Thoughts on the Indiana / North Carolina primaries

I've been a little busy this week, but I did note the results of Tuesday's Democratic Indiana / North Carolina primaries. Again, it was a split decision, with Hillary Clinton taking Indiana and Barack Obama taking North Carolina. And yes, there were some interesting details to look at within these races. In North Carolina, Obama defeated Clinton 56 percent to 42 percent. In Indiana, Clinton squeaked by Obama with a 51 percent to 49 percent win. Clinton received 60 percent of the white voters in both states over Obama's 40 percent of the white vote in Indiana and 36 percent in North Carolina. Obama won an overwhelming majority of black voters in both states, with 92 percent in Indiana and 91 percent in North Carolina.

So what does this all mean? Again, we have a tie. The Democrats like both candidates and have enthusiastically supported both of them throughout this primary race. Clinton has the message of experience and leadership that the Democrats like. Obama has the message of change--the Democrats also like the message of change. Both candidates have shown their own unique set of strengths and weaknesses during this campaign season--Clinton has shown just how hard of an attack dog she can be with the "kitchen sink" strategy of negative campaigning against Obama. Obama has shown a tough, almost Teflon resilience, in fending off the relentless attacks by the Clinton campaign. Obama has shown a mastery of out-raising money and out-campaigning Clinton, yet he can't seem to close the deal with the Democrats. And while Clinton's campaign is running on fumes, she is still somehow surviving and fighting against the Obama machine. And whether the Democratic voters are tired of this exhausting campaign season or not, the message that they are sending here is that they like both candidates. It is a fascinating dynamic that I don't think I have ever seen in any presidential campaign.

The bottom line now is that Barack Obama will become the Democratic nominee for president. The delegate math shows that Obama will come into this convention with around 100 pledged delegate lead (including Michigan and Florida), and a 200,000 popular vote lead. From YouTube:



And yet while the delegate math is showing that Obama will become the Democratic nominee, I do not think that Obama has shown that he can close the deal. The Democrats are still sending this message that they like both candidates. So the real question for Obama now is how can he heal this fractured Democratic Party and concentrate its focus now on Republican candidate John McCain. Because as long as Hillary continues fighting for the nomination, the healing process will take more time away from the Obama campaign with engaging in a general election campaign. This is a question that I can't even answer.

Then there is Hillary Clinton. She has run an incredibly spirited campaign, and she would probably have been the first credible, female Democratic presidential candidate--had a first, credible, African-American, Democratic candidate named Barack Obama decided not to jump into the presidential race. It is amazing that she has come this far, and still continues to fight against all political odds for this nominee prize.

But I do believe that this prize is well beyond her reach. Baring some unforeseen catastrophe within the Obama campaign, Clinton will come into the Democratic convention behind Obama in the delegate count. The super-delegates will know that and will question why Clinton is the superior candidate when she is behind Obama in both the delegate count and even the money count. Clinton has thrown the kitchen sink at Obama with negative attacks in North Carolina and Indiana, and she just barely won in Indiana. The media is even now speculating that Hillary Clinton should drop out of the race.

Should Clinton drop out of the race? That is a question that only Hillary can answer. But I do believe that the Indiana and North Carolina results show that the Clinton campaign's kitchen sink strategy of negative campaigning against Obama has clearly failed. Hillary Clinton has clearly alienated the African-American vote with this negative campaigning, and even if she does become the Democratic nominee, she may never be able to regain the African-American vote for the general election. But Clinton can shift her campaign strategy away from attacking Obama, and concentrate on both promoting a positive campaign for Democratic votes and engaging in a relentless attack against Republican candidate John McCain. Here the Clinton campaign could shift from seeking the Democratic nomination prize, to gaining as much political influence as Hillary Clinton can before the convention. As I have said before, this race has become a tie, with the Democratic voters supporting both candidates. Barack Obama will have the lead in the delegate count, and will not doubt become the presumptive nominee, once the primary races are finished and the super-delegates will come out in support for Obama. But Obama will be unable to unite this fractured Democratic Party without Hillary Clinton's support. And whether they both like each other or not, a unified ticket with Obama president / Clinton vice president is one way to unite the Democrats and potentially give a powerhouse ticket to defeat the Republicans and McCain in November. And even if there is not a unified ticket, Clinton could still walk away with a shot at replacing Harry Reid as Senate Majority Leader in 2009. So there are certainly reasons for Hillary to stay in the race. The difference here is that the race is no longer about gaining delegates or winning the nominee, but rather about gaining political influence when the convention dealing starts up in August.

And here is where I will leave with a final comment. Because we have both the Democratic Party's split between the two candidates, and Obama's 100-plus lead in the delegate count, both candidates will need to make a deal in order to unify the Democratic Party in the race against John McCain. Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee, and Hillary Clinton will have to accept that. But Obama will also have to accept that Hillary Clinton will have a huge influence in shaping this race, with almost half of the Democratic Party supporting her. Obama will have to give some major concessions to Clinton in order to bring not just her support, but those who have voted for Clinton in these states' primaries and caucuses. A deal will have to be worked out between these two candidates--whether they like each other or not. It is the only way to bind the country together in the next face-off against McCain.