Some Thoughts about the Second La Repubblica Story

I'm going to post some thoughts and speculations about this second 3-part story from La Repubblica concerning a connection between U.S. war-planning, SISMI intelligence and the fake Niger documents, and an Iranian connection. The translation of the La Repubblica expose is on the Nur al-Cubicle blogsite. Quotes from the story will be italicized.

And we'll start practically from the beginning. For us Italians, recounts the high-ranking SISMI official to La Repubblica, the war on Iraq was already underway in the days before Christmas, 2002. He smiles.

He tells us: "It was a novelty, a revolution for our intelligence services. Never before in its history has SISMI been so prominently involved in military ground operations and a major role in planning a war campaign, to boot." I'm going to guess that the high-ranking SISMI official is none other than Nicolo Pollari, who was involved with forging the Niger documents with Rocco Martino to first sell to the French, and then to the Americans. It wouldn't surprise me that Pollari is smug about his role--I mean, here is a situation where Italian intelligence actually fluxommed both the British MI6, and the White House Office of Special Plans.

Now here is where the story takes and interesting turn:

The story of Italian military intervention in Iraq begins when the resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, Michael Ledeen, sponsored by Defense Minister Antonio Martino, debarks in Rome with Pentagon men in tow to meet a handful of "Iranian exiles." The meeting is organized by SISMI. In an Agency "safe house" near Piazza di Spagna (however, other sources have told us it was a reserved room in the Parco dei Principi Hotel).

Twenty men are gathered around a large table, covered by maps of Iraq, Iran and Syria. The big cheese are Lawrence Franklin and Harold Rhode of the Office of Special Plans, Michael Ledeen of the AIE, a SISMI chief accompanied by his assistant (the former is a balding man between 46 and 48 years of age; the latter is younger, around 38, with braces on his teeth) and some mysterious Iranians.

Pollari confirms the meeting to La Repubblica: "When [Defense Minister Martino] asked me to organize the meeting, I became curious. But it was my job and I wasn't born yesterday. It's true, my men were also present at the meeting. I wanted to know what was cooking. It's also true that there were maps of Iraq and Iran on the table. I can tell you those Iranians were not exactly 'exiles'. The came and went from Tehran with their passports with no difficulty whatsoever as if they were transparent to the eyes of the Pasdaran."

I'm not sure what to make of this. White House Office of Special Plans officials working with both SISMI and Iranian intelligence officials in setting up Italian intervention during the U.S. invasion of Iraq? But there's more: La Repubblica spins this tale from a different perspective:

But to make some sense out of the confusion, you have to listen to an American intelligence source, who has requested anonymity. He tells us: "You Italians have always underestimated the work of conversion carried out Ahmed Chalabi, the chairman of Iraqi National Congress. You tend to omit this chapter from your side of the story because you think Ahmed concerns only the Americans. But that's not the way it is: he is also your business, far beyond anything you currently believe or imagine."

So what do we know about Ahmed Chelabi? The darling of the Neocons, Chalabi has been charged by the hawks in the Pentagon to pass intel on WMD proliferation to European intelligence agencies supposedly garnered from presumed scientists, who have defected from Baghdad. The person charged with 'intelligence gathering' and story invention is Aras Habib Karim, Chalabi's personal intelligence man.

Aras is a key player. He coordinates the Intelligence Collection Programme. He supervises and fabricates the 'output' of the dissidents. He is a Shi'ite Kurd just under 50, extremely clever, consumately evil and a magician of double-cross and document forgery. But there is something peculiar about him. The CIA has long considered him an 'Iranian agent.' A second key player is an American, Francis Brooke.

The bogus Italian dossier on the Niger uranium turns up [at the meeting] also, and we don't know exactly why--because Chalabi is in possession of it. Brooke is responsible for liaison between Condoleezza Rice and Paul Wolfowitz and between the Pentagon and the Iraqi National Congress. He is more heeded in Tehran than Chalabi.
So if I understand this, Chalabi is playing both the American and Iranian sides for his own self-interest. We know Chalabi is an Iraqi exile who wants nothing more than to depose Saddam. The Bush White House, with Cheney, Rumsfeld, Rice, Wolfowitz, want to take over Iraq and enact the PNAC Doctrine. And Iran wants nothing more than to control the Shi'ite regions of Iraq, expanding their own influence in the Middle East. These two characters Aras Habib Karim, and Francis Brooke are also interesting. Aras is Chalabi's personal intelligence player. You can bet he's going to give anything that helps his--and Chalabi's--personal gain in pushing the U.S. towards toppling Saddam. The CIA claims Aras is an Iranian agent. Aras could be. However, since Chalabi is working with the neocons and the White House in marketing their Iraq war, there's a good chance that the Bush White House could look the other way regarding Chalabi's people who are of dubious character. Brook is interesting in that he could have been a middleman between Chalabi and the White House regarding the forged Niger documents.

