Vice President Dick Cheney is expected to retire within a year.
Senior GOP sources envision the retirement of Mr. Cheney in 2007, months after the congressional elections. The sources said Mr. Cheney would be persuaded to step down as he becomes an increasing political liability to President Bush.
The sources reported a growing rift between the president and vice president as well as their staffs. They cited Mr. Cheney's failure to immediately tell the president of the accidental shooting of the vice president's hunting colleague earlier this month. The White House didn't learn of the incident until 18 hours later.
Mr. Cheney's next crisis could take place by the end of the year, the sources said. They said the White House was expecting Mr. Cheney to defend himself against charges from his former chief of staff, Lewis Libby, that the vice president ordered him to relay classified information. Such a charge could lead to a congressional investigation and even impeachment proceedings.
"Nothing will happen until after the congressional elections," a GOP source said. "After that, there will be significant changes in the administration and Cheney will probably be part of that."
The sources said the accidental shooting highlighted the lack of communications between Bush and Cheney staffers. They said at one point, the president held what was termed a private conversation with Mr. Cheney regarding the Feb. 11 incident. Hours later, Mr. Cheney, who kept away from reporters, explained the incident in an interview with Fox News on Feb. 15.
"Nobody on the president's staff could get to Cheney, let alone tell him what to do," the source said. "At that point, the president picked up the phone and suggested that Cheney get his story out fast."
The sources said Mr. Cheney, 65, has been struggling with the departure of his closest aides. In addition to Mr. Libby, Mr. Cheney's media adviser, Steve Schmidt, has left to manage the re-election campaign of California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger.
Mr. Bush, the sources said, has rejected the advice from circles close to his father, the former president, to dismiss Mr. Cheney. They say Mr. Bush has long regarded Mr. Cheney as the experienced hand in national security, as well as being trusted by the conservative wing of the Republican Party.
"The Libby case is far more lethal than the hunting accident," another GOP source said. "If the heat gets too much, Cheney might say his health requires him to leave office. Whatever happens, the president will make sure it's handled delicately."
Now this is an interesting story. There has never been a vice president who has gathered such unprecedented power, as that of Dick Cheney. George Bush may be the President of the United States, and enjoy all the trappings of the White House and Oval Office. However, the Bush administration has been greatly influenced by the Vice President--the war in Iraq and the indoctrination of PNAC as U.S. policy, the role of Haliburton in Iraq's reconstruction, or perhaps even the Valerie Plame outing? Cheney worked in both the Nixon and Ford administrations, where he saw what he believed was an erosion of presidential power at the hands of Congress. Cheney even admits to this erosion of power. Consider this quote:
Almost 30 years later, back in the White House as vice president, Cheney has spoken regretfully of the weakening of the presidency after Watergate.
''In 34 years, I have repeatedly seen an erosion of the powers and the ability of the president of the United States to do his job," Cheney declared on ABC in 2002.
This is a man who has accumulated unprecedented power for the presidency, and personal power as the principle advisor to a bumbling George Bush.
But there has been some problems with Cheney's rise to the top. The big problem has been his desire for secrecy, and his utter contempt for accountability. This has certainly been reflected with the scandals that have tainted the vice president's office--specifically Valerie Plame, the energy task force, and even Cheney's hunting accident. All of this projects a negative image to the Bush White House, and to the incredibly poor polling numbers that Cheney has with the American public. And all of these scandals certainly provide such friction between the president and his vice president. But can the president afford to replace Cheney? Can the Bush White House operate a more improved foreign and domestic policy agenda if Cheney is forced to "retire?" Not that they have a currently effective foreign and domestic policy agenda today, considering the missteps, scandals, and screw-ups. Who would replace Cheney? I'd say that the money would be on Condi Rice as a possible vice presidential replacement to Cheney. Rice certainly has the president's ear and trust. She's got the foreign policy credentials--working both as President Bush's National Security Advisor, and as the current Secretary of State. As a vice president, Rice would be well positioned to embark on a 2008 presidential run as the Republican candidate. Finally, President Bush's selection of Condi Rice would make Rice the first women vice president, and the first black vice president. Those are all certainly positive political points that Bush can use to keep his floundering presidency afloat. The big negative of a Condi Rice vice president is that Rice has no domestic policy experience. I'm not even sure what her domestic policy viewpoints are. What political advice could Rice give to Bush regarding Katrina, health care, Social Security, tax policy, or even economic policy? I can't say.
Will Dick Cheney step down? If President Bush demanded that Cheney steps down after 2006, I believe he would. Of course, the White House would spin their PR in claiming Cheney is retiring for "health reasons." But Cheney is the driving force behind the president's political agenda--he and Karl Rove are the ones that make White House policy. The president is the sales and marketing guy, trying to pitch the White House political agenda to the American public. To replace Cheney with Condi Rice would mean a complete shake-up of the White House operations, and would require time for a new vice presidential staff to learn how the White House operates--all within the last two years of the Bush presidency. Can the president afford mistakes from an inexperience vice president and vice presidential staff, especially if the scandals take a prominent role due to Democratically-controlled congressional investigations, assuming the Democrats take control of Congress in this year's elections? There's a lot of political questions that can be raised due to Cheney's stepping down.
I'm not sure that they can be answered.
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