Saturday, December 09, 2006

Get your black market Iraqi weapons here--prices are going up!

Get your red-hot Iraqi weapons here--fast! Because prices are going up! Here's the latest New York Times article:

SULAIMANIYA, Iraq, Dec. 8 — The Kurdish security contractor placed the black plastic box on the table. Inside was a new Glock 19, one of the 9-millimeter pistols that the United States issued by the tens of thousands to the Iraqi Army and police.

This pistol was no longer in the custody of the Iraqi Army or police. It had been stolen or sold, and it found its way to an open-air grocery stand that does a lively black-market business in police and infantry arms. The contractor bought it there.

He displayed other purchases, including a short-barreled Kalashnikov assault rifle with a collapsible stock that makes it easy to conceal under a coat or fire from a car. “I bought this for $450 last year,” he said of the rifle. “Now it costs $650. The prices keep going up.”

Prices just keep going up! You better act fast if you want to get that weapon's deal of a lifetime! Continuing with the Times article:

The market for this American-issued pistol and the ubiquitous assault rifle illustrated how fear, mismanagement and malfeasance are shaping the small-arms market in Iraq.

Weapon prices are soaring along with an expanding sectarian war, as more buyers push prices several times higher than those that existed at the time of the American-led invasion nearly four years ago. Rising prices, in turn, have encouraged an insidious form of Iraqi corruption — the migration of army and police weapons from Iraqi state armories to black-market sales.

All manner of infantry arms, from rocket-propelled grenade launchers to weathered and dented Kalashnikovs, have circulated within Iraq for decades.

But three types of American-issued weapons are now readily visible in shops and bazaars here as well: Glock and Walther 9-millimeter pistols, and pristine, unused Kalashnikovs from post-Soviet Eastern European countries. These are three of the principal types of the 370,000 weapons purchased by the United States for Iraq’s security forces, a program that was criticized by a special inspector general this fall for, among other things, failing to properly account for the arms.

The weapons are easy to find, resting among others in the semihidden street markets here, where weapons are sold in tea houses, the back rooms of grocery kiosks, cosmetics stores and rug shops, or from the trunks of cars. Proprietors show samples for immediate purchase and offer to take orders — 10 guns can be had in two hours, they say, and 100 or more the next day.

“Every type of gun that the Americans give comes to the market,” said Brig. Hassan Nouri, chief of the political investigations bureau for the Sulaimaniya district. “They go from the U.S. Army to the Iraqi Army to the smugglers. I have captured many of these guns that the terrorists bought.”

The forces propelling the trade can be seen in the price fluctuations of the country’s most abundant firearm, the Kalashnikov.

In early 2003, a Kalashnikov in northern Iraq typically cost from $75 to $150, depending on its condition, origin and style. Immediately after the invasion, as fleeing soldiers abandoned their rifles and armories were looted, prices fell, pushed down by a glut and a brief sense of optimism.

Today, the same weapons typically cost $210 to $650, according to interviews with seven arms dealers, two senior Kurdish security officials and several customers. In other areas of Iraq, prices have climbed as high as $800, according to Phillip Killicoat, a researcher who has been assembling data on Kalashnikov prices worldwide for the Small Arms Survey, a Geneva-based organization.

So the American taxpayer purchased 370,000 weapons for the Iraqi security forces. And instead of going to the Iraqi security forces, these weapons have found their way into the black market there, where Iraqis are buying them up for protection as Iraq has exploded into civil war. Demand for these American weapons outpaces the supply--hence the $800 Kalashnikovs, or the $650 Glocks.

Of course, the U.S. government and military are to be seriously blamed for their own incompetence when they started sending these 370,000 weapons to the Iraqi security forces. In an October 30, 2006 New York Times story, the U.S. military completely failed in both registering the serial numbers and providing a tracking system for almost a half million weapons that were shipped to the Iraqi security forces. Within that original Times story, the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction concluded that of the 505,093 weapons given to the Ministries of Interior and Defense, only 12,128 serial numbers for these weapons were properly recorded. This included the 370,000 weapons that were purchased by the American taxpayer under the Iraq Relief and Reconstruction Fund, or I.R.R.F. This Times article continued, saying " There were also significant discrepancies in the numbers of weapons purchased and those in Iraqi warehouses. While 176,866 semiautomatic pistols were purchased with American money, just 163,386 showed up in warehouses — meaning that more than 13,000 were unaccounted for. All 751 of the M1-F assault rifles sent to Iraq were missing, and nearly 100 MP-5 machine guns." The pilfering of these weapons were already taking place through the Iraqi supply chain--possibly since this I.R.R.F program was implemented. Unfortunately, the U.S. military can't say where these weapons have gone, since they have no registered serial numbers to track.

When I first read this NY Times article and posted it on my own blog Oh Well: A Commentary, I pretty much knew that the weapons went into the black market--why didn't the U.S. military even consider this possibility? In fact, I saw an incredible contradiction here--the sending of U.S. supplied weapons to the Iraqi security forces that are winding up in the hands of Iraqi terrorists and insurgents. Now we've got the possibility that these weapons are currently in the hands on the insurgents--who are killing American soldiers with weapons purchased by the American taxpayer.