Who gave Chalabi the forged Niger documents? Did Brooke give them to Chalabi from the Office of Special Plans? Or did Chalabi get them from Aras, then gave them to Brooke, who gave them to the Office of Special Plans? Or did Chalabi get them from an unkown third source? Continuing on with the story:

Our US intelligence source continues: "Ahmed Chelabi and his right-hand men, Karim and Brooke, travel with the Pentagon and American Enterprise Institute teams. Here's an example: The three men who alternate in 2004 in Baghdad at Chelabi's side as a "liaison officer" with the Pentagon are Michael Rubin, Chairman of the American Enterprise Institute; Harold Rhode, aide to Douglas Feith at the Office of Special Plans and 'Islamic Affairs Advisor' to Paul Wolfowitz. They were already serving in this capacity on the eve of the invasion."

The meeting called in Rome assembles the representatives of all the teams: Michael A. Ledeen of the American Enterprise Institute, Larry Franklin and Harold Rhode of the Office of Special Plans, the colonels of the Iraqi National Congress and in addition, the Iraqi Shi'ites of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and of course, the Guardians of the Revolution. All these actors gathered in Rome. Wouldn't you say that's interesting? Yes, very interesting, indeed.
So a meeting was called in Rome. You've got Chalabi, the Office of Special Plans, the Iraqi National Congress, SCIRI, and now these Guardians of the Revolution? What was said in this meeting?

Here's something else that's interesting:

An Iraq liberated from Sunni power means major political influence by Tehran and good prospects for the handover of the government to the Shi'a of the Supreme Revolutionary Council led by Ayatollah Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim, who is both supported and protected by Iran, together with its military wing, the Sadr Brigades (7 to 15 thousand militiamen). It is no surprise that Chalabi's team (no matter who they are, the colonels or the Iranian agents) is welcomed in Tehran as dignitaries and is feted with ceremony usually reserved for foreign diplomatic delegations.

It is in this political context that SCIRI collaborates with the Bush Administration in the fabrication of the pretext for war. Together with the Intelligence Collection Programme, Aras Habib Karim massages the information from the Iraqi defectors. SCIRI offers the Pentagon a confirmation of their seemingly 'independent' revelations which are in reality agreed with Chalabi's group with the guidance of Tehran's intelligence services.
An "Islamic" Iraq is certainly in Iran's best interest--especially if Iran can influence Iraq's foreign and domestic policy to Iran's best interests. Even if Iraq splits into religious and ethnic factions in a civil war, Iran would be able to control the Shi'ite factions through the Shi'a of the Supreme Revolutionary Council, with its political and military wings. No wonder the Iranians are bankrolling Chalibi.

This SCIRI collaberation also makes a great con game on the Bush neocons. Aras Habib Karim messages information from Iraqi defectors that SCIRI provides confirmation, providing independent intelligence revelations, even though Aras Karim is working for Chalibi, and SCIRI is supported and protected by Iran (Who is also providing intelligence agents to Chalabi, along with Karim's connection with Tehran).

There's more:

In the Rome meeting held at the Parco dei Principi Hotel, or in the safe house near the Spanish Steps, the paths of three intelligence networkd will cross: Nicolli Pollari's SISMI, Ahmed Chalabi's Iraqi National Congress and SCIRI and the B Sadr Brigades led by Muhammad and Abdalaziz al-Hakim. The integration of the "processing" and "output" of the three "networks" will provide essential information to the Anglo-American war planners and above all, a concrete estimation of Saddam's defenses, from the willingness to fight of his generals to the arsenal of weaponry at their disposal, in addition to the influence operations. Each of the three intelligence networks has an ace in the hole which will be useful to the Pentagon.

SISMI boasts of its good contacts with Iraqi officers, who had trained in Italy during 1980's. Over time they have become informers and moles. Meanwhile, Iraqi National Congress relys on defectors. Muhammad Baqir al-Hakim explains to La Repubblica that SCIRI, thanks to is independent militias in Baghdad, in Iraqi Kurdistan and in southern Iran [Iraq?], is able to keep the country under constant surveillance. From Karbala and Najaf to Basrah, down to the Faw Peninsula and on to the Kuwaiti border, nothing escapes the underground intelligence networks.

