WASHINGTON (July 11) - Major reductions in U.S. troop levels in Iraq next year appear increasingly likely, although Pentagon officials said Monday it is too early to predict the specific size and timing.
The Pentagon is eager to pull some of its 135,000 troops out of Iraq in 2006, partly because the counterinsurgency is stretching the Army and Marine Corps perilously thin as casualties mount and partly because officials believe the presence of a large U.S. force is generating tacit support for anti-American violence.
It appears highly unlikely that any significant numbers will be withdrawn before the end of the year. U.S. commanders expect the insurgency to remain at or near its current strength at least until after a scheduled October referendum on a new Iraqi constitution, followed by December elections for a new government.
Attempts by U.S. officials to predict the course of the insurgency have been off the mark, and officials have been forced more than once to scrap plans to reduce the U.S. force in Iraq. The force peaked at about 160,000 in January, when extra troops were needed to bolster security for the elections.
Anthony Cordesman, a defense analyst who closely follows progress in Iraq and visited the country last month, said in an interview that he agrees with U.S. commanders that troop reductions next year are a reasonable goal.
"The probabilities are reasonable," Cordesman said. "Is there a reasonable chance that you can begin a systematic reduction of coalition forces toward the end of the year and watch it move forward in 2006? The answer is yes. But we just don't as yet know" how political and economic progress will unfold.
Bryan Whitman, a senior Pentagon spokesman, declined to comment directly on a leaked British military assessment that raises the possibility of drastically cutting British troop strength in Iraq by the end of next year as well as sharply cutting the overall number of U.S. and allied troops by the middle of next year to 66,000.
This is the first time I've ever heard of the Pentagon even hinting at a possible troop withdrawal. This is interesting news here.
The Bush White House has got three major problems here. The first is that the Iraqi insurgency has not been contained. Terrorist attacks against U.S. troops have continued, and are getting more devastating since the insurgents are adapting new tactics and techniques at hitting American forces. The second problem is that the current American occupation forces in Iraq have been worn out. When you've got Army, Marine, and National Guard forces doing their third and fourth tours in Iraq, those individual soldiers have been used up by the war. More importantly, recruitment efforts have been sluggish, as young people have avoided enlisting into the military due to the increasing violence in Iraq. The military has failed to make its recruitment goals, providing fresh new troops to replace those in Iraq. Finally, 2006 is an election year. The war in Iraq has not gone the way the Bush White House had wanted, while poll results have shown an increasing majority of Americans starting to oppose the Bush handling of the war. If the violence of the Iraqi insurgency escalates in 2006, the American public may just turn against the Republicans in Congress, switching control of Congress from the Republicans to the Democrats.
So how do you resolve these problems? The Bush White House is certainly not going to pull out of Iraq, nor are they going to declare the war is lost. The neocons are still in control of the Bush foreign policy and will continue to use Iraq as a base to project American power in the Middle East. The White House PR machine will continue to push their rosy view that the American military is winning the war in Iraq, and that fighting the war in Iraq is fighting the war on terrorism. To reinforce this view that the U.S. is winning the war, you start leaking stories that the Pentagon will start to slowly draw down Army and Marine troops during the midterm elections of 2006. The American public wants to find a way out of Iraq. This troop reduction is a perfect political cover story. It provides a way for the Bush administration to claim they have an exit strategy from Iraq and are implementing their exit strategy during an election year. This troop draw-down will certainly counter any Democratic candidate's campaign promise of pulling the U.S. out of Iraq--Bush is already pulling troops out of Iraq, so this is a non-issue. The troop draw-down is also good Republican PR to calm a restless American public concerned over the war, and perhaps draw some moderates and independents into the Republican voting camp with claims that President Bush is on the right track through equating the war in Iraq with the war on terrorism. The sad thing is that the actual U.S. troop reductions through 2006 will be minimal, while the Republican Party and Bush White House will milk this issue for maximum political gain. And after the 2006 midterm elections are over, the Pentagon may end up halting any troop reductions, or they may start increasing U.S. forces in Iraq.
Somehow, this feels like Richard Nixon's "Vietnamization" of the war.
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