It appears that the statement is starting to come true with a thriving Iraqi weapons' black market. Continuing with the current NY Times story:

Prices began moving upward in the summer of 2003 as several classes of customers entered the market together, Iraqi security officials and the arms dealers said. Western security contractors, Sunni insurgent groups, Shiite paramilitary units and criminals who were released from prison by Saddam Hussein before the war all sought the same weapons at once.

Kalashnikov prices quickly reached $200, they said. Since late last year, prices have been moving up again, as sectarian war has spread. Militias have been growing at the same time that more civilians have been seeking weapons for self-defense — twin demand pressures that pushed prices to new heights this fall.

The surge is evident across a spectrum of arms. Pistol prices have nearly tripled since 2003. Western 9-millimeter pistols now sell for $1,100 to $1,800 in the bazaars of this city. Sniper rifles cost $1,100 to $2,000, the dealers said. In the West, similar pistols sell for $400 to $600.

We've got a classic supply and demand curve here. Iraq is erupting into civil war, and as such the demand for weapons has certainly increased. Iraqi civilians, militias, insurgents, criminals, are all in the market for buying weapons. One major supplier for new Iraqi weapons has been the U.S. government, in trying to supply these weapons to the Iraqi government and security forces. I would say that the U.S. government is the either the primary supplier, or only supplier of weapons inside Iraq, considering that the U.S. military is occupying the country, and the Iraqi government is considered a puppet to the Bush administration. I'm not sure what information exist regarding Syria and Iran funneling weapons into Iraq--if such information even exists--nor do I really want to get into a debate on this subject. So if the only weapons that are coming into Iraq are through the U.S., then you can bet that there will be a premium price being placed on these weapons--especially if they are new pistols and assault rifles. If prices are tripling, then you can bet that Iraqis, who can get their hands on these weapons through the supply chain, or being issued within the Iraqi security forces, are also going to send them into the black market:

Arms dealers say that rising prices have led to more extensive pilfering from state armories, including the widespread theft of weapons the United States had issued to Iraq’s police officers and soldiers.

“In the south, if the Americans give the Iraqis weapons, the next day you can buy them here,” said one dealer, who sold groceries in the front of his kiosk and offered weapons in the back. “The Iraqi Army, the Iraqi police — they all sell them right away.”

No weapons were displayed when two visitors arrived. But when asked, the owner and a friend swiftly retrieved six pistols, a rocket-propelled grenade launcher and three Kalashnikovs from a car and another room.

The rifles and the grenade launcher were wrapped in rice sacks. He slipped two of the rifles out of the cloth. They were spotless and unworn, inside and out, and appeared never to have been used. They had folding stocks and were priced at $560 each.

The dealer said they had recently been taken from an Iraqi armory. “Almost all of the weapons come from the Iraqi police and army,” he said. “They are our best suppliers.”

One pistol was a new Walther P99, a 9-millimeter pistol that the dealer said had been issued by the Americans to the Iraqi police. It was still in its box.

Glock pistols were also easy to find. One young Iraqi man, Rebwar Mustafa, showed a Glock 19 he had bought at the bazaar in Kirkuk last year for $900. Five of his friends have bought identical models, he said.

When asked if he was surprised that the Iraqi police and soldiers sold their own guns, he scoffed.

“Everything goes to the bazaar,” he said.

Supply and demand here. It is especially ironic how the Iraqi police and soldiers can sell their guns for a high profit, and then go back to the Iraqi government to request replacement weapons. And since these are Iraqi police and soldiers, the Iraqi government will certainly issue replacement weapons to them--also supplied by the U.S. government. But what I find even more amazing within this story is the U.S. government, and the U.S. military's incompetence in dealing with this problem:

Lt. Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, commander of the Multi-National Security Transition Command-Iraq, agreed that weapons provided by the United States had slipped from custody.

“I certainly concede that there are weapons that have been lost, stolen and misappropriated,” General Dempsey said. He noted that the inspector general had estimated that 4 percent, or about 14,000 weapons, were lost between arriving in Iraq and being transferred to Iraqi forces. Most of the weapons were pistols.

The general said that he thought the estimate was high and that accountability was improving. A weapons registry was being created, he said. “Serial numbers are being registered,” he said.

But the estimate of a 4 percent loss did not include weapons that were lost or stolen after being issued to Iraqi units. The arms dealers said this was the main source of their goods.

Only 4 percent of the weapons have been lost between arriving in Iraq and being transferred to the Iraqi security forces? Is the American military in Iraq that stupid? It is the Iraqi soldier and police officers who are selling their weapons on the black market, and then going back to their units to report that their guns were stolen. This "stolen gun" is sent up through the supply chain, where the Iraqi government will need more American-supplied weapons to protect Iraq from the insurgents and terrorists--who are also being supplied by these American weapons through the black market. It doesn't take that much of a genius to realize just how much of a mess we've made in Iraq. If we are the only weapons suppliers in Iraq, then this problem of weapons pilfering and black-market trading of American-supplied weapons will remain with their high prices. If we open Iraq up to the free trading of weapons, you can bet that Iraq will flooded with guns going to Iraqi civilians, militias, insurgents, criminals, and terrorists. Prices for these weapons will drop, but it is certain that the flood of new weapons will be used both against the U.S. occupation troops, and within the ethnic civil war. In conclusion, we are damned either way.

Incredible.

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