Sunday, January 27, 2008

Ted Kennedy endorses Barack Obama

This is big news. From Boston.com:

WASHINGTON -- Senator Edward M. Kennedy will endorse Barack Obama for president tomorrow, breaking his year-long neutrality to send a powerful signal of where the legendary Massachusetts Democrat sees the party going -- and who he thinks is best to lead it.

Kennedy confidantes told the Globe today that the Bay State's senior senator will appear with Obama and Kennedy's niece, Caroline Kennedy, at a morning rally at American University in Washington tomorrow to announce his support.

That will be a potentially significant boost for Obama as he heads into a series of critical primaries on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5.

Kennedy believes Obama can ``transcend race'' and bring unity to the country, a Kennedy associate told the Globe. Kennedy was also impressed by Obama's deep involvement last year in the bipartisan effort to craft legislation on immigration reform, a politically touchy subject the other presidential candidates avoided, the associate said.

The coveted endorsement is a huge blow to New York Senator Hillary Clinton, who is both a senatorial colleague and a friend of the Kennedy family. In a campaign where Clinton has trumpeted her experience over Obama's call for hope and change, the endorsement by one of the most experienced and respected Democrats in the Senate is a particularly dramatic coup for Obama.

Senator Ted Kennedy is the younger brother of both President John F. Kennedy, and Senator Robert F. "Bobby" Kennedy. He is the second-longest serving member of the Senate, and is probably considered as one of the great icons for the Democratic Party. So for Kennedy to reach out and endorse Obama, after Obama's South Carolina win, is really a huge blow for Hillary Clinton's campaign. Kennedy's endorsement can provide Obama influence among old-line Democratic Party interest groups and unions. Consider this interesting detail from The Politico.com story on the news:

The Kennedy endorsement is likely to give Obama a lift among Hispanic voters because of Kennedy's passionate advocacy of immigration legislation. The Obama campaign, which lags far behind Clinton among Hispanic voters in national polls, is likely to prominently display the endorsements by both Kennedys in Latino communities.

The disclosure also comes the same weekend that the House's highest-ranking Latino, California Rep. Xavier Becerra, also announced that he is backing Obama.

Granted this is all speculation, but it will be interesting to see just how the Hispanic community responds to the Obama campaign with this latest Kennedy endorsement. What is even more interesting is whether Kennedy will campaign for Obama in the southwestern states, and perhaps California, in order to build up Hispanic support for the Obama campaign.

There is one more interesting detail to report. Also from The Politico:

The Clinton campaign launched a last-ditch effort over the last few days to stop Kennedy's move, orchestrating a flood of phone calls to Kennedy from sources ranging from union chiefs to his Massachusetts constituents.

The former president also called Kennedy in a vain attempt to keep him out of the race, a source familiar with the conversation said.

During his two terms in the White House, President Clinton made repeated overtures to the Kennedy family. So the senator’s rejection of his wife is at least as embarrassing as her 28-point loss in the South Carolina primary on Saturday.

The last thing that the Clinton campaign wanted was to have Kennedy endorse Obama before the Super Duper Tuesday. The strategy here would be for Clinton to target the Hispanic community for votes in the southwest, and California, in order to win the states with large Hispanic populations. By keeping Kennedy out of the race until after Super Duper Tuesday, where states with the large Hispanic populations would for Hillary Clinton rather than Obama, the victories in these states could give Clinton enough delegates to gain the front-runner status in order to win the Democratic nomination. Kennedy's endorsement of Obama throws this Clinton strategy of courting the Hispanic vote into a complete disarray. So even if Hillary Clinton could not get a Kennedy endorsement, the next best thing for the Clinton campaign was to keep Kennedy quiet--at least until after Super Duper Tuesday. So the Democratic race has turned itself on its head again.

More to come.

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