WASHINGTON, March 7 — The day-to-day commander of American forces in Iraq has recommended that the heightened American troop levels there be maintained through February 2008, military officials said Wednesday.
The White House has never said exactly how long it intends the troop buildup to last, but military officials say the increased American force level will begin declining in August unless additional units are sent or more units are held over.
The confidential assessment by the commander, Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, reflects the military’s new counterinsurgency doctrine, which puts a premium on sustained efforts to try to win over a wary population. It also stems from the complex logistics of deploying the five additional combat brigades that are being sent to Iraq as part of what the White House calls a “surge” of forces.
So the Pentagon is basically saying that the troop surge has to continue until February 2008. It is an interesting month to choose, since February 5, 2008 is the month that California has decided to front-load its presidential primary in order to have a greater say in the 2008 presidential election. And it is not just California here. The Iowa caucuses are scheduled for January 14, and the New Hampshire primary is scheduled for January 22. Nevada has moved its caucuses to January 19, and South Carolina's primary is slated for January 29. States that are considering moving their primaries to February 5 include Arizona, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Kansas, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, and North Carolina. What is important to realize here is that this 2008 primary will probably be decided by the end of February. And with it, we'll see the front-runners for both the Democratic and Republican Parties.
So what does the February primaries have to do with the Iraq troop surge timeline? The Iraq war will be the defining issue for this 2008 election. The Bush administration has committed this troop surge in order to salvage Bush's legacy. But the poll numbers have been showing Bush stuck in the basement regarding his job approval ratings. This is a huge liability for the Republican Party for both committing itself to the Bush agenda, and for the current GOP presidential candidates--with the exception of Senator Sam Brownback--also supporting the Bush troop surge. We will probably know whether this current troop surge will be either a success or failure by September or October of this year. If the current Bush troop surge is a failure, then the Republicans will certainly need some time to spin a new excuse for this latest Bush failure. It is all about the elections here. It is all about maintaining the troops in Iraq, maintaining the GOP support for the war, maintaining the GOP "support the troops" mantra while blaming the Democrats as "supporting the terrorists." Continuing the Bush war is the only Iraq policy that the Republicans have here. It is the only argument the Republicans can make--admitting that the war is a mistake, or a loss, will politically destroy President Bush's legacy, and the Republican Party's credibility with the American voters. Thus, it is important to continue the troop surge until February 2008, or even to extend the surge further into the election year.
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