Iowa caucus today....

Well, that day has finally arrived! After almost a year of presidential campaign stomping and stumping (perhaps even two or three years for some of the candidates), we are finally at the Iowa caucuses for both the Democratic and Republican parties. The political pundits prolific prognostications are enough to drive anyone to take two aspirin, with a shot of Jagermeister, until the entire political mess is sorted out today, and to figure out who we will have as a winner for both political parties. Of course, this probably won't make much of a difference, since the New Hampshire primary is January 8th. But I'm going to include the last-minute news stories on both political parties candidate's campaigning from MSNBC, New York Times, and The Washington Post.

But what really interests me here is the latest polling data from the Des Moines Register on the races. For the Democrats:

Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has widened his lead in Iowa over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards heading into Thursday's nominating caucuses, according to The Des Moines Register's final Iowa Poll before the 2008 nominating contests.

Obama's rise is the result in part of a dramatic influx of first-time caucusgoers, including a sizable bloc of political independents. Both groups prefer the Illinois senator in what has been a very competitive campaign.

Obama was the choice of 32 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, up from 28 percent in the Register's last poll in late November, while Clinton, a New York senator, held steady at 25 percent and Edwards, a former North Carolina senator, was virtually unchanged at 24 percent.

Poll showing Iowa voter's choices for the Democratic candidates. From The Des Moines Register.

The poll reflects continued fluidity in the race even as the end of the yearlong campaign nears. Roughly a third of likely caucusgoers say they could be persuaded to choose someone else before Thursday evening. Six percent were undecided or uncommitted.

The poll also reveals a widening gap between the three-way contest for the lead and the remaining candidates. No other Democrat received support from more than 6 percent of likely caucusgoers.

The survey's margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

The telephone survey of 800 likely Democratic caucusgoers was taken Dec. 27-30.

A couple of points here. First is that the poll is showing just a slight lead for Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton by 7 points. It may be a lead, but it is still very close. We have a horse race between Obama and Clinton for Iowa. Whoever wins Iowa here will have a major boost for the New Hampshire primary, which is next week. One thing I will say is that John Edwards needs either to win Iowa, or perhaps get into second place, in order to keep his campaign going. If Edwards ends up in third place behind Obama and Clinton, then he really doesn't have a chance to win the nomination. So this is an interesting race for the Democrats.

Another interesting point to make is that turnout is heavy in Iowa:

DES MOINES, Iowa - Democrats Barack Obama, Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards fought for first Thursday in Iowa's presidential caucuses, a multimillion-dollar exercise in grass-roots democracy and the initial, critical test in the campaign for the party's 2008 nomination. Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee vied for the Republican victory.

Iowans were summoned to evening caucuses at 1,781 precincts from Adel to Zingle, in schools, firehouses and community centers where the candidates themselves could not follow. At one Democratic caucus site, Westridge Elementary School in west Des Moines, there was heavy turnout, with 267 people registering. In 2004, only 86 Iowans participated there.

It seems that Iowans are flocking the caucuses with a desire for change, perhaps for both Democratic and Republican parties. And this may explain the slight lead that Obama has opened up against Clinton. Barack Obama is fresh and exciting as a candidate--he's practically new to the political scene, when compared to Hillary Clinton, who the voters know from her days as First Lady and as a New York Senator. This is not to say that Obama will win because he represents change for Iowa Democrats. But it is an interesting aspect in this race.

Now I want to go into the Des Moines Register's poll for the Republican candidates:

Mike Huckabee, a former Baptist minister riding a wave of support from fundamentalist Christians, tops Mitt Romney for first place in a new Des Moines Register poll of Iowans planning to attend Thursday's Republican caucuses.

In a battle of former governors from Arkansas and Massachusetts, Huckabee leads Romney, 32 percent to 26 percent.

"I really like it that he is a religious man and social conservative. That is pretty important to me, especially the right to life," said Huckabee supporter Alyssa Stealey, 20, of Charter Oak, who is also drawn to his call for tax reform.

The size of Huckabee's lead is virtually unchanged from the last Iowa Poll taken in late November, despite Romney's hard-charging effort to regain the top spot that he held earlier in the year.

