Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani has apparently taken the first step toward a presidential run, filing with the New York Department of State late last week to form a presidential exploratory committee .
Papers for the "Rudy Giuliani For President Exploratory Committee, Inc." were filed last Friday in New York. It is registered as a "domestic not for profit organization."
"Mayor Giuliani has not made a decision yet," said treasurer John H. Gross. "With the filing of this document, we have taken the necessary legal steps so an organization can be put in place and money can be raised to explore a possible presidential run in 2008."
Unlike people like Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack (D) or Arizona Sen. John McCain (R), who will file their exploratory committees with the Federal Election Commission, Giuliani chose to file his organization with New York's Secretary of State.
Why? Early reports from campaign finance lawyers suggest that Giuliani will not be required to disclose any of his donations or expenditures through the state registered not-for-profit; he would not have that luxury with a federal committee. With the state-based organization he would not be able to accept any donations over the federal limits (roughly $2,100 per each individual), but would be able to transfer any money he raises into a federal presidential account. The FEC calls this sort of activity "testing the waters" -- and provides specific guidelines for candidates choosing this fundraising route.
In our most recent Friday Presidential Line, Giuliani is ranked as the third-most likely candidate to win the Republican nomination.
Aside from the particulars, Giuliani's toe-dip into the presidential waters isn't terribly surprising. He spent much of the final few months of the 2006 campaign stumping for House and Senate candidates around the country. However, he has yet to begin building campaign infrastructures in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire.
A couple thoughts on this story. First, there is no way that Giuliani, a moderate Republican, can garner enough support from both the neocons and the Religious Right wing sections of the Republican Party to make a serious run for the White House. For all the "thumping" that the Republican Party took in the midterm elections, it is still a Republican Party of George W. Bush's molding, with its emphasis in divisive politics, its refusal to compromise, or even in engaging in bipartisanship with the Democrats. The Republican Party is still a hard right-wing party, no matter what the political pundits are saying in the aftermath of the elections. There is no room for a moderate Republican of Giuliani's stature in the presidential political race.
The second problem with the Giuliani 2008 presidential campaign is John McCain. According to a November 10, 2006 ABC News story:
ABC News has learned that Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and his political team have decided it's full steam ahead for his 2008 presidential campaign though he has yet to make the final, official decision.
Sources close to McCain say on Wednesday in Phoenix, he and a half dozen of his top aides huddled and decided to proceed more formally with his quest for the White House.
McCain told ABC News that his team will continue to meet and "go through the process of decision making." But, he added, "I certainly haven't made any decision."
A presidential exploratory committee is expected to be set up this month — perhaps as early as next week.
John McCain has been lusting after the White House since 2000, when McCain lost the Republican presidential nomination to George W. Bush. For the past year, McCain has been courting the Religious Right wing of the Republican Party, delivering a commencement address at Jerry Falwell's Liberty University on May 13. McCain has been courting the Religious Right voters in the hopes of averting the disaster McCain experienced back in 2000, where Bush supporters spread "salacious rumors about McCain in phone calls and e-mail messages. One such rumor accused McCain of fathering illegitimate children." This smear campaign against McCain caused McCain to lose the South Carolina primary to Bush.
The real issue here is that this is probably the last shot that John McCain has for winning the White House. In 2008, John McCain will be 72 years old--McCain will be the oldest president elected to the White House. Ronald Reagan was 69 when he was elected to the presidency in 1980. The last thing that John McCain will want is to have a nasty Republican primary race with the former New York City mayor, and the Republican Party's 9/11 political hero, Rudolph Giuliani. It is no wonder that Giuliani filed his exploratory bid through the state of New York, rather than through the Federal Election's Commission. Not only does this allow Giuliani to accept contributions greater than the FEC limit, but that Giuliani may also realize just how formidable the McCain organization could become, once McCain officially enters the race.
The race for the 2008 White House has just started.
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