MANCHESTER, N.H. - John McCain was leading Mitt Romney in New Hampshire's Republican primary, early returns showed Tuesday. On the Democrats' side, Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton battled in a race that was too close to call.
Even before the voting ended at 8 p.m. EST, there were reports of possible changes in staff and strategy in Clinton's campaign.
Weather was spring-like and participation brisk, although it remained to be seen whether New Hampshire would match the record-busting turnout of the Iowa caucuses won by Obama and Republican Mike Huckabee only five days earlier. The New Hampshire Secretary of State's office was asked to ship extra ballots to some towns that said supplies were running low.
Republicans, their national race for the nomination tangled, watched a New Hampshire contest unfold between McCain and Romney at the top of their field, with polls indicating McCain had an edge but no clearcut advantage.
Looking at the polls here, McCain has a 37 percent lead in votes counted over Romney's 28 percent, and Mike Huckabee's 12 percent. This is with 11 percent of the votes counted in New Hampshire. What does this mean, if McCain actually wins New Hampshire? The political pundits are calling this GOP race wide open, and they certainly have something here. The GOP is fracturing here with this race. Huckabee is picking up the evangelical vote, giving him the win in Iowa. McCain picked up the independent vote, enabling him to win in New Hampshire. The GOP elites may be scared of Huckabee because he is too socially conservative, while McCain is considered too "maverick" for their taste. The GOP elites' choice of Rudy Giuliani is going nowhere at 9 percent of the votes in New Hampshire, while also getting only 3 percent of the votes in the Iowa caucus. Giuliani is staking his presidential claim in Florida. The only consistent GOP candidate here has been Mitt Romney, coming in second in both Iowa and New Hampshire. We have a GOP electorate that doesn't really know who to rally around for a presidential candidate. So the electorate is splitting their votes among the different candidates. We may not know who the GOP nominee is until well after the February 5th's Super Duper Tuesday. And even with the Super Duper Tuesday, we may see different candidates winning different states. This could result in the GOP nominee to be chosen during the convention, if none of the nominees have the required delegates needed for the nomination.
Now let's go with the Democratic race--it is still too close to call. So far, Hillary Clinton has the lead with 40 percent of the votes, verses Barack Obama's 36 percent, with 16 percent of the precincts reporting. If Clinton wins New Hampshire, we could have a situation where both candidates will slug it out. We have a race here where Obama is expressing change and hope for the Democratic Party, while Clinton is expressing leadership and experience. In addition, we've got a situation where the first African-American, or first woman, could become president. These are very powerful messages that are both appealing, and exciting, to the Democratic base. I don't know who will the nomination, between Obama and Clinton. This Democratic nomination could also come down to the convention, with the horse-trading between the candidates.
More to come.
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