The Pentagon's operations planning 'orients' warfare on the ground towards intelligence that espionage agencies will snatch behind the lines. The data will be collected by the Anglo-American Joint Command in real time, cross-checked and processed, then transformed into instructions to combat units. The idea is very simple: To 'illuminate' from inside the country enemy targets, defensive military positions and the counterattack capabilities of its irregular units embedded among the civilian populace. There is even a secondary aim which is possibly more important.

Behind the lines, infiltrated agents must prepare the groundwork for a 'secret pact' (safqa in Arabic) for the surrender of the country. The pact provides for a bundle of safe-conducts for the commanders of the Republican Guard, the Ba'ath Party militias and Saddam's Fedayeen. Later, the Americans begin to have second thoughts about the lavish payouts, the offers of residency in the United States for the officers and their families, and in particular, the prominent US connection to certain Iraqi opposition factions, especially the Iraqi National Congress.

Alongside SCIRI and Chelabi's men, Italy is able to lend a hand in the horsetrading with the regime that goes on in Baghdad and in Basrah, places well familiar to Italian military counterespionage. Moreover, the first phase of the Mesopotamian adventure (up to the moment of Bush's Mission Accomplished announcement) was merely a question of simple corruption within a crumbing regime whose officials had sold out en masse to the CIA. SISMI agents now get to work. And moment has come to return to the terrace of the Eden hotel, to hear the rest of what our SISMI man has to say.
So if I'm getting this right, not only is SISMI, Chalabi's group, and SCIRI feeding the Bush White House cherry-picked intelligence to support the war, but they're also laying the groundwork for providing safe conduct for Iraqi elites in the military, and the Ba'ath Pary.

It worked almost too well. Pollini continues his narration:

"When we began to enter into contact with Iraqi generals, regular army officers and Ba'ath officials to invite them to defect, we were dealing with desperate men. They were prepared to bargain away their wealth of information in exchange for their physical and political survival after the war. We were able to pass on the intelligence they gave us in realtime which turned out to be decisive in the theater of operations. Just to give you an example, we were working the night before the invasion, or rather, at dawn--when the smart bombs and Tomahawk missiles began to rain down on Baghdad at around 5:30 am on March 20th.

Allied Command expected an immediate reply, which would have been normal. But the Italians were already on the ground with 'eyes' to take things in. Our sources are inside Saddam's General Staff and they tell us that missile batteries around Basrah have been activated. Saddam intended to strike Kuwait City. But the batteries were put out of commission. In places where Italian intelligence has no reach, sources inside the Shi'ite network are at work, which helps us greatly. Our SISMI man become very serious and swells with pride as if he wants to ensure that we are paying attention.

It was an information war. And this time we had good, direct and first-hand information because we were actually there. Important information, too, collected by our own men and confirmed by the Shi'ites--that the mined bridges in Baghdad would not be destroyed. And more detailed information, such as the number of armored columns deployed from Kirkuk towards Baghdad. And essential information, such as the whereabouts of Abu Abbas (The Palestinian who lead the Achille Lauro hijacking. Abbas was arrested in 2003 and died inside a US prison camp in March 2004.) in Baghdad. They Americans are overjoyed. They did not expect such penetrating and effective work from us inside Saddam's military. We are the pride of Washington. The Pentagon wrote a letter full of praise to Berluscon....."
The Italians knew of two big things here. The first is that they knew there were no WMDs in Iraq, that the intelligence documents showing Iraq purchasing uranium yellowcake in Niger were forgeries--created by SISMI. They also knew, through this collaberation between SISMI, SCIRI, and Chalibi, that the Iraqi army was:

made out of paper- mache and poorly armed--even for a small-scale conventional war, the consequences of the drawn-out war with Iran, the invasion of Kuwait in the 1991 Gulf War, the long-lasting imposed no-fly zones, the embargo and the sanctions.
In conversations between Italian agents and the Iraqi officers trained in Italian military academies, at Finmeccanica [an Italian defense company] and at Selenia [a defense communications company] who eventually became generals, demolishes any hypothesis of SaddamÂ’s WMD with a sneer and a dismissive wave of the hand.

The Iraqi officers explain how their tanks and armored carriers are relics of the 1980-88 war with Tehran and lack spare parts. They are basically unusable pieces of junk. They reveal to our agents that Saddam's Armed Forces, from the lowliest regiment to the General Staff, are completely demoralized, inadequately equipped and shoeless. This is decisive information. Coalition command can now order the invasion without the slightest concern of taking 37,000 casualties, as predicted by a statistical model of conventional warfare (15 per cent of a 250 thousand-man force).
If this is true, where the Iraqi army was pretty much a paper tiger, then much of the claims that the Bush White House made regarding Iraq as a threat to the U.S., with "mushroom clouds appearing over New York" were basically lies. It would be interesting to investigate whether American military intelligence collaberated with Italian intelligence regarding Iraqi military strength, and whether the American military also knew that the Iraqi military was also a paper tiger.

