Some Thoughts About the Special Election

The special elections are now over, and it seems that both California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's special election propositions and the Republican dreams of retaining both the New Jersey and Virginia governorships have been shot down.

So what does this all mean?

First, the California special election. Schwarzenegger was swept into the governor's office after the public got fed up with Gray Davis' incompetence. Schwarzenegger campaigned as a Republican moderate, who promised such lofty ideals of "Sweeping the corruption out of Sacramento," and "giving the government back to the California people." The first problem with the Governator is that while he campaigned as a moderate, he started governing from the right--he himself was corrupted by the politics of his big business special interests, and conservative dreams of turning California into a "red state." He started to believe that the legislature was the heart of all evil in California politics. Excuse me? The state legislature was also elected by the people of California. Schwarzenegger decided to govern through campaigning with his special election initiatives rather than governing through compromise with the legislature. And the Governator became "governated!"

But there's more here regarding the California special elections. Schwarzenegger has been wounded politically. Not only has his legislative agenda been shot down yesterday, but he's also facing the '06 midterm elections and his own political future. He staked his claim by trying to govern to the right and cozying up to the big business special interests, rather than staying in the center. As a result, his poll numbers have significantly dropped down. Any attempts of Schwarzenegger trying to shift back to the center are going to be met with serious opposition by the Democratically-controlled legislature. They are not going to forgive the Governator's campaigning for these initiatives--especially Props 76, and 77, which would reduce their own power at the hands of the governor's office. The legislature will have their own political skins to protect with their re-election. They are not going to give Schwarzenegger a major political victory of which he can tout in his own '06 re-election campaign. So you can expect the legislature in Sacramento to be effectively shut down during the campaign. This is also going to hurt the Governator, if he cannot tout any accomplishments during his term, and to be constantly attacked due to his alignment for these extreme propositions, and to the special interests.

There's also a greater, overarching issue regarding this special election. This issue is that the Republicans have lost the trust and respect of the American public in governing. Californians shot down Schwarzenegger's end-run of pushing his legislative agenda through the special election. Virginians chose Democrat Tim Kaine over Republican Jerry Kilgore--even after President Bush made a last-minute campaign stop to a Kilgore rally. Virginia is usually classified as a "red state." And in New Jersey, Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Corzine defeated Republican businessman Doug Forrester. In fact, the only victory the Republicans can tout is Michael Bloomberg's re-election to New York City mayor--and Bloomberg outspent almost $74 million to defeat Democrat Fernando Ferrer in a ratio of 10-1 (See Yahoo News). Republicans are starting to notice that the political winds are shifting against their favor--President George Bush's poll numbers are down, Valerie Plamegate is still a thorn in Karl Rove and Dick Cheney's side, Scooter Libby trial is about to start, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is under SEC investigation for insider trading, Tom DeLay is indicted for money laundering, ubber-lobbyist Jack Abramoff is political poison for the Congressional Republicans. These are a few of the scandals that are now starting to bear its bitter fruit to the Republican claims of honesty, integrity, and good governance. The more that Americans are forced to taste this bitter fruit, the greater the woes of the Republican Party.