Friday, May 09, 2008

Pros and cons of an Obama / Clinton unity ticket

In my previous posting, I noted the potential power of an Obama / Clinton unity ticket as a means of unifying the Democratic Party as a means to attack the Republican Party under John McCain for the 2008 race to the White House. I have consistently said that both Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama will have to sit down and make a deal in order to bind this Democratic Party together for the general election. I still believe this to be true--whether Obama selects Clinton as his running mate, or if Clinton becomes the Senate Majority leader, or even is selected as a Supreme Court justice, a deal has to be made between these two campaigns.

Here is where I want to bring up the pros and cons of an Obama / Clinton unity ticket. The New Republic has two articles up, representing both sides of this unity ticket debate. The Democratic Strategist's managing editor Ed Kilgore gives the pro arguments for a unity ticket, while Guardian America's editor Michael Tomasky gives the con arguments against the unity ticket.

First Ed Kilgore on the pro arguments for the Obama / Clinton unity ticket:

The answer is simple, and for me at least, overwhelmingly compelling. Right now the Democratic Party is deeply divided, as evidenced by the steadily rising number of Democratic primary voters threatening to take a dive in November. Those divisions are, in fact, John McCain's most important political asset. Yet they are not about ideology, or about policy issues, really; they are about these two Democratic politicians, and all the symbolic freight each has assumed. The easiest way, the fastest way, and the only sure way, to heal these divisions is to unite their sources on a single ticket.

Sure, many, perhaps most, disgruntled Clinton voters will "come home" in any event, and Obama could appeal to some vulnerable constituencies through a different choice for running-mate. But nothing quite scratches the itch like a unity ticket.

Would Hillary Clinton as a vice presidential candidate overshadow Obama? There's no reason to think that; his candidacy remains the big political story of the year. And let's have no illusions that if the Clintons are assigned a minor role in the fall campaign, they won't be a distraction. For one thing, the Democratic National Convention, no matter how well stage-managed it is, will be "about" Obama's narrow margin of victory and his and others' efforts to unite the party. A unity ticket will greatly enhance the positive side of that story. As for the much-cited idea that Hillary's presence on the ticket will "energize" conservatives, I think the events of the last few weeks have abundantly shown their willingness to whip themselves up in a hate frenzy towards Barack Obama as much as Clinton.

Symbolism aside, Hillary Clinton would bring some tangible political assets to the Democratic ticket. Even if you dismiss her relative strength in the primaries among white working-class voters, older voters, Appalachians, or Catholics as ephemeral or irrelevant to a general election campaign, there is simply no denying her personal and positive appeal to professional women and Latinos, with whom she has generated as much excitement as Obama has among younger voters and African-Americans. She would also bring some national security street cred to the ticket, which is an Obama vulnerability that I suspect is being underappreciated at the moment.


And now Michael Tomasky on the con arguments against an Obama / Clinton unity ticket:

The case for the unity ticket is pretty obvious and is implied in the adjective. Ed Kilgore made the case well here yesterday, and it's an argument worth taking seriously, which is why I've come around to it a little. And yet. ...

Actually there are several and yets. Number one: Substantively, something tells me that Vice President Clinton couldn't work very well with President Obama. She'd always be thinking, "Well, I'd have done it this way." She would demand, because of her stature, some kind of major portfolio. Her track record with major portfolios is other than encouraging.

And if Mr. Clinton as First Husband seemed problematic, what of him padding around the Naval Observatory? A former president married to a current president would at least mean that the two were working more or less as a team. A former president married to a current vice president who really thinks she should be president creates the potential for way too much mischief that could undermine the president.

[....]

One problem is that I think a Clinton choice would be aimed solely at Democrats. It would be popular among them, but what about non-Democrats? Let's note something that's been little remarked upon so far this season. People keep talking about the stunning turnout in these primaries, and, for primaries, this has surely been the case. About 33 million people have voted.

But how many people voted in the last general election? Around 122 million. With interest seeming higher this year, and if Obama can indeed register many new voters, there is every reason to think that 100 million more people will vote on November 4 than have voted cumulatively over the last 18 weeks. Hillary on the ticket would clearly go down well among a large majority of the 33 million who've voted. But what about the other 100 million? How would putting Hillary Clinton on the ticket strike them?

It would depend of course on who they are. She has performed reasonably well among independents, especially more recently, so maybe this is a false alarm. But I suspect that by and large, her popularity is limited to Democrats. Which means I'm not sure she'd help in the traditional way vice presidential candidates are supposed to help.

And it's possible she could even hurt. If she'd been the nominee, or if she still somehow manages to become it, we can be certain that many millions of conservatives would come out to vote against her. They would not do so in anything like similar numbers if she were merely the bottom half of the ticket. But some number would. She could serve as a sort of "tipping-point" of negative motivation for conservatives. That is, Obama combined with X--Sam Nunn, say; and he's not my candidate, but I mean that kind of person--would be bad from the conservative point of view. But an Obama-Clinton ticket would be an out-and-out crisis. Obama has enough of his own problems.

I will admit that both editors make compelling arguments for and against an Obama / Clinton unity ticket. Thinking about how toxic this Democratic race has become, I'm starting to wonder whether such a ticket will even happen, or should it happen. The Washington Monthly's Kevin Drum provides and interesting take on this unity ticket:

A strong vice president is one thing, but if you choose Hillary as a running mate you get the whole Clinton family in the bargain, and having Bill Clinton as a de facto part of the White House staff just smells like big trouble. That aside, the bigger issue is that picking Hillary would be a sign of weakness from Obama, and a completely unnecessary one. Obama certainly ought to reach out to Hillary once the primaries are over, but he can win in November on his own, and there are plenty of good, solid VP choices out there that would nonetheless make it crystal clear that an Obama White House would be an Obama White House.

What's more, Hillary can probably do more good in the Senate than she can from the veep's chair. I'd rather have her there anyway.

If there is a more compelling argument against the unity ticket, this could be it. When you bring Hillary Clinton into the Vice Presidency, you are bringing in the entire Clinton family with Bill being part of the White House staff.

I have been thinking about the arguments for and against the unity ticket, and it may not be a good idea for Barack Obama to choose Hillary Clinton as his running mate because of these negatives that both Tomasky and Drum present. I still believe that both candidates will have to make a deal with each other, however considering Hillary Clinton's policy wonk talents, I believe that she would be a stronger political force either as Senate Majority Leader, or even involved in a cabinet-level position like Health and Human Services, where Hillary Clinton could become a driving force for reforming the health care system within an Obama administration. And I can certainly see Obama selecting Clinton for a Supreme Court position, which could bring an amazing capstone to Hillary Clinton's political career. So there are some incredible opportunities for Hillary Clinton to continue to further her political career.

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