack, but have been unable to fully confirm that such an attack is in the works. Both the New Yorker and the Washington Post have previously reported that the Pentagon is studying military options on Iran.
All sources, however, agree that given the administrationÂ’s interest in regime change, an attack on Iran is likely, regardless of international support or UN backing. Furthermore, all sources agree that Gardiner'’s scenario is the most probable, including an estimated duration and "pause" assessment.
So we've got three nuclear carriers heading towards the Middle East. And now we've got rumors that the Bush administration could attack Iran by June. I was expecting the Bush White House to attack Iran by October, but now with the recent revelations of the NSA database of domestic American phone numbers, and the recent drop in Bush's poll numbers to 29 percent, I fear that President Bush is moving his timetable up a few months. President Bush, Dick Cheney, and even Karl Rove may feel that they have no choice here. Without a sharp increase in their public opinion polls over the next couple of months, the Republicans could be on the verge of losing both houses of Congress. So they might just be pulling the "wartime president" page from their old playbook, and hope that Americans will rally around their president once more in fighting against the evil Iranian terrorists.
This scares me.
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