Saturday, June 30, 2007

Thompson's non-presidential campaign showing signs of sputter in New Hampshire

I found this McClatchy story through Talking Points Memo. From McClatchy News:

BEDFORD, N.H. — When Fred Thompson made his debut on the presidential stage here this week, he left some Republicans thinking he needs more work before his nascent campaign matches the media hype it's gotten in advance.

The former Tennessee senator with the baritone drawl showed up Thursday in New Hampshire, the site of the first primary voting, and gave a speech that lasted only nine minutes, skipping over hot-button issues such as Iraq and immigration to invoke platitudes about freedom and strength.

He left more than a few Republicans disappointed.

The star of the TV series "Law and Order" had won cheers the day before in South Carolina, another early-primary state, in his first trip there since he'd signaled that he'll soon jump into the race for the Republican presidential nomination. But South Carolina and Tennessee are neighbors, while New Hampshire tests whether Thompson's got more than regional appeal. So far, the answer's quite unclear.

``I plan on seeing a whole lot more of you,'' Thompson told about 200 New Hampshire Republicans who paid $50 each to hear him — and to benefit state Republican legislators.

He'd better, because many present came away decidedly under-whelmed.

``It was short,'' said Richard Heitmiller of Nashua. ``He's got a nice voice. But there was nothing there. He's for apple pie and motherhood. He's going to have to say what he's for.''

Heitmiller said he hadn't made up his mind about whom to support — way too early — and had come to learn more about this man he'd heard about but never seen.

``People want to get to know him. He hasn't been here, and he gives a nine-minute speech,'' he said dismissively. As Thompson exited, people started making their way to the doors midway through a reception.

``I told my wife we'd get home by 8. We'll get home a lot earlier than that,'' Heitmiller said.

``He looks good onstage, but I don't know if he has the gravitas,'' said Kathleen Williamson, a conservative Roman Catholic from North Weare. ``It seems like he's trying to win over conservatives, but I'm still not sure he has the credentials. I'm worried he's trying to get by on his celebrity.''

This is going to be a growing problem for the Thompson non-campaign. At the moment, Republican and conservative voters are not thrilled with the current crop of GOP presidential candidates. When you look at the Republican presidential polls, the electorate is pretty much split with Rudy Giuliani taking 30 percent of the vote, John McCain taking around 20 percent, and Fred Thompson taking between 15-20 percent of the vote, while the rest of the vote is split among the rest of the candidates or the unsure. The Republican base is still looking for a GOP candidate, and much of the excitement surrounding Thompson has come from the media image of Thompson playing the "White Knight" in saving the Republican Party, and the conservative agenda, from the disaster of the Bush administration. And Thompson has been politically milking that "White Knight" image in making quasi-campaign appearances in New Hampshire, while at the same time playing coy with the media rumors and speculation as to whether Thompson will enter the 2008 presidential race. And so far, Thompson has done a pretty good job at manipulating the speculation, and keeping his name in the media coverage of the election.

The problem here is that you can only go so far in playing this dark-horse political game. Republican voters like Thompson because he doesn't have the negative political baggage that the rest of the GOP candidates have--McCain is too pandering, Giuliani is pro-life, Romney is a Mormon. The mainstream media loves Thompson because of the rampant speculation of scooping the story of if or when Thompson will announce his candidacy. The longer Thompson plays this dark-horse political game, the more the questions are going to shift as to what specifically Thompson's political views are on the current issues, and what policy programs will a Thompson administration introduce to America? Look again at what the New Hampshire residents said regarding Thompson's speech--It was short. He's got a nice voice. But there was nothing there. He's for apple pie and motherhood. He's going to have to say what he's for. People want to get to know him. He hasn't been here, and he gives a nine-minute speech. He looks good onstage, but I don't know if he has the gravitas. It seems like he's trying to win over conservatives, but I'm still not sure he has the credentials. I'm worried he's trying to get by on his celebrity. Looking at this McClatchy story, it appears that the Thompson speech in New Hampshire had no meat to it. Thompson provided no opinions as to where he stood on the issues, nor is he willing to provide his qualifications and experience to the New Hampshire voters for his presidential run. Thompson can only go so far in presenting fluffy campaign speeches--especially when he is charging $50 a person to attend those speeches. New Hampshire voters are going to want to know why they should vote for Fred Thompson, when Fred Thompson has not given them any reasons to vote for him--other than he is not one of the established candidates. Otherwise those same New Hampshire conservative voters are going to start ignoring Thompson because he has no gravitas.

I figure Thompson has another week, or two, that he can spend, presenting fluffy, saccharine-styled speeches to the voters. After that, Thompson is either going to have to announce his candidacy, or start presenting strong opinions and policy recommendations on the issues if Thompson wants to continue being a top-tier candidate. And next week is the Fourth of July week, presenting Thompson a great political opportunity to announce his "White Knight" presidential candidacy to save the conservative movement and bring back Morning in America.

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