La Repubblican continues with this train of thought:

The truth does not escape the warfare experts. "Short of an admission on the part of US generals and politicians that they were incompetent or insane or criminal," says General Fabio Mini, author of "War in the Aftermath of War", Einaudi (2002). "If there had been a real risk of WMD deployment, then operations planning and tactics would have been far different.

A series of chemical or biological attacks, even if limited, would have produced very high casualties. Other protective gear would have been necessary, in addition to gasmasks, and more efficient, modern equipment would have been required by the NBC (Nuclear, Biological and Chemical) brigades. Operational, logistical and medical planning would have been far different and we would not have seen the compact columns of trucks and tracked combat vehicles which ventured out into the desert from Day One.

Given the conditions in which Coalition troops were seen facing combat or on the move (personnel seen riding atop tanks, heads poking out of turrets with no protective gear as they traveled in immense columns with little or no clearance between vehicles), it was clear that a missile or heavy artillery-delivered WMD attack was, a priori, an impossibility from a military standpoint. In those conditions, even a grenade attack would have been just as damaging."

General Mini concludes: "From a strictly military point of view, the commanders had to have been certain that Iraqi possessed no WMD or the vectors to deliver them or that any WMD and associated vectors were destroyed before the war. Even so, the Coalition knew perfectly well that if indeed the Iraqi military had possessed all that, it would not have used it."
From what I've read, Italy is at the center of this giant con game. SISMI feeds both the Niger forgeries to the Bush White House as proof to start the war in Iraq, then feeds the American military information on Iraq's paper tiger army. Italy also works--through SISMI's collaberation with SCIRI and Chalibi--to pull Iraq's military and political elites out of the country as the American invasion progresses through. Finally, through working with Chalabi and SCIRI, Italy is also helping Iran expand its influence in Iraq. If even half of this is true, it is an amazing con game that Italy played. In fact, Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi even admits to the intelligence war, when on April 24, 2003 in Protorotondo, when SISMI's role in the war is reported in La Repubblica, Berlusconi boasts that: "ItÂ’s true, and I believe that we performed a useful function for the Western democracies. Our participation in the Coalition was never in doubt and our intelligence people collaborated with the allies."
Much of the rest of the La Repubblica story delves into the Italian government's stonewalling in providing details regarding Italy's role in this fiasco. La Repubblica claims that: Berlusconi's remarks in Sardegna are perceived as over-adventurous in Rome. Palazzo Chigi rushes to make a rectification by issuing a single memo. The memo must be brief in words and wise in temper. The participation in the war must be hidden and a political warning must be broadcast--because everyone knows the score. Even if Italy's non-belligerence has been violated or may be at least be debated, who is in a position to cast the first stone? The Prime Minister's office confirms: As required by its institutional mandate, the Service has carried out intelligence activity but certainly no military activity. We categorically reject any suggestion of Italy's participation in combat operations. Our work on the ground was restricted to illuminating military targets.

If one excludes that by 'illuminating military targets' Palazzo Chigi means 'turning on a flashlight', or that at the seat of government no one is aware that, with the world being what it is, there is no military action without accompanying intelligence work, then the communique recognizes SISMI's involvement in Iraq, and not on its own initiative, naturally. We confirm, continues the memo, that both government and the Parliamentary intelligence oversight committee are informed of the nature of the intelligence work carried out by our clandestine services.

So the Government knows and so does the Parliamentary intelligence oversight committee, chaired by a member of the opposition, the former Interior Minister Enzo Bianco. Everyone (government, the majority, the opposition, oversight committees) is aware of the country's very Italian history of arrangements and cunning. Here's what they say: Formally, we have no part in the war. We are non-belligerents. Our contingent is there for humanitarian purposes. But in reality, by doing an end-run around our Constitution, Italy is present on the field of battle. Not with weapons, troops and tanks (the disastrous state of our economy and our national excessive dependence on Mother would not permit it), but with penetration and infiltration by secret agents organized by the Pentagon and working in concert with the Shi'ites of SCIRI and the Iraqi National Congress.

The absolute oblivion into which, in a matter of hours, the presence of Italian military intelligence in a theater of war and the pivotal role played for the Anglo-American Coalition is cast and thereby kept from public opinion and political debate (not to mention the forged uranium dossier) is a watershed between past and future for our clandestine services and our national security policy. It's the beginning of a new season. It's an epiphany. You could say that mingling with the men and the means of the Pentagon has produced in Italy what has already taken place in the United States: the politicization of intelligence.
Somehow, that doesn't surprise me.