Republican Jerry Kilgore is locked in a tight race for governor. The outcome of Tuesday's election will either reassure the party—or cause real concern about the 2006 midterm elections.
Even for Election Eve, Kilgore is unusually nervous. On Tuesday night, he will either be Governor-elect of the Old Dominion, one of the nation's most reliably Republican states, or poster boy for his national party's woes heading into next year's mid-term elections. "We can't even win in Virginia?" Republicans will be asking themselves if the former state attorney general does not pull it out in his neck-and-neck race against the Democratic Lieutenant Governor, Timothy M. Kaine. "The conventional wisdom will be that the Republicans are on the verge of a massive meltdown in 2006," says the University of Virginia's Larry Sabato, whose quotes to national reporters will do much to define that conventional wisdom. "It's easy enough to say these off-year elections are a harbinger," Sabato tells TIME, "but history shows that is only rarely the case." Activists in both parties are crediting Kaine, 47, with an edge in closing momentum over Kilgore, 44. The two are tied in key polls and Democrats usually need to be up considerably to overcome the Republican turnout machine in "the mother of Presidents." Political historians point out, however, that if Kilgore triumphs, it would be the first time since 1973 that the party in the White House had won the Virginia statehouse.
This is going to be an interesting race. Here you have a Democratic Lt. Governor Tim Kaine pulling up to a neck-and-neck race against Republican Kilgore in a stallwart Republican state of Virginia. Is this race going to be a referendum for continued Republican leadership--even in the face of mounting criticisms against the Republican -controlled Congress and Bush White House over a number of issues? Or will the voters in Virginia be so angry at the Republicans that they will kick Kilgore out because of his party status?
If Kilgore does not win in Virginia, it is certainly trouble for the GOP. The trouble with the GOP is that they've aligned themselves so closely with big business, special intrests groups, and the right-wingnut evangelists. Look at the scandals that have turned up against the Republicans in Congress, and with President Bush. You've got Tom DeLay charged with money laundering, and also investigated for his close ties with lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Bill Frist is investigated by the SEC for insider trading violations. President Bush has staked his presidency to the neocon's PNAC doctrine by invading Iraq, then lying to the American public about Iraq's lack of WMDs. And we can't forget the Valerie Plame scandal that has tainted the White House, with the continued possibility that Karl Rove and Dick Cheney are involved in the scandal. The Republican Congress refuses to investigate the White House use of failed intelligence regarding Iraq's WMDs. And Big Oil, Big Financial, and other big business continue to get big tax cuts and preferential treatment, while the Republicans in Congress continue to slash domestic spending on welfare, food stamps, education, training, and such.
It will be interesting to watch this race.
No comments:
Post a Comment