WASHINGTON -- Americans are overwhelmingly resigned to something less than clear-cut victory in Iraq and growing numbers doubt the country will achieve a stable, democratic government no matter how the U.S. gets out, according to an AP poll.
At the same time, dissatisfaction with President Bush's handling of Iraq has climbed to an alltime high of 71 percent. The latest AP-Ipsos poll, taken as a bipartisan commission was releasing its recommendations for a new course in Iraq, found that just 27 percent of Americans approved of Bush's handling of Iraq, down from his previous low of 31 percent in November.
"Support is continuing to erode and there's no particular reason to think it can be turned back," said John Mueller, an Ohio State University political scientist and author of "War, Presidents and Public Opinion." Mueller said that once people "drop off the bandwagon, it's unlikely they'll say 'I'm for it again.' Once they're off, they're off."
Even so, Americans are not necessarily intent on getting all U.S. troops out right away, the poll indicated. The survey found strong support for a two-year timetable if that's what it took to get U.S. troops out. Seventy-one percent said they would favor a two-year timeline from now until sometime in 2008, but when people are asked instead about a six-month timeline for withdrawal that number drops to 60 percent.
There is a couple interesting items regarding this poll. First is overwhelming American opposition towards President Bush's handling of Iraq--with 71 percent opposing the president's handling, verses 27 percent of Americans who approve of the president's handling of Iraq. What is more interesting is that this poll was taken just as the ISG report was being released--I would be especially interested in seeing this poll conducted again next month, just as Americans have had a chance to digest the details and conclusions of the ISG report.
The second interesting detail here is the American public's support for a withdrawal timeline--Seventy-one percent said they would favor a two-year timeline from now until sometime in 2008, but when people are asked instead about a six-month timeline for withdrawal that number drops to 60 percent. No matter how you crunch these numbers, a majority of the American public wants a withdrawal timeline. The difference here is whether the public favors a six-month timeline, or a two-year timeline--and even there, the difference is 11 percentage points.
But there are even more disturbing parallels here in the survey:
The AP-Ipsos survey of 1,000 Americans, taken Monday through Wednesday, underscores growing pessimism about Iraq. Some 63 percent did not expect a stable, democratic government to be established there, up from 54 percent who felt likewise in June. Skepticism was considerably higher among Democrats, with just 22 percent expecting a stable, democratic government, compared with half of all Republicans. The survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
The latest numbers evoke parallels to public opinion about the war in Vietnam four decades ago. Just 9 percent expect the Iraq war to end in clear-cut victory, compared with 87 percent who expect some sort of compromise settlement. A similar question asked by Gallup in December 1965, when the American side of the war still had eight years to run, found just 7 percent believed the war in Vietnam would end in victory.
If the history of the Vietnam war is any guide, we can pretty much guess that the opposition towards the Iraq war could increase as Iraq continues to be a meat-grinder with no end to the conflict--just as the opposition grew during the Vietnam War.
And George W. Bush is completely oblivious to this opposition.
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