U.S. military says Iraqi government wasting an opportunity for reconciliation

Graph showing the number of civilian deaths in Iraq over the past two years. From The Washington Post.

This is from The Washington Post:

CAMP LIBERTY, Iraq -- Senior military commanders here now portray the intransigence of Iraq's Shiite-dominated government as the key threat facing the U.S. effort in Iraq, rather than al-Qaeda terrorists, Sunni insurgents or Iranian-backed militias.

In more than a dozen interviews, U.S. military officials expressed growing concern over the Iraqi government's failure to capitalize on sharp declines in attacks against U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians. A window of opportunity has opened for the government to reach out to its former foes, said Army Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the commander of day-to-day U.S. military operations in Iraq, but "it's unclear how long that window is going to be open."

The lack of political progress calls into question the core rationale behind the troop buildup President Bush announced in January, which was premised on the notion that improved security would create space for Iraqis to arrive at new power-sharing arrangements. And what if there is no such breakthrough by next summer? "If that doesn't happen," Odierno said, "we're going to have to review our strategy."

Brig. Gen. John F. Campbell, deputy commanding general of the 1st Cavalry Division, complained last week that Iraqi politicians appear out of touch with everyday citizens. "The ministers, they don't get out," he said. "They don't know what the hell is going on on the ground." Campbell noted approvingly that Lt. Gen. Aboud Qanbar, the top Iraqi commander in the Baghdad security offensive, lately has begun escorting cabinet officials involved in health, housing, oil and other issues out of the Green Zone to show them, as Campbell put it, "Hey, I got the security, bring in the [expletive] essential services."

Indeed, some U.S. Army officers now talk more sympathetically about former insurgents than they do about their ostensible allies in the Shiite-led central government. "It is painful, very painful," dealing with the obstructionism of Iraqi officials, said Army Lt. Col. Mark Fetter. As for the Sunni fighters who for years bombed and shot U.S. soldiers and now want to join the police, Fetter shrugged. "They have got to eat," he said over lunch in the 1st Cavalry Division's mess hall here. "There are so many we've detained and interrogated, they did what they did for money."

This is a big story. What it means here is that the civil war in Iraq may be starting to wind down because the Sunni fighters need to go back to making money so they can eat. It is not because the Sunni fighters are giving up here, nor is the Iraqi government or U.S. military winning the war here. The ethnic war in Iraq is slowing down for a moment, as the Sunnis work and save money. When the Sunnis have saved enough to start the war up again, the ethnic civil war will continue on.

Now we come to the problem with the Iraqi government. The civil war is a war between the three ethnic groups Shiites, Sunnis, and Kurds. They are all fighting for control of Iraq's resources--especially the oil here--and no one wants to cede control of any resources to help bring essential services to the Iraqi people, regardless of ethnicity. The Shiite-controlled Iraqi government fears an encroaching Sunni power within the government could force the Shiites out of power. So the Shiite government in Iraq is unwilling to compromise or reconcile with the Sunnis. Going back to the WaPost story:

Diplomatic officials, none of whom were authorized to speak on the record, insisted that progress is being made, even if it lags behind military successes. They highlighted two key elements needed for political reconciliation in Iraq, one domestic and one external. Internally, sectarian politicians remain deadlocked on a range of issues. Shiite political groups are holding back as they vie for national power and control over resources, while the majority Shiite population fears that the Sunnis hope to recapture the dominance they held under Saddam Hussein.

[....]

The U.S. military approach in Iraq this year has focused on striking deals with Sunni insurgents, under which they stop fighting the Americans and instead protect their own neighborhoods. So far about 70,000 such volunteers have been enrolled -- a trend that makes the Shiite-led central government nervous, especially as the movement gets closer to Baghdad.

Indeed, all the U.S. military officials interviewed said their most pressing concern is that Sunnis will sour if the Iraqi government doesn't begin to reciprocate their peace overtures. "The Sunnis have shown great patience," said Campbell. "You don't want the Sunnis that are working with you . . . to go back to the dark side."

The Army officer who requested anonymity said that if the Iraqi government doesn't reach out, then for former Sunni insurgents "it's game on -- they're back to attacking again."

If there is no agreement between the three ethnic groups on the sharing of power and resources within Iraq, will walk away from the table, and pick up their arms again to start fighting. The Iraqi government needs to realize that now is the time to make a deal with the Sunnis. However, considering that the Shiites want to take control of as much power and resources as they can, I doubt that there will be any serious attempts at reconciliation by the Shiites over the next six months to a year. Expect the fighting to pick up again.