Bush's New Iraq Argument: It Could Be Worse

Now this Washington Post article is interesting:

Of all the words that President Bush used at his news conference this week to defend his policies in Iraq, the one that did not pass his lips was "progress."

For three years, the president tried to reassure Americans that more progress was being made in Iraq than they realized. But with Iraq either in civil war or on the brink of it, Bush dropped the unseen-progress argument in favor of the contention that things could be even worse.

The shifting rhetoric reflected a broader pessimism that has reached into even some of the most optimistic corners of the administration -- a sense that the Iraq venture has taken a dark turn and will not be resolved anytime soon. Bush advisers once believed that if they met certain benchmarks, such as building a constitutional democracy and training a new Iraqi army, the war would be won. Now they believe they have more or less met those goals, yet the war rages on.

While still committed to the venture, officials have privately told friends and associates outside government that they have grown discouraged in recent months. Even the death of al-Qaeda's leader in Iraq proved not to be the turning point they expected, they have told associates, and other developments have been relentlessly dispiriting, with fewer signs of hope.

Siege mentality and defeatism is starting to affect the Bush White House. Ever since the United States invaded Iraq, the Bush administration has been pushing this message that things are getting better in Iraq--an Iraqi constitution was being drafted, an Iraqi parliament was elected, so many Iraqi schools were being built. And yet, right after we toppled Saddam Hussein's regime, we unleashed the ethnic and religious hatreds that have been simmering in Iraq for decades, resulting in an Iraqi civil war. This Bush administration went into Iraq based on the PNAC neocon's misguided dreams on American hegemony and militaristic imperialism in the Middle East, only to see the Middle East--and the rest of the world--turn against the United States. This is the disaster that has befallen upon us--courtesy of the Bush White House.

And no amount of politically-happy-PR-spin about how things are getting better in Iraq is going to pull the United States out of the troubles she is currently in. And that is what the Bush administration has been attempting to do--trying to convince the American public that the war in Iraq is turning the corner, that the Republicans are winning the war, even as the conditions in Iraq have gotten progressively worst. The more the Bush White House pushes this discredited political spin on the Iraq war, the more foolish, incompetent, and out-of-touch-with-reality they are perceived. And with the midterm elections less than three months away, the Bush administration's arguments for staying the course in Iraq have fallen on deaf ears with the American public.

So the Bush White House and Republicans are shifting their strategy. Instead of saying that conditions are getting better in Iraq, President Bush and the Republicans are saying to the American public that if you think conditions are bad now, just wait until the Democrats take control of Congress--conditions in Iraq will get even worst. We've seen part of this strategy played out with the Republican talking points claiming that the Democrats will "cut and run," or "surrender to the terrorists" regarding Iraq. Now President Bush and the Republicans are telling the American people that if you vote Republican, then the war in Iraq will not get any worst than if you vote for the Democrats. The problem with this argument is that it was President Bush and the Republicans that got us into this war in Iraq in the first place. Continuing with the Post story:

[W]ith crucial midterm elections just 2 1/2 months away, Bush and his team are trying to turn the public debate away from whether the Iraq invasion has worked out to what would happen if U.S. troops were withdrawn, as some Democrats advocate. The necessity of not failing, Bush advisers believe, is now a more compelling argument than the likelihood of success.

Using such terms as "havoc" at Monday's news conference, Bush made no effort to suggest the situation in Iraq is improving. Instead, he argued: "If you think it's bad now, imagine what Iraq would look like if the United States leaves before this government can defend itself."

Christopher F. Gelpi, a Duke University scholar whose research on public opinion in wartime has been influential in the White House, said Bush has little choice.

"He looks foolish and not credible if he says, 'We're making progress in Iraq,' " Gelpi said. "I think he probably would like to make that argument, but because that's not credible given the facts on the ground, this is the fallback. . . . If the only thing you can say is 'Yes, it's bad, but it could be worse,' that really is a last-ditch argument."

In other words, the Republicans are trying to shift the political debate on Iraq from their own documented policy failures in Iraq, towards blaming the Democrats for causing this failure of Iraq by suggesting vague policy options. This tactic also insulates the Bush administration's program to "stay the course" in Iraq by inciting fear in the American public that a Democratic Party's changing the course in Iraq will also cause the U.S. to lose the war in Iraq. I will admit that it is a last-ditch argument for President Bush and the Republicans for selling their continued war in Iraq to the American public, and hoping that the American public will not vote the congressional Republicans out of office.

The fear that I have is that this political tactic might just work. The key of this tactic is shifting the American public's attention away from blaming President Bush and the Republicans for getting us into Iraq, towards blaming the Democrats for proposing failed strategies that cause the U.S. to lose the war in Iraq. If the Republicans succeed in this strategy, they could maintain control of Congress. The Democrats have got to keep themselves from falling into this trap of defending themselves from Republican charges of cutting and running, or timetables of American withdrawals from Iraq. The Democrats have got to pound into the American public's skulls that it was President Bush and the Republican Party that have gotten the United States into this failed war in Iraq--again and again and again! Continue blaming the Iraq war on President Bush and the Republican Party. Continue blaming President Bush and the Republicans for "staying the course" of this Iraqi disaster. That is how the Democrats can win the debate on Iraq.