DES MOINES, Iowa (CNN) -- Barack Obama will win the Iowa Democratic caucus and Mike Huckabee will be the Republican winner, CNN projects, based on early results.
With 85 percent of precincts reporting, Obama had the support of 37 percent of voters, compared to 30 percent for Edwards and 30 percent for Clinton.
With 65 percent of Republican precincts reporting, Huckabee had the support of 34 percent of voters, compared to 25 percent for Mitt Romney. Fred Thompson had 14 percent and John McCain had 13.
Rudy Giuliani, who has turned the focus of his campaign to the February 5 "Super Tuesday" primaries, trailed with 4 percent.
Huckabee's victory can be attributed to his overwhelming support among evangelical voters and women, according to CNN analysis of entrance polls.
Polls taken as Iowans entered the first-in-the-nation caucuses show a tight race for both parties.
With such a close race on both sides, voter turnout is key.
[....]
Every supporter is critical in this contest, which historically produces very low turnout. The Iowa Democratic Party said 124,000 people participated in the 2004 caucuses, while the Republican Party of Iowa estimated that 87,000 people took part in the 2000 caucuses. (President Bush ran unchallenged for a second term in 2004.)
I will also say that MSNBC, New York Times, and The Washington Post are also reporting the same results.
First comments here is that we've got a huge horse race in New Hampshire. Barack Obama won Iowa, while Hillary Clinton and John Edwards tied. Of course, the votes are still being counted now. This is going to give a big boost for Obama as he goes into New Hampshire, where he can continue to project himself as a candidate of change. John Edwards also got a boost in essentially tying with Clinton. This will keep him in the race, providing him with support and campaign contributions to perhaps take on Obama in New Hampshire. The real loser here was Hillary Clinton. Clinton was the de-facto nominee, consistently leading in the national polls until after Iowa. Now Clinton is going to have to really push hard in New Hampshire, perhaps even going after Obama in attacking him. Hillary Clinton is not out of the race yet. But if Obama wins New Hampshire, then Democrats are going to ask whether Hillary Clinton can win.
For the Republicans, the quick comment here is that the GOP base chose Mike Huckabee. Going back to my previous post, I believe there is a disconnect between who the GOP elites want for a presidential candidate, and who the GOP voters want. I think that the Republican elites and party leaders want a very pro-business, conservative candidate. I don't think these elites want someone with strong Religious Right values--not another George W. Bush. So they are looking for their "White Knight" candidate. The GOP base voters are looking for someone that is also not like George W. Bush, but rather someone that can project strong, conservative values. The supposed "White Knight" candidates of John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson, and even Mitt Romney, showed themselves to be pandering to the conservative base for votes, rather than showing that they supported the conservative base. I think Huckabee was able to show the base that he was one of them, and the conservative base voted for him in Iowa.
Now the race is getting interesting.
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