Poll showing Iowa voter's choices for the Republican candidates. From The Des Moines Register.

The new poll, taken over four days ending on Sunday, shows a resurgent Arizona Sen. John McCain grabbing third place in the Republican race for the first-in-the-nation caucuses. McCain tallies support from 13 percent in the poll -- a 6-point improvement since late November.

"He is not too far to the left or too far to the right," said Keith Olejniczak, a 42-year-old poll participant from Cedar Rapids who makes McCain his second choice after Huckabee because of McCain's experience and leadership ability. "I think (both candidates) could get more things done from both sides of Congress," said Olejniczak, who works in transportation.

On McCain's heels in the poll at 9 percent each are Texas Rep. Ron Paul, whose support in Iowa has gradually been building, and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

What I find really fascinating is how Mike Huckabee has come up, from out of nowhere, to take the lead in this Iowa poll. The big question here is why? I think there is a big disconnect between the GOP party elites, and leaders, verses the GOP voters.

There is an earlier post here that I want to bring up, regarding the GOP caucus. This is a November 4, 2007 post, titled WaPost poll finds Americans pessimistic, want change. In that post, I wrote:

This is a huge poll. First, the poll comes out just before the holiday season, and it reveals that Americans are pessimistic about the future of where this country is heading. We've got three-quarters of the American public favoring a different course for the country, than what President Bush has charted, and 60 percent of all Americans feel strongly that a change is needed after the Bush presidency. Even more interesting is that there is a clear majority of Democrats, independents, and half of Republicans favoring a change. Americans want change.

And here is where the 2008 presidential elections are going to become a nasty fight. In a sense, the 2008 elections will be a referendum on the Bush legacy. Bush is stepping down in January, 2009. The problems this country faces with the economy, Iraq, health care, high energy prices, inflation, will be the result of the Bush administration's irresponsibility and incompetence at dealing with these issues.

[....]

For the Republicans, it will be much more difficult. The GOP candidates will try to distance themselves away from the Bush legacy, without seeming to abandon the core 30-percent conservative base that still supports the Bush administration. In fact, Republican pollsters are saying that the 2008 vote will not be a referendum on the Bush administration, but rather about two completely new candidates.

The problem for the GOP is that they are running two races here. The first race is obviously a GOP-voter race for change. Americans on both sides of the political parties want some form of change away from the failures of this Bush administration. However, you have two different groups in the GOP trying to choose who that candidate will be for change. On one side, you have the GOP elites trying to find another "White Knight" candidate who will cozy up to the corporate and rich elite interests, while also enticing enough support from the hard-lined conservatives and evangelicals. In other words, perhaps another "White Knight" George Bush(?) So far, the GOP candidates who have come forward to claim their own "White Knight" status have shown themselves to be either corrupted, incompetent, lazy, or embroiled in scandals. John McCain is either too old, or too pro-war. Mitt Romney is too Mormon, or too-dapper-dog-pooish. Rudy Giuliani is too corrupt. Fred Thompson is too lazy. All the elites' "White Knight" candidates have really failed in one sense or another. Now let's go to the GOP voters. The voters are disgusted by the course of this country is taking under this Bush administration. They may still support the Bush administration, but they are wishing to find someone that they can relate to. Enter conservative candidate Mike Huckabee. Huckabee created just enough of an excitement among the GOP base to jump to this early lead. The problem is that we have this disconnect between what the GOP elites want, and what the voters want. They are now incompatible.

The second race that the GOP is running is a race on the Bush administration. Republican strategists would love to point out that this 2008 race is a race between two candidates--Democratic and Republican. It is not a race between two candidates. It is really a race between the Democratic presidential candidate, and the continuation of the Bush legacy. The Republican candidates have really not distanced themselves away from the Bush administration's policies--especially on the war in Iraq. There is really no difference between them, and George W. Bush. If either the economy continues to slow down, or if the war in Iraq explodes into even more violence, then voters are going to look at these GOP candidates, and ask themselves why should they continue voting Republican, when the current Republican president has sent this country over a cliff? This Bush administration is a huge albatross that can sink the GOP candidates this coming November.