One last look at the polls before the election

Graphic by New York Times

Well, I'm going to look at one last poll (I think) before the elections next Tuesday. This is from The New York Times:

WASHINGTON, Nov. 1 — A substantial majority of Americans expect Democrats to reduce or end American military involvement in Iraq if they win control of Congress next Tuesday and say Republicans will maintain or increase troop levels to try to win the war if they hold on to power on Capitol Hill, according to the final New York Times/CBS News poll before the midterm election.

The poll showed that 29 percent of Americans approve of the way President Bush is managing the war, matching the lowest mark of his presidency. Nearly 70 percent said Mr. Bush did not have a plan to end the war, and 80 percent said Mr. Bush’s latest effort to rally public support for the conflict amounted to a change in language but not policy.

The poll underlined the extent to which the war has framed the midterm elections. Americans cited Iraq as the most important issue affecting their vote, and majorities of Republicans and Democrats said they wanted a change in approach. Twenty percent said they thought the United States was winning in Iraq, down from a high this year of 36 percent in January.

Even beyond the war, the Times/CBS News poll, like most other polls this fall, contained worrisome indicators for Republicans as they go into the final days of a campaign in which many are bracing for a loss of seats in both the House and the Senate.

Well, the not-so-much big news here is that Iraq still frames the debate--no matter how much President Bush and the Republicans are trying to spin tax cuts, gay marriage, or even John Kerry's remarks as a means to keep the American voters attention away from the disaster. What is especially shocking are the details within the poll--look at this little detail in the second paragraph of the Times story: Nearly 70 percent said Mr. Bush did not have a plan to end the war, and 80 percent said Mr. Bush’s latest effort to rally public support for the conflict amounted to a change in language but not policy. Throughout the campaign season, the Bush administration has been painting the Democratic Party as the "cut-and-run" party, saying that the Democrats will lose the Iraq war by withdrawing the troops. The Republicans, Bush counters, will win the Iraq war. This theme has been repeated endlessly by not just the president, but his entire administration. The problem here is that the situation in Iraq is not improving. According to a classified slide obtained by The New York Times:

The conclusions the Central Command has drawn from these trends are not encouraging, according to a copy of the slide that was obtained by The New York Times. The slide shows Iraq as moving sharply away from “peace,” an ideal on the far left side of the chart, to a point much closer to the right side of the spectrum, a red zone marked “chaos.” As depicted in the command’s chart, the needle has been moving steadily toward the far right of the chart.

An intelligence summary at the bottom of the slide reads “urban areas experiencing ‘ethnic cleansing’ campaigns to consolidate control” and “violence at all-time high, spreading geographically.” According to a Central Command official, the index on civil strife has been a staple of internal command briefings for most of this year. The analysis was prepared by the command’s intelligence directorate, which is overseen by Brig. Gen. John M. Custer.

In other words, the U.S. military now knows that the war in Iraq is a lost cause. And yet the Bush administration continues to claim that the Republican Party is the Party that can win the war in Iraq. Is it any wonder why 70 percent of Americans feel that the president doesn't have a plan to end the war? For the past two years, they've been exposed to this type of contradiction between the Bush White House marketing spin, and the news reports that have been coming out of Iraq. And since the American public has been repeatedly exposed to this contradiction between the Bush marketing spin and the news reports, it is also no wonder that 80 percent of the Americans believe that President Bush's "latest effort to rally public support for the conflict amounted to a change in language but not policy." The American public is finally seeing through this contradiction between the Bush administration's spin, and the facts.

There is a lot more here in this NY Times story:

Fifty percent of independent voters, a closely watched segment of the electorate in such polarized times, said they intended to vote for the Democratic candidate, versus 23 who said they would vote for a Republican.

Among registered voters, 33 percent said they planned to support Republicans, and 52 percent said they would vote for Democrats.

This is a big negative for the Republicans--they are losing the independent voters. In the 2004 election, the independents split their vote between President Bush and Democratic Senator John Kerry--with 48 percent of independents voting for Bush, and 49 percent voting for Kerry. Looking at the current New York Times poll, half the independents plan to vote Democratic while only 23 percent of the independents will vote Republican. The independents are the key to this election. With the electorate so polarized between the liberals and conservatives, Democrats and Republicans, the key for both political parties desire to control Congress will be the political party that gets the independent vote. And looking at this poll, the independents are turning towards the Democrats.

There are a few more interesting details in this story. In the first detail, 56 percent of Americans say that President Bush's "campaigning on behalf of candidates had generally hurt them, as compared with 26 percent who said a campaign visit by Mr. Bush helped." This number certainly explains why the president has been campaigning in fairly conservative states, meeting candidates in safe, Republican seats. The president has not traveled to the swing states, where Republican candidates are locked in tight races with the Democrats. And yet, I'm wondering if the Republicans are shifting their tactics slightly. The president will be traveling to Montana for a campaign rally. Montana Republican Senator Conrad Burns is locked in a tight race with Democrat Jon Tester. According to Rasmussen, Tester leads Burns at 51 percent to 47 percent. I don't know if Burns will be attending the rally with the president.

Regarding the "culture of corruption" in Washington, "58 percent of voters said corruption was widespread in Washington; 35 percent said the Republican Party had the most corrupt politicians, compared with 15 percent who said the Democratic Party did." This number certainly reflects the voter's mood that the Republicans are more corrupt than the Democrats. Will this also play a part in the voting?

And the last interesting details in the Times story:

The poll found that the intensity of Democratic support for Democratic candidates was slightly greater than Republican support for Republican candidates, which could give some solace to Democrats who have been concerned that the Republican Party’s formidable get-out-the-vote operation would help them eke out victories in close Congressional races. Ninety percent of Democratic voters are planning to vote Democratic, while 83 percent of Republicans said they would support Republican candidates.

In addition, 50 percent of Democrats said they felt more enthusiastic about voting in this election than in previous ones, compared with 39 percent of Republicans.

But 93 percent of Republicans said they were definitely or probably going to vote next Tuesday, compared with 89 percent of Democrats.

The Democrats are feeling more motivated to support Democratic candidates. They are more enthusiastic about voting in this election than the Republicans--by an 11 percentage point increase. Of course, the real question is will these Democrats definitely vote, where Republicans seem to have a slight edge over that of the Democrats. We will soon find out in five days.