[T]the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that Bush’s overall job rating has slipped and that his rating for being “honest and straightforward” has dropped to its lowest point.
The survey, which was conducted from July 8-11 among 1,009 adults, and which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points, finds that respondents, by a 49 percent-to-46 percent margin, disapprove of BushÂ’s job performance. ThatÂ’s a drop from the last NBC/Journal poll in May, when 47 percent approved and 47 percent disapproved. In addition, the only time when BushÂ’s job rating has been worse was in June 2004, when 45 percent approved of his performance.
Furthermore, only 41 percent give Bush good marks for being “honest and straightforward” — his lowest ranking on this question since he became president. That’s a drop of nine percentage points since January, when a majority (50 percent to 36 percent) indicated that he was honest and straightforward. This finding comes at a time when the Bush administration is battling the perception that its rhetoric doesn’t match the realities in Iraq, and also allegations that chief political adviser Karl Rove leaked sensitive information about a CIA agent to a reporter. (The survey, however, was taken just before these allegations about Rove exploded into the current controversy.)
The problems of the last 5 years that the Bush Administration has either ignored, such as job creation, or has driven this country into, such as the war in Iraq, is now starting to take its toll in Bush's job performance. You can only devote so muchdeceive to decieve the public, but if you don't start to tackle the problems, then the public is going to see through the web of lies you've created. The two biggest problems Bush faces today is the war in Iraq, and the jobs picture. They've flip-flopped. The article continues saying:
Also according to the poll, the public ranks the war in Iraq as the top priority the federal government should address, followed by job creation and then homeland security. In January’s NBC/Journal poll, the economy ranked first — followed by Iraq and then homeland security.
The economy started sliding into its recession at the beginning of the Bush presidency. Bush was able to get his big tax cuts through, saying they would help rejuvinate the economy and increase jobs. While the U.S. was able to recover from the recession and dotcom explosion, the recovery has been weak with job creation almost non-existent. It is a problem that has been in the American public's mind since day one of Bush's term. And Bush has either ignored this problem, or has failed to solve it.
The war in Iraq is a different matter. After the September 11 attacks, Bush shifted his attention from fighting al-Qaida in Afghanistan, towards invading Iraq. We saw a concerted White House public relations campaign to shift American public opinion away from Afghanistan towards the Iraq invasion--Iraq had weapons of mass destruction, Iraq was harboring terrorists, Saddam Hussein is an evil guy. The public bought into it, and the U.S. invaded and took over Iraq. But the Bush White House failed to seriously consider a post-war reconstruction and occupation plan once the invasion had succeeded. And because of this failure to effectively plan for post-war occupation, the U.S. is now bogged down in a low-level guerrilla insurrection against Iraqi nationalists, wanting to remove the U.S. military from Iraq, and foreign nationals and al-Qaida terrorists, coming into Iraq from neighboring countries. Bush created this problem when he went into Iraq. And as the fighting has dragged on with no end in sight, the public is realizing they were sold a bad set of goods--especially since the White House PR machine, and the Downing Street Memos have been revealed.
It is especially important to note that this survey was taken before the allegations of Karl Rove's leaking Valerie Plame's name to Time Magazine's reporter Matt Cooper had exploded into the latest controversy. So the Karl Rove controversy is not reflected in this survey. How Bush responds to the Rove controversy--whether he fires Rove, or keeps him in the White House--will be measured in the next public opinion survey.
A big change in this poll has been the nine-point drop in Bush's marks for being "honest and straightforward," from 50 percent in January to 41 percent today. Throughout his presidency, Bush has always had strong support in two catagories--the war on terrorism, and his honesty. Now his honesty rating has dropped significantly, possibly into a negative rating where more people think he is dishonest than honest. Again, people are listening to the White House spin, and are looking at the events occuring in this country that contradict the White House remarks. And if the latest Rove scandal continues to make headlines in the next six months, with Bush continuing to keep Rove on the payroll, Bush's honesty marks may drop down to the low-to-mid 30s in the next poll.
The next big controversy brewing will be the Supreme Court fight, possibly in September. According to the MSNBC story:
[S]trong majorities believe Bush would be making a positive step if he appointed a justice who continues to allow references to God in public life (63 percent), who is a woman (60 percent), and who upholds affirmative action laws and policies (55 percent). However, 50 percent think Bush would be making a mistake if his choice changes the courtÂ’s balance on Roe v. Wade.
The poll also notes that 41 percent (vs. 30 percent) want Bush to appoint a strong conservative to the court, while a nearly equal proportion (40 percent to 25 percent) would like for him to take into consideration the views of secular and liberal groups.
In some ways, the results are contradictory. The public wants a conservative on the court, who believes in God, would take into consideration the views of secular and liberal groups, and would uphold abortion. Bush has stated that he favors judges in the mold of either Antonin Scalia or Clarence Thomas--two of the most conservative members of the court. If he selects a justice with similar conservative views, there is a chance that the court could overturn abortion. Looking at these results, you could almost say that the public wants the court to remain in this ideological middle ground, somewhat conservative but willing to keep the status quo on social policies. So if Bush selects someone in the ideological mold of Sandra Day O'Conner, the public would approve and give him better marks in his job performance. The Democrats in the Senate would certainly accept a nominee similar in qulifications of O'Conner. However, Bush is under enormous pressure by the Religious Right to select a hard-line ideologue. And there's a good chance he will select either an ideologue, or possibly his friend Alberto Gonzales as a reward for Gonzales' loyalty to Bush, to the court.
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